Nationwide +1.3 (-6.2 YoY)

chucky

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Sorry

In any case, mortgage rates which are the rates people will be paying, are not historically low, base rates are. I was paying less than a FTB will be today on a fix in 2006!

what would give you a better picture is to compare was the the cost of buying a house (including rates at that times) to the one-dimensional average house price.

Graham_Devon

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Graham, ITS A LONG TERM TREND

As you can see from the NW graph or the Lloyds one you posted, actual prices will go above and below the long term trend.

If you want stability, the rather than over and undershooting this trend, you really need actual prices to follow the trend as close as possible.

This is what historically over the long term average, what house prices have averaged out increased by each year.

If your calling for an undershoot of the trend (which is quite probable going by historical evidence) then prepare for rampant HPI again as it re-corrects to the long term trend and (again by historical evidence) overshoots.

I gaurantee it will not go down to £100k and then start from a new yearly inflation adjusted trend line.

And I never said anything like you are now suggesting.

I just wanted to answer your question of whether I woukld accept when they hit trend they could stagnate.

I answered no after clarifying something. I really don't want arguments today, which is why I set out to clarify before answering. And why I'm clarifying why I was clarifying

There was no mallice, or intent anywhere. I didnt say anything like you are saying above. I was just asking a humble question. I wasn't calling, suggesting, or implying anything you are saying.

I really would like to be able to get passed this "are you suggesting stuff" if it's possible, hence why I have been discussing with you today and taking on your points, and hopefully, can continue to do so. If I say something thats stupid, fair enough, but I don't believe I have suggested anything you are saying above, I believe I just wanted to answer your question.

Hope you take this post as intended

Really2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

And I never said anything like you are now suggesting.

I just wanted to answer your question of whether I woukld accept when they hit trend they could stagnate.

I answered no after clarifying something. I really don't want arguments today, which is why I set out to clarify before answering. And why I'm clarifying why I was clarifying

There was no mallice, or intent anywhere. I didnt say anything like you are saying above. I was just asking a humble question. I wasn't calling, suggesting, or implying anything you are saying.

I really would like to be able to get passed this "are you suggesting stuff" if it's possible, hence why I have been discussing with you today, and hopefully, can continue to do so. If I say something thats stupid, fair enough, but I don't believe I have suggested anything you are saying above, I believe I just wanted to answer your question.

Hope you take this post as intended

Indeed, but at least some time soon be a bit more gracious when people explain things to you. (when we take time out to do so we are not trying to pull the wool over your eyes and converting you to the dark side)

Belive it or not no matter bear or bull some of us actually like to be factual.
That is why we take out time to explain things and do actually data as data.

Not try to use a drawn graph as hypothesis of truth:)

julieq

I have a feeling the trend hasn't quite been understood, so apologies for repeating myself here.

The point of this line is to provide a consistent baseline based on historical average increases compounding onto the historical base point, otherwise the true average price data would have no reference point. You can't shift the long term average much via short term changes unless they are very dramatic indeed. The line won't ever dip, it must be the same shape always by definition, but the far end point can change marginally depending on the growth rate assumed.

Having this line (which is the same one as on the HPC graph) gives a view of where the average is according to reasonable expectations of where it might be on the long term trend.

chucky

chucky wrote: »

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/46130000/gif/_46130953_house_prices_30_jul09.gif

today has made me chuckle at some of the stuff that the really bearish posters have been saying.
they've actually been panicking a little - from reading HPC.co.uk some of those are in a right little state. don't forget...

it's only one months data!!!
it's only a national average of less than 10% of UK mortgage market!!
it's only mortgage approvals too!!

don't forget that the fundamentals don't change with a month on month rise or even a few months rise.

it's not over until it get's to about November - if YOY is still positve then it will be be GAME OVER though!!

on the other hand looking at that graph it looks like a jet taking off!!!

DYOR!!!

nearlynew

We will not know if this was or wasn't a "bull trap" until early next year.

Bull traps, by definition, mean prices rise following a perceived bottom. Then, after a while the trend continues downwards.

The clue is in the word trap. And it appears to have succeeded in snaring the bulls into thinking we are "back to normal"

Hold your nerve bears. This time next year, average prices will be lower.

Don't believe the hype.

Graham_Devon

chucky wrote: »

today has made me chuckle at some of the stuff that the really bearish posters have been saying.
they've actually been panicking a little - from reading HPC.co.uk some of those are in a right little state. don't forget...

it's only one months data!!!
it's a national average of less than 10% of UK mortgage market!!
it's only mortgage approvals too!!

don't forget that the fundamentals don't change with a month on month rise or even a few months rise.

it's not over until it get's to about November - if YOY is still positve then it will be be GAME OVER though!!

on the other hand looking at that graph it looks like a jet taking off!!!

DYOR!!!

Was it only 2 days ago you yourself was stating you take no notice of the Halifax or Nationwide graphs?

But now?

System

Unless there are some bulls that have dashed off and bought properties then they weren't trapped at all really were they. It'll be a trap that didn't catch anything.

chucky

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Was it only 2 days ago you yourself was stating you take no notice of the Halifax or Nationwide graphs?

But now?

if you read my post as it was intended - that's near enough what i said when i say that...

• it's only one months data!!!
• it's only a national average of less than 10% of UK mortgage market!!
• it's only mortgage approvals too!!

chucky

nearlynew wrote: »

We will not know if this was or wasn't a "bull trap" until early next year.

Bull traps, by definition, mean prices rise following a perceived bottom. Then, after a while the trend continues downwards.

The clue is in the word trap. And it appears to have succeeded in snaring the bulls into thinking we are "back to normal"

Hold your nerve bears. This time next year, average prices will be lower.

Don't believe the hype.

on the other hand many would be happy if they had bought since February or later and have insulated themsleves with 7.5% HPI to protect themselves from potential future falls...

it all depends on the buying price of course...