Could we "officialy" come out of recession tomorrow.

Really2

mbga9pgf wrote: »

Nope, not at all. If its positive, its positive. Thats all there is to it. Makes very little difference tbh. Not going to stop over 1 million losing their jobs, or a 6% Contraction in GDP over the next few years.

Its very funny that indicies that measure sentiment seem to get shot down time and time again by the reality of real world figures time and time again. At a time massive stimulus has supposed to have recovered us from a deflationary spiral.

Well it as to turn some time the sooner it does the sooner those unenployed get a job back.

Perhaps a move from "official" will set about a change in confidence, who knows.
But it does seem like some want things to stay bad:)

PS you go on about facts then state there is no stoping a 6% fall in GDP over the next few years. Would that be the same facts

mbga9pgf wrote: »

Dont worry, most of the bulls data comes from the land of the optomist! Never fear! Recovery always just around the corner! (Just ignore market fundamentals, real data and just pay attention to market opinion without looking at the real facts!)

System

Really2 wrote: »

PS you go on about facts then state there is no stoping a 6% fall in GDP over the next few years. Would that be the same facts

mbga has a long history of requesting sources from others without ever providing any himself in his fantasist posts.

Presumably he gets all his facts from the same place that told him about the imaginary bank going bust and the subsequent libor crash, as well that the "carnage" in the FTSE we've had recently thats sees it close to it's 6 month high.

mbga9pgf

Some bad news for you really, just because GDP dips positive for one quarter doesnt mean people stop losing jobs.

Joe, you sound just like numerous posters over at singing pig that were saying exactly the same thing back in September 2007... Just before they were b!tch slapped by the worst recession since World War 2. Many of them are now broke by the way.

ad9898_3

Generali wrote: »

AIUI, a recession starts when GDP has fallen in real (inflation adjusted) terms for 2 consecutive quarters. Officially it ends when GDP rises in real terms for just one quarter. Personally, I would prefer it to be measured as either when GDP returns to the level it was before the recession started or as being when unemployment stops rising. Nobody economist I've ever heard of agrees with me.

It's worth thinking about why GDP is rising and why it may or may not be sustainable. If the Government borrows money and spends it, that will increase GDP as GDP = consumer consumption + investment + Government spending + exports - imports. However, if the Government spends more today and funds that with borrowing it implies that there will be less money spent tomorrow as borrowing moves spending from the future to today. GDP is being increased today at the expense of GDP tomorrow by definition.

Great post Generali as usual, if GDP is up it will be as false as low IR's, QE, borrowing to keep up withe Jones' etc. Oh how I wished we could all see where we are in 12 months time......... all this bullishness will be a distant memory as 'the shopping in the mall stops' and it's time to pay the bill.

I could buy a Lambo today, from the onlooker's point of view, I would look rich and successful, however behind garish paint and tinted screen I would be sitting there, flat broke with a massive debt around my neck........... and so goes the UK.

lostinrates

Say we do coe out of recession now....then what would be expected to happen? To lending, to interest rates, etc etc?

kennyboy66_2

Generali wrote: »

AIUI, a recession starts when GDP has fallen in real (inflation adjusted) terms for 2 consecutive quarters. Officially it ends when GDP rises in real terms for just one quarter. Personally, I would prefer it to be measured as either when GDP returns to the level it was before the recession started or as being when unemployment stops rising. Nobody economist I've ever heard of agrees with me.

It's worth thinking about why GDP is rising and why it may or may not be sustainable. If the Government borrows money and spends it, that will increase GDP as GDP = consumer consumption + investment + Government spending + exports - imports. However, if the Government spends more today and funds that with borrowing it implies that there will be less money spent tomorrow as borrowing moves spending from the future to today. GDP is being increased today at the expense of GDP tomorrow by definition.

Should clarify that Govt spending on things like pensions, social security and interest on borrowing do not form part of the GDP figures.

The GDP returning to previous level sounds reasonable, the unemployment stops rising less so.

kennyboy66_2

lostinrates wrote: »

Say we do coe out of recession now....then what would be expected to happen? To lending, to interest rates, etc etc?

Nothing - a positive figure in Q2 would likely be followed by a negative figure in Q3

wolvoman

mbga9pgf wrote: »

Some bad news for you really, just because GDP dips positive for one quarter doesnt mean people stop losing jobs.

Joe, you sound just like numerous posters over at singing pig that were saying exactly the same thing back in September 2007... Just before they were b!tch slapped by the worst recession since World War 2. Many of them are now broke by the way.

Serious question...
Are you not affected by the recession? Are you retired?

You talk as if a bad recession is somehow a good thing.

mbga9pgf

Its a neccessary thing.

Dan:_4

mbga9pgf wrote: »

Its a neccessary thing.

necessary for what?