Nationwide +1.3 (-6.2 YoY)

michaels

I hope the one person who looks like they may have called it correctly is sunning themselves on their own Caribbean beach right now...

poppy10 wrote: »

Oops:

Lotus-eater

michaels wrote: »

I hope the one person who looks like they may have called it correctly is sunning themselves on their own Caribbean beach right now...

Lets wait till the end of the year shall we
Maybe the 0 got it right

IveSeenTheLight

poppy10 wrote: »

September 2012

Ok, so there will be growth just as the clocks change and we get into the winter nights 3 years from now I take it there will be no spring bounce in 2012

P.S. Since it was percieved the peak was Sept 07, were almost two years and from your prediction with three to go.

That's roughly 40% of the way through the crash by your prediction and more than the "not even 1/3" of the way through it

Cannon_Fodder

I'm confused.

Dan: wrote: »

Nationwide index has been discredited on here since around April time.

Thought even Bulls agreed this was the weak index. Why is it being clung to as some divine revelation?

Even if we don't go over that again, as Nationwide say themselves;

"In the specific case of the housing market, the very sharp decline in transactions over the course of 2008 produced a fairly large pool of prospective purchasers who were ready and able to buy in principle, but did not want to do so in the very uncertain conditions prevailing when the banking crisis was at its peak last autumn. When it became clear that government interventions around the globe had stabilised the banking system and prevented a worst-case
economic outcome, some of this pent-up demand re-entered the market..."

So the usual spring bounce is longer-lasting this year, because 12-18 months worth of pent-up buyers are making the process elongated, after previously waiting for the crash to evolve. Fine.

Once those with cash, decent LTVs, decent credit histories, etc are out of the equation, that leaves what exactly to prop up prices?

Not much, imo.

Hopefully today's news will encourage cautious sellers onto the market, thinking everything is rosy, so I can have a better choice/quality/location of property to buy, as 90% of the current stock is around a year old, looking very stale and not to my liking.

Really2

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

Once those with cash, decent LTVs, decent credit histories, etc are out of the equation, that leaves what exactly to prop up prices?

Not much, imo.

Hopefully today's news will encourage cautious sellers onto the market, thinking everything is rosy, so I can have a better choice/quality/location of property to buy, as 90% of the current stock is around a year old, looking very stale and not to my liking.

You are one of those people

I don't think any one can call it, if supply does not increase (housing stock) it is hard to know where things will go.

shakerbaby

Graham_Devon

Actually good point on the graph / chart / doodle.

It does recover by about 40% of the crash before falling again.

And it has recovered so far about that amount!

Dan:_4

Im suprised it took 6 pages for someone to post the HPC graph.

Really2

shakerbaby wrote: »

Check out the mean line.:)

That is the trend line (real house price) on the nationwide graph

Conrad

shakerbaby wrote: »

Property is seen by many as an investment, but primarily as shelter, so dotcom stock muppet graphs by out of touch academics count for zilch here.