Could we "officialy" come out of recession tomorrow.

mbga9pgf

treliac wrote: »

I doubt people's memories are that long.

Oh, their memoiries wont have to be. 2 Generations will be how long it will take to get GDP below 40%.

And as what the next lot will do, it will generally include slashing budgets and making a lot of civil servants very unhappy. As well as cutting benefits.

Dan:_4

mbga9pgf wrote: »

Oh, their memoiries wont have to be. 2 Generations will be how long it will take to get GDP below 40%.

And as what the next lot will do, it will generally include slashing budgets and making a lot of civil servants very unhappy. As well as cutting benefits.

So nothing new then.

tomterm8

StevieJ wrote: »

Why do you say this was unexpected This was totally expected to the degree that some were forcasting a positive Q2 GDP figure only a month ago.

I mean, unexpected in terms of the assumptions & models they are using to produce the preliminary GDP figure. These assumptions are generally based on trend data that becomes less accurate, or even inaccurate as the trend changes.

An example of how this could work is in the american job figures in Q2 2008, when the credit bubble had just burst, and yet the job creation figures assumed around 125,000 new jobs in banking per quarter. The data was revised downwards subsequently.


( Am I making sence? I am rather groggy today, it must be swine flu caused by the good weather )

davilown

I love that chart - fantastic but the SD would not be fun to work out - algebra was easy but I hate stats!:rolleyes:


Too add my two pennies worth I do not believe the recession is nearly over - possibly the fourth quarter of 2010 will show the first of two sucessive positive growths. I have to say I was quite surprised that this quarter was so low, was expecting -0.3 to -0.4%.

The next two quarter will be the most interesting so far as I think, as others, that we will see the end of cash injections and QE.

The biggest losers may be the consumable market - high end electronics and cars. I feel that everyday people are now realising that there is going to be a hard time ahead. The financial institutes have had a hard time for the last few years, and this has really only had a limited effect on the general public so far.

What's next?
*I think more job losses (3.2m by Mar 10),
*interest rates upto 4% by the end of next year (no evidence for this, just what I BELIEVE before anyone jumps on their high horse).
*House prices - possibly the hardest call - down anything up to another 20%
*FTSE - 5300 by Dec 2010
*Mortgages - min 15% dep nor more than 4x salary, and at a min 2.5% above base rate for all but those with a 50%+ deposit
*Basic tax rate up one pence by Dec 10, Higher tax rate up two pence by Dec 10.

Anyway there are my predictions, bearish maybe, realistic possibly but just my feelings.

mbga9pgf wrote: »

How many standard deviations away in sentiment is THAT?

Rochdale_Pioneers

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Rochdale, whats the party line on this?

Have you got it yet?

Been on holiday mate.

Dunno what the party line is, but obviously it wasn't good news. Still, it IS recovering vs Q1!