Nationwide +1.3 (-6.2 YoY)

Dan:_4

ad9898 wrote: »

Who cares about the graph, all we know from it is that using history and the 3 times this has happened before, prices are likely to hit around 120k before all this plays out at least:D, the ledge we are now sitting on is exactly the same ledge as the 90's graph that the trend line goes through.;)

After having a better day than I thought I would today, I'm pretty chirpy now, however if unemployment was dropping, GDP rising, government and personel debt low, taxes were coming down, future IR's were coming down AND house prices were rising I'd be worried, we'd be in for some serious HPI.

But as we can see none of this is happening, Wylie Coyote has ran off the edge of the cliff smiling at the camera, he is yet to realise there is nothing supporting him except thin air, anyone know what happens next ??:D

You are correct. All those things will prevent any future HPI. However I think it is niave to say that average prices will hit 120K as this will be around another 20% to fall - I really cant see it.

The big falls are over - There will be some more price falls towards the end of year, which will put as back to Feb 09 levels but expect some further increases to follow during summer 2010 - welcome to a period of stagnation.

ad9898_3

Dan: wrote: »

You are correct. All those things will prevent any future HPI. However I think it is niave to say that average prices will hit 120K as this will be around another 20% to fall - I really cant see it.

The big falls are over - There will be some more price falls towards the end of year, which will put as back to Feb 09 levels but expect some further increases to follow during summer 2010 - welcome to a period of stagnation.

TBH Dan, I was taking the p*ss a bit, after the last six months, I don't have a bloody clue anymore.

Dan:_4

bluey890 wrote: »

The predictions. I voted in hindsight.

Up more than 10% 0 0% Up between 3% and 10% Stang
1 0.75% No change (-3% to +3%) bluey890, dougk, dreamylittledream, mr.broderick
4 2.99% Down between 3% and 10% Dan:, Jinky67, LadyIndecisive, Mobeer, Sammy_Girl, StevieJ, Vincenzo, caljoemor, donkeyshorn, fiddling flower petals, gjchester, mitchaa, nollag2006, poppy10, salty seadog, wolvoman, wolvotim
18 13.43% Down between 10% and 15% 115K, Bangerchick, Bean Counter, BenL, Bone Idle, BruTamUK, Droopyk, JayScottGreenspan, JayZed, Kez100, LittleMissAspie, Lotus-eater, Really2, Rick62, ShelleyC, SingleSue, Swipe, Tony_R, Turnbull2000, !!!!!!?, botchjob, catherine66, claireabelle, drc, ginandtonic1988, iolanthe07, jim83, kennyboy66, michaels, neverdespairgirl, nick74, pioneer, stephen163, stevetodd, tradetime
35 26.12% Down between 15% and 20% BlondeHeadOn, Cannon Fodder, Davesnave, GDB2222, Generali, Harbour Lad, Heyman, King Of Fools, LydiaJ, MPD, ManAtHome, Marleyandme, Mini Bear, Morphosis, Mr Taxtastic, MrDT, Pobby, RetroBob, TDS, abaxas, ad9898, aleph_0, beecher, belsh77, carolt, davilown, donglemouse, free4440273, hoggums, incesticde, leftieM, mdb99jh, mewbie, mystic_trev, neas, obprestige, purch, robin banks, sarkin, skap7309, staffsuk, steadysaver, the worried one, themanbearpig, torontoboy45, wharty, whathavewedone, wobblegobble
48 35.82% Down between 20% and 25% Cat695, Laughing_man, MissMoneypenny, calisto, dervish, geoffky, lady_lucan, luvpump, northern_munky, turbobob, ultrapop, zcacmxi
12 8.96% Down between 25% and 30% 1echidna, Angela, Broken hearted, Hintza, Jaymz, chrisandanne, dopester, drbeat, elona, evelio, justruth, mjdh1957
12 8.96% Down between 30% and 35% Prudent, Zagu
2 1.49% Down more than 35% brit1234, overlander
2 1.49%

Is everyone standing by their predictions?

-3% and -10%

It seems I was slighltly pessimistic - must have been the bears yelling at me back then.

ad9898_3

ad9898 wrote: »

TBH Dan, I was taking the p*ss a bit, after the last six months, I don't have a bloody clue anymore.

Just add to this, it goes to show just how reliant we are on the housing pyramid scheme for our economy, absolutely everything has been thrown at it to stop prices falling too much. Japan and the U.S are still the top economies in the world, yet if their house price crash had happened here, we would be down with likes of Chad, Sudan and Zimbabwe.

We are a sad and sorry nation that it has come to this.

Lotus-eater

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Oh bloody hell. I give up.

Idiots.

I have to be honest, I got what Graham was talking about straight away and he was spot on, we then have 10 pages of useless waffle

I know he's right because it's simple and we discussed and worked this out a couple of years ago on here. The fact that it may only move a little, is a moot point.

This has been a complete load of boll*cks with, from what I can see, a load of people arguing with GD for the sake of it.

TBH, I don't know why I come here anymore ........and a load of other !!!! that I actually mean, but I still read the board anyway :rolleyes: beats me.

bluey890

ad9898 wrote: »

If we're talking hindsight, the question should read, 'What are your predictions if the government prints £125 billion of freshly folded and they will borrow more money than even your grandchildren will be able to pay back'

If that was the question, I'd have voted with you.;)

People being ejected from homes is a political no no.
You should have factored this in.

ad9898_3

bluey890 wrote: »

People being ejected from homes is a political no no.
You should have factored this in.

The money doesn't exist, so people will still be evicted from their homes, just over a longer period of time and not under a Labour government.

bluey890

ad9898 wrote: »

The money doesn't exist yet.

I have corrected your post. No need to thank me.

ad9898_3

bluey890 wrote: »

I have corrected your post. No need to thank me.

No worries, you are right of course......... 'yet' = 2017 though.:D

mewbie_2

misskool wrote: »

Can you explain how that works?

One more time for you Misskool.

Put some figures into a spreadsheet. Make a chart. Add a trendline. And some more figures - the trendline moves.

Having discovered that the trendline isn't magically nailed on the next step is....

Walk away from MSE. Clear your mind of thoughts. Consider the biggest bubble in house price history. Float upwards with the magical trendline of ever rising house prices. Then consider what happens after all and every bubble ever in the whole history of all mankind ever in the world ever.

And relax.