Nationwide +1.3 (-6.2 YoY)

shakerbaby

Dan: wrote: »

Im suprised it took 6 pages for someone to post the HPC graph.

Care to comment on it then or just stick your head in the sand? :rotfl:

IveSeenTheLight

Really2 wrote: »

Check out the mean line.:)

That is the trend line (real house price) on the nationwide graph

As we are at the long term trend line, would people accept if there was stabalisation following that trend going forward?

Dan:_4

shakerbaby wrote: »

Care to comment on it then or just stick your head in the sand? :rotfl:

I comment on it every month, it's getting boring now.

I think you will find that it is many others, that are waiting for another 20% drop that have their heads in the sand.

The market has bottomed - get used to it.

Graham_Devon

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

As we are at the long term trend line, would people accept if there was stabalisation following that trend going forward?

If prices fell to £100,000 for example, would the trend line still be at £160,000, or would it be lower?

julieq

Graham_Devon wrote: »

If prices fell to £100,000 for example, would the trend line still be at £160,000, or would it be lower?

It would stay where it is. That's the whole point of the line, it's showing the long term trend. Otherwise when the price rose to £200K you would raise the line (etc) in which case it would be the actual prices.

Graham_Devon

julieq wrote: »

It would stay where it is. That's the whole point of the line, it's showing the long term trend. Otherwise when the price rose to £200K you would raise the line (etc) in which case it would be the actual prices.

So if prices over the next 10 year rose 500%, the trend line would not curve upwards?

What I'm getting at basically is I'm wondering whether the trend line will be pulled up or down by prices.

I think it does, but I'm not too sure. Hence why the trend line on that graph is actually a curve, not a line. If it was a line, it would end up around 120k, not curving up to 160k as it does.

IveSeenTheLight

Graham_Devon wrote: »

If prices fell to £100,000 for example, would the trend line still be at £160,000, or would it be lower?

It would be roughly the same.
It's a long term trend with over 20 years of data. (Includes 2 previous crashes)

See here for 2007, the trend line didn't go up did it?
http://nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/jul_2007.pdf

Graham_Devon

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

It would be roughly the same.
It's a long term trend with over 20 years of data. (Includes 2 previous crashes)

See here for 2007, the trend line didn't go up did it?
http://nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/jul_2007.pdf

Yes, so that does answer my question. The trend line is pulled up alongside prices. In 2 years, the trend has moved from 140k to 160k. (well around 155k).

I'm not really sure what I am trying to prove here, but I think I'm correct in saying that the trend line is just following the average of the ups and downs, therefore does not really give an indication that currently 160k is the level we should be at today.

If it fell to 100k over the next 5 years, the trend line would not sit at 160k or keep rising, it would fall, not slope downwards, but the whole line would be pulled down to a lower figure.

shakerbaby

Graham_Devon wrote: »

So if prices over the next 10 year rose 500%, the trend line would not curve upwards?

What I'm getting at basically is I'm wondering whether the trend line will be pulled up or down by prices.

I think it does, but I'm not too sure. Hence why the trend line on that graph is actually a curve, not a line. If it was a line, it would end up around 120k, not curving up to 160k as it does.

In bull world it stays the same if prices drop but curves up if prices rise.

I hope I have clarrified it for you. :beer:

Really2

I saw an interesting graph the other day that had HPI ploted month on month (could have been quarter on quarter)

That made 2006-2007 look like the bull trap.
That would certainly fit the graph HPC users love using more than saying the current pike is a bull trap.

i think it was on a link chucky posted but I cant find it.