Could we "officialy" come out of recession tomorrow.

Really2

mbga9pgf wrote: »

Told you so.

Who is wrong now?

I think it was bigger than most expected even your forecast look bullish compared to preliminary forecast.

mbga9pgf

OK, how about this one?

Nope, not at all. If its positive, its positive. Thats all there is to it. Makes very little difference tbh. Not going to stop over 1 million losing their jobs, or a 6% Contraction in GDP over the next few years.

Its very funny that indicies that measure sentiment seem to get shot down time and time again by the reality of real world figures time and time again. At a time massive stimulus has supposed to have recovered us from a deflationary spiral.

6% is looking pretty realistic now thanks very much. Simple calc of how much money pulled out of the economy as a result of no more mortgage equity withdrawl...

This doesnt account for secondary effects so I expect the figure to be much worse than this in a years time. The government are practically adding another 5-10% to GDP due to their additional spending, wonderful hey?

Going to be carnage for GDP as soon as that stimulus spending ceases.

Graham_Devon

Lets face it, no one predicted these falls as far as I'm aware, so were all wrong.

Being "less wrong" aint a cause for celebration

inspector_monkfish

Really2 wrote: »

Never stopped you today though did it.:D

I would have given you some credit today if you had:T,
I would have thought you had over egged it yesterday but at least it would have given you credence today rather than saying "I thought that":)

I am sure Nostradamus could of been a bit more open with his predictions if he reported on them after they happened:)
You should work for forex:)

you're slightly twisting things here cheeky!!

i never said, "i told you it was going to be -0.8"

all i said was, i'm not majorly surprised its come out worse than expectations

thats all

Thrugelmir

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

I believe the elements that make up GDP can be slow to react, i.e. re-tooling, taking factories out of mothballs, etc, so as some signs, i.e. Retail figures (although that might only be summer bounce), start to encourage Co's to re-enter/upscale in their markets, it will take them some time to get the conveyor belts spinning up, and may depend upon the availability of funds from banks for backing...which could act as a brake on otherwise "normal" recession recovery.

The majority of product sold in our retail shops is imported. So has little impact on whether our factories will speed up their conveyors. Retail is dependent on those who have stable jobs and incomes to continue spending. We don't know the extent of tax rises yet. Maybe VAT up to 20%. This will impact greatly on peoples disposable income. If retail sales don't hold up what then?

Like property investors. Companies also have to learn to operate within their cashflows. Not rely on the bank to bail them out. Profitable companies generate cash. A reasonable percentage of this cash needs to be reinvested. Rather than being drawn out in excessive directors pay. Growing slowly organically rather than being leveraged to the hilt.

Really2

inspector_monkfish wrote: »

you're slightly twisting things here cheeky!!

i never said, "i told you it was going to be -0.8"

all i said was, i'm not majorly surprised its come out worse than expectations

thats all

I am just having a jab

Graham_Devon

Really2 wrote: »

I am just having a jab

Well stop it, you were whinging about people doing that yesterday

inspector_monkfish

well, quit your jibber-jabbing

roseland69

I'm waiting for the usual suspects to try and spin this as "good news".

Really2

mbga9pgf wrote: »

OK, how about this one?

6% is looking pretty realistic now thanks very much. .

Saying 6% over the next few years is possible, but it is also possible it could be 0%

In reality if you had said by the end of this year you might of got a gold star, but the few years as made it a bit "all basses covered".

You used a blanket to cover spider, in that case a glass would have been sufficient:)