Nationwide +1.3 (-6.2 YoY)

Graham_Devon

julieq wrote: »

Ahah, thread edit.

It's a curve because it's an exponential trend. That will always be a curve unless the rate of growth is zero.

What is the point you're making or was it just a question about graphs?

Oh bloody hell. I give up.

Idiots.

Dan:_4

mewbie wrote: »

I have just spent 30 minutes typing the figuress into a spreadsheet. If I shave off the bubble of the last ten years the trend line drops significantly. I demand an immediate apology.

Lets see it then...

mewbie_2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Oh bloody hell. I give up.

Idiots.

I will never give up. I have no life outside MSE anyway, not after the car park incident. If I can rebuild my tattered reputation on here as some kind of economic Ravi Shankar then I will indeed be able to walk proudly down the street once more - subject obviously to the curfew order and restriction zone around my wife's address.

julieq

OK Graham, let's agree for the moment the graph can move up and down with growth or deflation in the market (although not by much). You have now learned it can't be a straight line and why.

So what bearing does the line moving up or down have on the argument. What point are you trying to make here?

We are simple idiots here, some of us merely female. Please elucidate.

misskool

mewbie wrote: »

I have just spent 30 minutes typing the figuress into a spreadsheet. If I shave off the bubble of the last ten years the trend line drops significantly. I demand an immediate apology.

Can you explain how that works?

Graham_Devon

julieq wrote: »

OK Graham, let's agree for the moment the graph can move up and down with growth or deflation in the market (although not by much). You have now learned it can't be a straight line and why.

So what bearing does the line moving up or down have on the argument. What point are you trying to make here?

We are simple idiots here, some of us merely female. Please elucidate.

Very simple.

This whole pathetic argument came from the very point that the trend does NOT equate to what the average price of a home should be....therefore, we have not met equalibrium with average, as the average on the trend has been pulled up.

I'm sure you will tell me I do not understand, but in terms of PRICES, the trend does NOT show the average because the trend has been pulled UP by the rises in the boom years, out of sync of what would be the average in normal times.

The only people confusing this are you and ISTL who keep telling everyone they do not understand, when you both are taking things completely out of context and slapping in your "graham wants it to go down 30%" lies to try in some sort of lame way to prove yourselves correct. You have added imaginary timeframes thst "graham said" which I never did. Imaginary percentages that graham said that I never did. To be honest, you have totally confused yourselves with hearing what you would LIKE me to say so you can do your whole "Oh, your wrong Graham" boll*cks.

I am now off to cry and have a bowl of crunchy nut cornflakes.

IveSeenTheLight

poppy10 wrote: »

I was talking in terms of prices, not timescale. I believe prices will fall 50-60% from peak, with a 15-20% fall so far we are about a third of the way through.

Oh, and seeing how you seem to like overusing winking smilies so much:
;);););););););););););););););););););)

I thought you were talking timescale hence your reply stating Sept 2012

ad9898_3

Who cares about the graph, all we know from it is that using history and the 3 times this has happened before, prices are likely to hit around 120k before all this plays out at least:D, the ledge we are now sitting on is exactly the same ledge as the 90's graph that the trend line goes through.;)

After having a better day than I thought I would today, I'm pretty chirpy now, however if unemployment was dropping, GDP rising, government and personel debt low, taxes were coming down, future IR's were coming down AND house prices were rising I'd be worried, we'd be in for some serious HPI.

But as we can see none of this is happening, Wylie Coyote has ran off the edge of the cliff smiling at the camera, he is yet to realise there is nothing supporting him except thin air, anyone know what happens next ??:D

bluey890

The predictions. I voted in hindsight.

