Halifax +1.1% (YoY -12.1%)

Dan:_4

Full report can be found here:

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/

and sig updated.

kennyboy66_2

Only another £100k to fall on the Halifax figures and the magical 70% will have been reached.

You have been warned.

System

May as well stick it here as well then

MrDT

Think we'll see MoM rises once the magic QE tap has been turned off?

Banks are making huge losses, and if it weren't for the bailouts and QEasing they'd have no money to lend out. Tax payer funding is not infinite, eventually the stealing from the future must stop. When that happens the correction will resume.

Sucker rally imo.

chucky

MrDT wrote: »

Think we'll see MoM rises once the magic QE tap has been turned off?

maybe - i don't see why there wouldn't. but i wouldn't bet on them rising either...
but you have to admit that +1.1% is a lot compared to the end of 2008...

MrDT wrote: »

Banks are making huge losses, and if it weren't for the bailouts and QEasing they'd have no money to lend out. Tax payer funding is not infinite, eventually the stealing from the future must stop. When that happens the correction will resume.

some are, some aren't... the better run ones are making money... Barclays, HSBC etc... not Lloyds or Northern Rock though

MrDT wrote: »

Sucker rally imo.

maybe - but if it's not who's the sucker?

i think it will be flat at the end of the year and a very small increase next year.

wolvoman

The rises aren't sustainable.

Within 100 metres of my place 3 new 'for sale' boards have appeared in the last 2 weeks when none have been seen in the whole street for 6 months.

Supply will rise and this will prevent any more price gains for now - the economy just can't support too many sales.


However houses are affordable and so they won't crash anymore either. Stagnation here we come.

chucknorris

I see this as very good news I had assumed prices would fall another 10% before a couple of years of stagnation, whilst that may still happen I think it is becoming increasingly unlikely, we could actually be entering the stagnation period right now. But more to the point falling more than 10% more is becoming even more unlikely now. I don't think this is the end of falls (i.e. small monthly falls countering this rise).

I also have noticed a lot of banks/societies are now offering more reasonable fixed rated bonds to savers at around 4-4.25%, presumably/possibly to provide future funds to lend out as mortgages?

ad9898_3

Well this was my quote on the thread from yesterday....

Me, if it's down, if not I'll be staying in bed:D. Seriously though I said it last month after their 'swing' from +2.6% to -0.5%, that these indices are next to useless, and even if' it's down tomorrow I'll be sticking by what I said. For there to be that amount of swing they must be looking at a very small sample size. Smaller than I'd imagined.

Ironically PB has shown more drops in the last few days than I've seen for a couple of months(due to more supply/less buyers ?), the rate cuts that have now fed through have stopped the crash pretty much in it's tracks, which is what the government wanted I guess, I still feel pressure is building behind the dam though from very weak fundamentals, so I guess we will see, I will admit defeat but only if things are the same now in 18 months time.

The feeling is, they won't be. The borrowed money will have stopped and that massive bill will be starting to be paid back, a double whammy, along with commodity inflation and wage cuts (due to tax). I'm happy to sit tight for now.


Edit. Looks like my thanks will be down today, all the bears have gone into hiding.:D

wymondham

If prices are really rising then boy what a mess - conflicting info coming from all directions as some are so desperate to artifically end the housing recession... those thinking about buying please don't stampede to the estate agents, thereby making house prices rise ... if you do you'll only have yourselves to blame!

Graham_Devon

I'm seriously starting to think that's it for the crash.

Bears, including myself, seem to be hanging on to the fact that interest rates are so low etc, but I'm not sure it's going to make any difference anymore.

If unmployment can surge by the amount it is, our debt can be as bad as it is, and house prices as expensive as they are, and they can STILL rise, then maybe with all the intervention, things just won't pan out the way I foresaw them too.

I'm still not sure how it can work this way, what with the shambolic mess we are in, but just because I don't understand how it can work, it doesn't mean it isnt working.

I was calling it a spring bounce / bull trap, but I'm really not sure anymore.

Dan:_4

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I'm seriously starting to think that's it for the crash.

Bears, including myself, seem to be hanging on to the fact that interest rates are so low etc, but I'm not sure it's going to make any difference anymore.

If unmployment can surge by the amount it is, our debt can be as bad as it is, and house prices as expensive as they are, and they can STILL rise, then maybe with all the intervention, things just won't pan out the way I foresaw them too.

I'm still not sure how it can work this way, what with the shambolic mess we are in, but just because I don't understand how it can work, it doesn't mean it isnt working.

Even if the crash is over, it will go down in history worse then the 90s crash. The 1990s peak-to-trough was around 14% according to the Halifax, whereas this time it's over 20%.