Could we "officialy" come out of recession tomorrow.

IveSeenTheLight

I understand two consecutive quarters as it eliminates blips etc.
this is what would make it strange coming out as essentially you could have a 0.1% growth therefore we are out of recession and cannot go back in for a further 6 months, even if the figures drop below 0% again.

chucky

bo_drinker wrote: »

Coming out of recession on paper "officialy" and the real world are miles apart. Try telling the millions made redundant and still unemployed we are out of it on paper, they will laugh at you.

if the economy doesn't come out of recession will that make it better for you?

julieq

mbga9pgf wrote: »

I expect worse than -0.2%. The drops in Manufacturing orders will overcome the gains from retail.

-0.4%+

Cheers Labour.

Where are you getting your data?

Manufacturing orders for the UK are up, as I said elsewhere this is driven to a large extent by Germany which is recovering quite well, we have a very strong currency advantage at the moment which is helpful in exporting into the eurozone. July is likely to be very good indeed incidentally from what I've seen.

The moot point is whether the uplift is due to stock having cleared from the supply chain into ultimate users and reorders becoming necessary, or whether it's a return to something approaching previous levels. As Thrugelmir pointed out, this recession started with essentially the tap being switched off, and there were projections of year on year contraction of 40%+. This is now looking like something around 10-20%. Not good, but well short of worst case estimates.

Cannon_Fodder

julieq wrote: »

Where are you getting your data?

Manufacturing orders for the UK are up...

Can you share your data?

Are you talking actual output or orders?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/5888621/Fall-in-UK-manufacturing-orders-hits-recovery-hopes.html

" Fall in UK manufacturing orders hits recovery hopes.
Orders at Britain's factories fell to the lowest level in more than 17 years in July according to the CBI, dampening hopes of an imminent recovery in the country's beleaguered manufacturing sector. "

"A balance of -59pc of respondents to the business group's quarterly industrial trends survey said that orders were below normal. That was worse than the -57pc balance in April, and the lowest level since January 1992."

Output appears to have a more positive outlook;

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/jul/01/manufacturing-output-rise-pmi-june

"Although the overall readout for the survey, at 47, remained below the key break-even mark which signals positive activity, respondents reported that production had risen for the first time in 15 months."


But from such a sharp downturn, there is bound to be a bounce at some point.

Mr_Mumble

Who officially dictates what is and isn't a recession in the UK? The NBER do the dirty in the US and they take two years to come out with a pronouncement. Its all very much semantics anyhow, the US had two recessions between 1980 and 1981! Huge, unsustainable, government spending can only inflate an economy for so long.

Graham_Devon

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

Can you share your data?

Very good point!!!

Would like to see this data Julie talks about, as the limited stuff I do see on this, on programmes such as Newsnight simply do not correlate with the thoughts in some of the posts.

mbga9pgf

Dont worry, most of the bulls data comes from the land of the optomist! Never fear! Recovery always just around the corner! (Just ignore market fundamentals, real data and just pay attention to market opinion without looking at the real facts!)

Really2

mbga9pgf wrote: »

Dont worry, most of the bulls data comes from the land of the optomist! Never fear! Recovery always just around the corner! (Just ignore market fundamentals, real data and just pay attention to market opinion without looking at the real facts!)

So if the facts tomorrow are if it is negative it is true and it is positive it is manipulated.

Sounds to me like some cut there cloth to suit.

mbga9pgf

Nope, not at all. If its positive, its positive. Thats all there is to it. Makes very little difference tbh. Not going to stop over 1 million losing their jobs, or a 6% Contraction in GDP over the next few years.

Its very funny that indicies that measure sentiment seem to get shot down time and time again by the reality of real world figures time and time again. At a time massive stimulus has supposed to have recovered us from a deflationary spiral.

wolvoman

Really2 wrote: »

So if the facts tomorrow are if it is negative it is true and it is positive it is manipulated.

Sounds to me like some cut there cloth to suit.

Like you never do?