Nationwide +1.3 (-6.2 YoY)

dosh

http://blogs.thisismoney.co.uk/this_is_money_blog/2009/07/why-house-prices-wont-be-making-a-miraculous-recovery.html

Edale

I don't think anyones mentioned this but I am a little sceptical about their information. Look at this link for Building Societies lending in June and you will see approvals for June total about £1.8 Billion compared with a monthly average in 2006 of over £4.4 Billion. This total includes remortgages and further advances as well. If you look at Nationwide's current range of mortgage products they are really uncompetitive and I wonder who is actually using them for a mortgage when buying a house, both Britannia and Chelsea had some cracking fixed rates in June and must have written quite a lot of business. So if I am right and they are taking a smaller market share in a smaller market, what is the sample size the Nationwide House price index is based on and how does this compare to a year ago when they were competitive?

They will be very keen to put a positive spin on any good news they can muster but is their sample big enough to give a figure we can be confident in?

Edited to add: if you look at the monthly approval data here the amounts approved since last December have been down massively, January 2009 for example was just 12% of January 2008! It does suggest to me that the data used for the last few months will have been a fraction of that in the past, this may explain the divergence of the Halifax and Nationwide indices as they will both be using smaller amounts of data.

Really2

Edale wrote: »

I don't think anyones mentioned this but I am a little sceptical about their information. Look at this link for Building Societies lending in June and you will see approvals for June total about £1.8 Billion compared with a monthly average in 2006 of over £4.4 Billion. This total includes remortgages and further advances as well. If you look at Nationwide's current range of mortgage products they are really uncompetitive and I wonder who is actually using them for a mortgage when buying a house, both Britannia and Chelsea had some cracking fixed rates in June and must have written quite a lot of business. So if I am right and they are taking a smaller market share in a smaller market, what is the sample size the Nationwide House price index is based on and how does this compare to a year ago when they were competitive?

They will be very keen to put a positive spin on any good news they can muster but is their sample big enough to give a figure we can be confident in?

Edited to add: if you look at the monthly approval data here the amounts approved since last December have been down massively, January 2009 for example was just 12% of January 2008! It does suggest to me that the data used for the last few months will have been a fraction of that in the past, this may explain the divergence of the Halifax and Nationwide indices as they will both be using smaller amounts of data.

But the reason for the rises recently as been because their are historicaly low numbers of properts available.

You are not going back to 06 levels so why are they the main stay for bears? I presume you want a new boom?

My take, houses are in short supply making people who need/ want to move pay more.
We are seeing up an down movements, this does not mean prices are rising but in reality it does look like they are beginning to stagnate.

I think it is time time for some of the bears to now evaluate if we are looking at if we are near the bottom (within 10%) and seeing the start of stagnation.
I think after 6 months of fall most of the bull's realised there was not going to be any swift turn around.
Likewise do not think we will be seeing fall larger than last year, this year, or possibly again in the popping of this bubble.

GSXRCarlos

i have to admit, i'm one of those new people with nationwide

All a trend line shows is the general upwards trend of house prices. due to our incomes and property prices, we're never going to drop to the levels of 10 or 20 years ago, at the end of the day a house is worth what someone is willing to pay for it. and the more people that get scared the sooner house prices stabilise and eventually go up.

People are now buying incase they get stung, and reports like the one that started this thread are actually compounding the problem, not helping it

poppy10_2

GSXRCarlos wrote: »

a house is worth what someone is willing to pay for it.

Not just willing, but able. I am willing to pay £2m for a McLaren F1, but I am not able do so, and no bank would ever lend me the money.

Unless banks return to the crazy lending standards of a few years ago (high multiples of income, 125% LTV mortgages, no certification or documentation required) we will not return to the crazy house prices.

Mmmm...

Edale

It seems we are seeing a market with very constrained demand caused by lack of mortgages, lack of job security and hence people able to buy, but also a market with very constrained supply, caused by many factors. At the moment the supply side seems to be winning the day and causing prices to increase. I am not sure how long this will last and mortgage rates today are somewhat higher than just 6 weeks ago, this will dampen demand. The haliwide figures in the next few months could prove interesting

Edale

GSXRCarlos wrote: »

i have to admit, i'm one of those new people with nationwide

All a trend line shows is the general upwards trend of house prices. due to our incomes and property prices, we're never going to drop to the levels of 10 or 20 years ago, at the end of the day a house is worth what someone is willing to pay for it. and the more people that get scared the sooner house prices stabilise and eventually go up.

People are now buying incase they get stung, and reports like the one that started this thread are actually compounding the problem, not helping it

Can I ask why you used the Nationwide, their rates seem so uncompetitive compared with HSBC, Britannia, Chelsea, First Direct. This is for fixed and tracker rates, you can't take out an SVR with them.

Have I missed a trick?

the_ash_and_the_oak

Dr_DiNg_DoNg wrote: »

It has amazed me how resilient the housing market is, 6% is nothing in the scheme of things, and it looks like the doomsters will miss the boat again.

pretty sure most will miss boat because they don't have enough deposit tbf

boats sailing right now not got so many people on them imo (if you believe transaction figures)

the_ash_and_the_oak

GSXRCarlos wrote: »

i have to admit, i'm one of those new people with nationwide

All a trend line shows is the general upwards trend of house prices. due to our incomes and property prices, we're never going to drop to the levels of 10 or 20 years ago, at the end of the day a house is worth what someone is willing to pay for it. and the more people that get scared the sooner house prices stabilise and eventually go up.

not really (unless you mean cash buyers)

houses are worth what a bank will lend someone not what they are prepared to pay. If im willing to pay 200 but bank will only lend me 145, its not worth 200

IveSeenTheLight

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

not really (unless you mean cash buyers)

houses are worth what a bank will lend someone not what they are prepared to pay. If im willing to pay 200 but bank will only lend me 145, its not worth 200

No that could mean that you cannot afford what it is worth.

Properties are worth what they actually sell for, an agreement between a seller and a buyer, not what some potential bidders personal finances dictate without such an agreement.