Could we "officialy" come out of recession tomorrow.

julieq

neas wrote: »

if you play roulette and you call 0.... play enough times and eventually you will win.

[\QUOTE]

actually you won't, it doesn't matter what you do with roulette, you always lose.

nearlynew

julieq wrote: »

neas wrote: »

if you play roulette and you call 0.... play enough times and eventually you will win.

[\QUOTE]

actually you won't, it doesn't matter what you do with roulette, you always lose.

That's not actually correct, is it?

treliac

tomterm8 wrote: »

I don't trust the initial announcements, because the last two quarters GDP has been quite significantly revised down. I wouldn't be too surprised if GDP was revised by as much as 0.5% up or down, because that is what's been happening recently.

Erm, my personal hunch is that we've had quite a significant inventory boost in Q2, which was unexpected. My guess is that Q2 GDP will be revised to -0.3% in the next six months. I don't think that boost can continue forever, and will slow this quarter, suggesting that the recession is nowhere near over.

All in all, I find my personal analysis quite depressing, and I hope I'm wrong.

Depressing maybe, but balanced (as ever ), likely to be more realistic and probably correct.

Thrugelmir

treliac wrote: »

Depressing maybe, but balanced (as ever ), likely to be more realistic and probably correct.

The most depressing fact. Is that if this quarter doesn't significantly improve. Mr Darlings April forecasts will be too optimistic. The Government will have to borrow even more money than forecast.

JP45

Thrugelmir wrote: »

The most depressing fact. Is that if this quarter doesn't significantly improve. Mr Darlings April forecasts will be too optimistic. The Government will have to borrow even more money than forecast.

True, although it appears Mr Darling and the Treasury would have opted for a more pessimistic forecast but were overruled by Gordon 'an end to spin' Brown, as revealed in the following extract from Stephanie Flanders' blog:

The forecasts for the public finances are pegged to a slightly more conservative forecast of a decline on 3.75%. But I'm reliably informed that in preparing the Budget in April, the Treasury civil servants wanted a gloomier forecast, to allow for the possibility of a 2% decline in GDP in the first quarter (they got that initial first quarter estimate, hours after the chancellor sat down).

No 10 had a different view, and in the end, the forecast was for a decline of 3.25-3.75% this year. For a while it looked as though the data were moving the prime minister's way. Not any more.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/stephanieflanders/2009/07/the_shrinking_economy.html

Graham_Devon

Rochdale, whats the party line on this?

Have you got it yet?

mbga9pgf

Too busy mourning after the Norfolk Vote.

RIP Labour. 1920-2009. Dead to the electorate for at least 2 generations.

michaels

My guess is at some point there will be another party conference type speech - "I take responsibility, I made mistakes and I haven't communicated my 'passion for fairness' to the electorate - in these unprecedented global recession times" along with a major further lurch to the left to keep enough of the party on board to keep him in No 10 - not sure when that point will be - I suspect closer to the election unless any leadership challenge gains some traction.

I seriously don't know now whether Brown is still 'in control and spinning' or whether he has retreated in to his own mind having seen his 10 year ambition turn to dust - no doubt we won't find out till trusted lieutenants publish their memoirs in a few years but something about him suggests that it is the latter?

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Rochdale, what's the party line on this?

Have you got it yet?

treliac

mbga9pgf wrote: »

Dead to the electorate for at least 2 generations.

I doubt people's memories are that long.

They've been in power too long though. It's catch 22, too long in power and corruption takes hold. They forget who they're there for. Too short a time and it's not long enough to implement policy changes.

We'll soon have a chance to see what the other side will do. But are we really holding our collective breath?

StevieJ

tomterm8 wrote: »

Erm, my personal hunch is that we've had quite a significant inventory boost in Q2, which was unexpected.

Why do you say this was unexpected This was totally expected to the degree that some were forcasting a positive Q2 GDP figure only a month ago.