Nationwide +1.3 (-6.2 YoY)

julieq

It's a rolling 30 year window, it doesn't start from the same year.

tomstickland

The long term trend has no ability to predict the future.

Graham_Devon

And I suppose 2.7 to 2.9 is insignificant too Julie? Consdiering your ignoring everything put to you now I thought I'd throw that one in

My guess is that its pretty significant for something that stays static?

julieq

mewbie wrote: »

indeed!! That's why the biggest bubble in house price history may have affected the figures!!!!!


aggressive!! Me!!! Why should i be aggressive? Some mse twit is telling me i can't work a spreadsheet!!! After the day i've had - what with the bloody nationwide crap.


you do not know how it works. You're a girl.

That's exactly what I'm telling you Mewbie. The compounded annual rate of house price inflation over 30 years was not significantly affected by the last bubble (it's running steady somewhere around 3%). Hence the exponential trend is a reasonable baseline (which is why even the HPC graph uses the same basis for its historical mean).

Which I think Graham was trying to argue against, wanting to shift the line down about 30% so it matched better and turned today into the "bull trap". Otherwise I'm not entirely sure why he mentioned it.

Fact is it really doesn't move. You can take the last 30 years annual figures and change the last few around by quite large margins and it'll stay irritatingly exactly where it is. As I assume you're finding out from your spreadsheet.

Graham_Devon

julieq wrote: »

Which I think Graham was trying to argue against, wanting to shift the line down about 30% so it matched better and turned today into the "bull trap". Otherwise I'm not entirely sure why he mentioned it.

You think wrong....again.

Tip: Read what I say. Don't just make up your own versions.

Again, for reference I said and asked:

Graham_Devon wrote: »

If prices fell to £100,000 for example, would the trend line still be at £160,000, or would it be lower?

Graham_Devon wrote: »

So if prices over the next 10 year rose 500%, the trend line would not curve upwards?

What I'm getting at basically is I'm wondering whether the trend line will be pulled up or down by prices.

I think it does, but I'm not too sure. Hence why the trend line on that graph is actually a curve, not a line. If it was a line, it would end up around 120k, not curving up to 160k as it does.

Where does that imply anything about 30%, or "significant moves" or anything else you have accused me of saying so far?

julieq

Graham_Devon wrote: »

And I suppose 2.7 to 2.9 is insignificant too Julie? Consdiering your ignoring everything put to you now I thought I'd throw that one in

My guess is that its pretty significant for something that stays static?

I wasn't ignoring anything, I was eating dinner.

Oddly enough Graham, you'll find the line stays in the same place almost exactly starting 3 years earlier with a different growth rate. Because it also starts from a different place. That's the joy of averages.

Tell me though, how much do you need the line to shift to prove whatever point it was you were trying to make?

julieq

Graham_Devon wrote: »

You think wrong....again.

Tip: Read what I say. Don't just make up your own versions.

Good chance to recap your argument then Graham?

Probably we'll see that sometime after Mewbie posts his spreadsheet

Graham_Devon

julieq wrote: »

Tell me though, how much do you need the line to shift to prove whatever point it was you were trying to make?

It wouldn't need to shift by any amount. It would just need to shift.

If you don't understand the point I'm making, how can you say I do not understand and I am wrong??

Also, how can you say right above this post "graham wants 30%" and then say "what would you need to prove whatever point".

The conclusion to all of this is you are talking bullshyte.

Your apology for all the accusations is accepted.

julieq

Ahah, thread edit.

It's a curve because it's an exponential trend. That will always be a curve unless the rate of growth is zero.

What is the point you're making or was it just a question about graphs?

mewbie_2

I have just spent 30 minutes typing the figuress into a spreadsheet. If I shave off the bubble of the last ten years the trend line drops significantly. I demand an immediate apology.