Could we "officialy" come out of recession tomorrow.

Really2

With Preliminary GDP results out for the last quarter tomorrow is it possible we could be "officially" out of recession?

The current forecast is-0.2% drop, anyone think it could be back to being positive?

chucky

nope, may be 3rd but 4th quarter for me

nearlynew

What about tractor production?

How's that looking?

Thrugelmir

Really2 wrote: »

With Preliminary GDP results out for the last quarter tomorrow is it possible we could be "officially" out of recession?

The current forecast is-0.2% drop, anyone think it could be back to being positive?

Its as good as the Government saying through our actions we've saved 500,000 jobs through our actions.

Whilst ignoring that 2,000,0000 could ultimately lose their jobs.

Whilst it makes headlines doesn't change the direction in which we are heading.

Really2

I must admit I think not until then, But I am sure I heard that April and May were both positive, it all hinges on June.
With the increase in retail sales etc could it push us into the black again?

Also would 0.0% also cause us to come out of recession?

Really2

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Whilst it makes headlines doesn't change the direction in which we are heading.

I disagre if it is not down it does change the direction.

the technical term for a recession ending is not employment increasing, just like a recession does not start when unenployment is increasing.

Surly any step up is better than down?

Crash_Over

Really2 wrote: »

With Preliminary GDP results out for the last quarter tomorrow is it possible we could be "officially" out of recession?

The current forecast is-0.2% drop, anyone think it could be back to being positive?

Interesting.

A tad too early I'd guess, but who knows.

Cannon_Fodder

It wouldn't overly surprise me.

Then after the great news has been greeted and our illustrious leader has taken credit for 3-6 months, the stats will get revised downwards, putting us back into recession "officially" for that period, but we would probably be out by then anyway, so it would be "old" news.

Although being out just means awaiting the next leg down in the W...

Could be enough time for a snap election, before winter negativity sets in.

inspector_monkfish

nearlynew wrote: »

What about tractor production?

How's that looking?

churning over nicely

chucky

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Its as good as the Government saying through our actions we've saved 500,000 jobs through our actions.

Whilst ignoring that 2,000,0000 could ultimately lose their jobs.

Whilst it makes headlines doesn't change the direction in which we are heading.

i don't think that unemployment is a measure of an economy coming out of recession.

2,000,000 could lose their jobs? - unemployment is currently somewhere around 2.3 million. that would be 4.3 million unemployed.

do you have a source for this estimate?

Thrugelmir

chucky wrote: »

i don't think that unemployment is a measure of an economy coming out of recession.

2,000,000 could lose their jobs? - unemplyment is currently somewhere around 2.3 million. that would 4.3 million unemployed.

do you have a source for this estimate?

My reference to unemployment is the total losses during the downturn. Not an additional.

These days the news is dominanted by headlines.

What does out of recession really mean? Yes output has increased for 2 successive quarters. But at what cost ?

As the economy stalled in mid 2008. Production will increase at some point. To put in perspective I did some work for a large German HGV Company in the UK around that time. In the quarter to 30/09/08 they sold 67 tractor units. Whereas their budget was around 450. So from such a low base a some point recovery will happen.