Could we "officialy" come out of recession tomorrow.

Crash_Over

OK - 0.8% was a little disappointing and maybe those of us of a bullish persuasion were being a tad optimistic, but I don't believe many were actually forecasting a + figure.

Recoveries never run in straight lines and there will always be conflicting economic data. But broadly we all know the recession will be over in the not too distant future.

It's just a matter of which quarter will have the honour of confirming the fact.

Graham_Devon

Crash_Over wrote: »

OK - 0.8% was a little disappointing and maybe those of us of a bullish persuasion were being a tad optimistic, but I don't believe many were actually forecasting a + figure.

Recoveries never run in straight lines and there will always be conflicting economic data. But broadly we all know the recession will be over in the not too distant future.

It's just a matter of which quarter will have the honour of confirming the fact.

Your username for your new ego was a little premature though.

Get back to using Hamish.

Crash_Over

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Your username for your new ego was a little premature though.

Get back to using Hamish.

I remember Hamish from HPC. He writes far more eloquently that I.:(

I know he was on here up until recently. Has he been banned from here too?

BTW, my username refers only to the house price crash ~ which appears to have developed an immunity from this recession.:rolleyes:

mbga9pgf

3) I was predicting a 'W' with a slight upturn resulting from the huge fiscal stimulus and QE and then further retrenchment as bond market conditions prevent further govt borrowing - will we actually get the positive leg still?

Have you ever considered we are experiencing the Upspike of the W at the moment?

6) Actual increases will not be linear - tax competition mean increases in corporation tax and top rate taxes are unlikely to be revenue positive so it is basic rate and those just in to higher rate who will be hit hardest - 'fairness' and 'efficiency' will suggest those best to hit are those who are currently able to save - those already living on 100%+ of income for essentials will just be a drain on the exchequer if their incomes are reduced and any reduction in their consumption will just push the economy further down so if you earn more than enough to live on but not enough to live abroard expect to see a 10-15% reduction in your take home pay.

This will do wonders for middle britain house prices. Remember, they cant tax savers directly; a rise in income tax will hit all disposable income, be that money to spend on sisposable stuff as well as the cash to service a mortgage. Thats exactly why I am saving like a b*gger and dont trust a word the government say; the tough bit is still yet to come, the bit where we get to pay for the excesses of the past 10 years. We havent even started paying back yet.

1) Quote on BBC that we now need +1.5% in the next 2 Qs to meet the govt forecast of -3.25 to -3.75 annual. How does this work, so far this calendar year we are down 3.2% (2.4+0.8) so surely we could fall a total of .55 in the last 2 Qs and be -3.75 for the year?

we are 5.7% down year on year Iam afraid.


Nice updated chart from HPC, comparing predicted GDP to actual. Its amazing how the experts dont have a clue from year to year. (prediction from Q4 07)

How many standard deviations away in sentiment is THAT?

tomterm8

I don't trust the initial announcements, because the last two quarters GDP has been quite significantly revised down. I wouldn't be too surprised if GDP was revised by as much as 0.5% up or down, because that is what's been happening recently.

Erm, my personal hunch is that we've had quite a significant inventory boost in Q2, which was unexpected. My guess is that Q2 GDP will be revised to -0.3% in the next six months. I don't think that boost can continue forever, and will slow this quarter, suggesting that the recession is nowhere near over.

All in all, I find my personal analysis quite depressing, and I hope I'm wrong.

Really2

mbga9pgf wrote: »

Nice updated chart from HPC, comparing predicted GDP to actual. Its amazing how the experts dont have a clue from year to year. (prediction from Q4 07)

Why is the nationwide one on HPC stuck at January (Sorry I am a bad boy:))

Thrugelmir

tomterm8 wrote: »

I don't trust the initial announcements, because the last two quarters GDP has been quite significantly revised down. I wouldn't be too surprised if GDP was revised by as much as 0.5% up or down, because that is what's been happening recently.

Erm, my personal hunch is that we've had quite a significant inventory boost in Q2, which was unexpected. My guess is that Q2 GDP will be revised to -0.3% in the next six months. I don't think that boost can continue forever, and will slow this quarter, suggesting that the recession is nowhere near over.

All in all, I find my personal analysis quite depressing, and I hope I'm wrong.

Until the ONS ( Office National Statistics) gets all the returns from Companies etc its only ever a guide. I've completed pages and pages of these forms. Often a complete pain as you don't keep the information in the detail that's required. So often asked for extra time past the deadline to file a return. If it was financial year end some returns went in 6 weeks late.

michaels

mbga9pgf wrote: »

we are 5.7% down year on year I am afraid.

Agreed but so far in 2009 calendar year we are down 3.2%
If growth is flat for the rest of the year by the end of the year, year on year we would be down by...3.2% - no? (Yes we would still be down 5.7% from peak)

neas

if you play roulette and you call 0.... play enough times and eventually you will win.

Write that down...

This thread is boringly just like that... are we gonna see it every month until it comes true?

Can somone start a thread and be almost right with their predictions for once? Guess its why none of us are bankers/experts (hopefully anyways)

Thrugelmir

neas wrote: »

if you play roulette and you call 0.... play enough times and eventually you will win.

Black or red is more apt in this case.

Waiting for 0 could be years away.