Could we "officialy" come out of recession tomorrow.

mbga9pgf

Nope. Fact is, my predictions have been a damn sight more accurate than the chancellors. Which, bearing in mind it took 5 minutes on the back of a fag packet to come up with a 6% initial figure, is a pretty damning indictment as to the complete incompetence of our elected government.

The budget is in tatters.

Edit:

My concern is this. All the spending that the government have done has merely slowed down the rate of falls temporarily. It hasnt reversed or even levelled it. Once that spending drops out, post-next election, it is going to be a complete shocker. We all know how much they are borrowing. Its obscene. What is more obscene in my mind is the fact the Labour government are prostituting our childrens future by wanton reckless spending when instead they need to get this over and done with as quickly as possible. Once we hit a bottom, we can rebuild. We cant do that whilst central government is Pi$$ing around with the figures and dragging this out, as they are, for political reasons. They coundnt even do it properly. These figures are much, much worse than predicted, completely destroy any economic credibility that Labour have and I have serious concerns about what the Conservative government will have to do to put this right.

Really2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Well stop it, you were whinging about people doing that yesterday

Well I don't think i have called IM a moron,fool or any other names. or that he lives in a caravan.

I was just having a joke, I think it is fairly obviously jokey I would not be:beer::j:p;):rolleyes::D:rotfl: tastic otherwise

Really2

inspector_monkfish wrote: »

well, quit your jibber-jabbing

I knew you where going to do that.:D

inspector_monkfish

Really2 wrote: »

I knew you where going to do that.:D

so did i

chucky

mbga9pgf wrote: »

OK, how about this one?

6% is looking pretty realistic now thanks very much. Simple calc of how much money pulled out of the economy as a result of no more mortgage equity withdrawl...

This doesnt account for secondary effects so I expect the figure to be much worse than this in a years time. The government are practically adding another 5-10% to GDP due to their additional spending, wonderful hey?

Going to be carnage for GDP as soon as that stimulus spending ceases.

it depends on the scale of how you perceive bad news. if your overly stressing about a -0.8% drop you must have been having a nervous breakdown when it was -4.6% last quarter.

it's worse than predicted but it's not "carnage", "falling off a cliff" or the end of the world as some people seem to enjoy portraying it as...

have a look at what it actually means and what the GDP is made up

Manufacturing fell by just 0.3% compared to 5.2% in the previous quarter, while construction recovered from a 6.9% fall to register a 2.2% slide.

A 0.7% decline in output from business services and finance was the biggest driver behind the 0.8% fall in output in the second quarter of the year, the statistics showed.

The services industry - accounting for almost three-quarters of overall economic output - showed a 0.6% decline.

call it spin or call it what you like -0.8% isn't good but it isn't the worst case.

mbga9pgf

But, it accounts for government stimulus, which as I have said previously, cannot last forever (a cynic would say past next years election).

The economy is being falsely propped up with government spending! The figure might as well have been -5.8% with the amount they are borrowing! Borrowing which is going to have a very serious drag effect on any recovery! GDP pulled from the future isnt free!

Graham_Devon

chucky wrote: »

call it spin or call it what you like -0.8% isn't good but it isn't the worst case.

Look, nothing can ever be the worst case as there will always be something worse.

There will always be something that could have been worse, no matter how bad the figures.

I have seen this "but it could be worse" arguments on a lot of indicators, employment, house prices, naufacturing, house sales.

It's not an argument, as things could ALWAYS be worse, and that argument can always be used no matter how bad it gets, unless say house sales reach 0.

mbga9pgf

More B*ll Graham. How bad is bad? Its much worse than expected, IE market sentiment is far too bullish for the reality. That is being reflected in market indicators measuring sentiment that are about as far flung from reality as you can get.

chucky

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Look, nothing can ever be the worst case as there will always be something worse.

There will always be something that could have been worse, no matter how bad the figures.

I have seen this "but it could be worse" arguments on a lot of indicators, employment, house prices, naufacturing, house sales.

It's not an argument, as things could ALWAYS be worse, and that argument can always be used no matter how bad it gets, unless say house sales reach 0.

fine, if you're expecting from -4.6% last quarter it to be positive in the next quarter, you have been way too optimitisc or not looking at the bigger picture because the economy isn't in the greatest state.

so considering this please tell me that

• Manufacturing fell by just 0.3% compared to 5.2% in the previous quarter - is a bad thing compared to the last quarter
• Construction recovered from a 6.9% fall to register a 2.2% drop - is a bad thing compared to the last quarter

all of the factors that make up GDP are slow to react and to me they look pretty good compared to last quarter. don't expect things to be turned around in just one quarter or possibly even two. whatever 'your worst case scenario' is, i;d rather have a 0.8% drop (even if worse than expected) than another -4.6% drop!

if you're not happy with that and prefer the -4.6% scenario - you may as well get your tin hat now.

mbga9pgf

i;d rather have a 0.8% drop (even if worse than expected) than another -4.6% drop!

So you would prefer to defer the pain, forgetting that any government stimulus is going to have to be paid out of future GDP? Nice. Sure your kids will thank you for that.

if you're not happy with that and prefer the -4.6% scenario - you may as well get your tin hat now

Its not what I would prefer, its what is neccessary to get our economy at equilibrium. Thats what you bulls dont seem to be able to register.