Up more than 10% 0 0% Up between 3% and 10% Stang
1 0.75% No change (-3% to +3%) bluey890, dougk, dreamylittledream, mr.broderick
4 2.99% Down between 3% and 10% Dan:, Jinky67, LadyIndecisive, Mobeer, Sammy_Girl, StevieJ, Vincenzo, caljoemor, donkeyshorn, fiddling flower petals, gjchester, mitchaa, nollag2006, poppy10, salty seadog, wolvoman, wolvotim
18 13.43% Down between 10% and 15% 115K, Bangerchick, Bean Counter, BenL, Bone Idle, BruTamUK, Droopyk, JayScottGreenspan, JayZed, Kez100, LittleMissAspie, Lotus-eater, Really2, Rick62, ShelleyC, SingleSue, Swipe, Tony_R, Turnbull2000, !!!!!!?, botchjob, catherine66, claireabelle, drc, ginandtonic1988, iolanthe07, jim83, kennyboy66, michaels, neverdespairgirl, nick74, pioneer, stephen163, stevetodd, tradetime
35 26.12% Down between 15% and 20% BlondeHeadOn, Cannon Fodder, Davesnave, GDB2222, Generali, Harbour Lad, Heyman, King Of Fools, LydiaJ, MPD, ManAtHome, Marleyandme, Mini Bear, Morphosis, Mr Taxtastic, MrDT, Pobby, RetroBob, TDS, abaxas, ad9898, aleph_0, beecher, belsh77, carolt, davilown, donglemouse, free4440273, hoggums, incesticde, leftieM, mdb99jh, mewbie, mystic_trev, neas, obprestige, purch, robin banks, sarkin, skap7309, staffsuk, steadysaver, the worried one, themanbearpig, torontoboy45, wharty, whathavewedone, wobblegobble
48 35.82% Down between 20% and 25% Cat695, Laughing_man, MissMoneypenny, calisto, dervish, geoffky, lady_lucan, luvpump, northern_munky, turbobob, ultrapop, zcacmxi
12 8.96% Down between 25% and 30% 1echidna, Angela, Broken hearted, Hintza, Jaymz, chrisandanne, dopester, drbeat, elona, evelio, justruth, mjdh1957
12 8.96% Down between 30% and 35% Prudent, Zagu
2 1.49% Down more than 35% brit1234, overlander
2 1.49%

Is everyone standing by their predictions?

ad9898_3

bluey890 wrote: »

The predictions. I voted in hindsight.

Up more than 10% 0 0% Up between 3% and 10% Stang
1 0.75% No change (-3% to +3%) bluey890, dougk, dreamylittledream, mr.broderick
4 2.99% Down between 3% and 10% Dan:, Jinky67, LadyIndecisive, Mobeer, Sammy_Girl, StevieJ, Vincenzo, caljoemor, donkeyshorn, fiddling flower petals, gjchester, mitchaa, nollag2006, poppy10, salty seadog, wolvoman, wolvotim
18 13.43% Down between 10% and 15% 115K, Bangerchick, Bean Counter, BenL, Bone Idle, BruTamUK, Droopyk, JayScottGreenspan, JayZed, Kez100, LittleMissAspie, Lotus-eater, Really2, Rick62, ShelleyC, SingleSue, Swipe, Tony_R, Turnbull2000, !!!!!!?, botchjob, catherine66, claireabelle, drc, ginandtonic1988, iolanthe07, jim83, kennyboy66, michaels, neverdespairgirl, nick74, pioneer, stephen163, stevetodd, tradetime
35 26.12% Down between 15% and 20% BlondeHeadOn, Cannon Fodder, Davesnave, GDB2222, Generali, Harbour Lad, Heyman, King Of Fools, LydiaJ, MPD, ManAtHome, Marleyandme, Mini Bear, Morphosis, Mr Taxtastic, MrDT, Pobby, RetroBob, TDS, abaxas, ad9898, aleph_0, beecher, belsh77, carolt, davilown, donglemouse, free4440273, hoggums, incesticde, leftieM, mdb99jh, mewbie, mystic_trev, neas, obprestige, purch, robin banks, sarkin, skap7309, staffsuk, steadysaver, the worried one, themanbearpig, torontoboy45, wharty, whathavewedone, wobblegobble
48 35.82% Down between 20% and 25% Cat695, Laughing_man, MissMoneypenny, calisto, dervish, geoffky, lady_lucan, luvpump, northern_munky, turbobob, ultrapop, zcacmxi
12 8.96% Down between 25% and 30% 1echidna, Angela, Broken hearted, Hintza, Jaymz, chrisandanne, dopester, drbeat, elona, evelio, justruth, mjdh1957
12 8.96% Down between 30% and 35% Prudent, Zagu
2 1.49% Down more than 35% brit1234, overlander
2 1.49%

Is everyone standing by their predictions?

If we're talking hindsight, the question should read, 'What are your predictions if the government prints £125 billion of freshly folded and they will borrow more money than even your grandchildren will be able to pay back'

If that was the question, I'd have voted with you.;)