Could we "officialy" come out of recession tomorrow.

bo_drinker

Coming out of recession on paper "officialy" and the real world are miles apart. Try telling the millions made redundant and still unemployed we are out of it on paper, they will laugh at you.

Really2

bo_drinker wrote: »

Coming out of recession on paper "officialy" and the real world are miles apart. Try telling the millions made redundant and still unemployed we are out of it on paper, they will laugh at you.

You can say the same about going in to recession.

I don't get the "tell that to........." is any kind of recovery or stopping the rot unwelcome?

They are less likely to find work if GDP is still falling?

mbga9pgf

I expect worse than -0.2%. The drops in Manufacturing orders will overcome the gains from retail.

-0.4%+

Cheers Labour.

IveSeenTheLight

I understand there needed to be two consecutive negative quarters before we "officially" entered recession.
do we only need the one positive to "officially come out of it"

Wouldn't it be nice if the same criteria for enterring recession was in place for coming out of it

Really2

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I understand there needed to be two consecutive negative quarters before we "officially" entered recession.
do we only need the one positive to "officially come out of it"

Wouldn't it be nice if the same criteria for enterring recession was in place for coming out of it

I thought so originaly but apparently not, so I have been told many times on here, it is one 1/4 out and 2/4 in.

michaels

I'm beginning to feel this too - although there is the question of whether Mr B has the guts for it.

To my mind the economic outlook is no less gloomy than 12 months ago - QE and a huge fiscal deficit have created a false floor but I don't think either are sustainable and I can not see how with increasing taxes and unemployment, reduced govt expenditure and limited credit availability that consumption will be able to sustain the current increases and with little going on abroad I can't see exports and restocking providing anyhting but a temporary filip.

Which brings us to Clowns state of mind - he knows he bottled the snap election before, I get the impression he is now in his own world where whatever he says is right in his mind (witness Afghanistan helicopters) and I can imagine him deciding to go to the country at the end of September on the back of 'solving the crisis' - quite delusional but I can see him achieving a hung parliament as people worry Dave is too light-weight and go for voting for the dour 'devil you know' in uncertain times especially with the promised sharp turn to the left playing on the politics of envy and 'tory cuts'.

After that things look very painful for those employed in the private sector with mega increases in direct taxation, vat and every stealth tax going while public sector unions have a stanglehold on govt spending. Expect to see the public sector well over 50% of gdp

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

It wouldn't overly surprise me.

Then after the great news has been greeted and our illustrious leader has taken credit for 3-6 months, the stats will get revised downwards, putting us back into recession "officially" for that period, but we would probably be out by then anyway, so it would be "old" news.

Although being out just means awaiting the next leg down in the W...

Could be enough time for a snap election, before winter negativity sets in.

nearlynew

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I understand there needed to be two consecutive negative quarters before we "officially" entered recession.
do we only need the one positive to "officially come out of it"

Wouldn't it be nice if the same criteria for enterring recession was in place for coming out of it

It is government figures anyway, so is meaningless. They just make it up to suit.

Remember, government only has 2 aims.............. to tax people as much as possible and to stay in power.

One of the ways of staying in power is through issuing mis-information.

Never underestimate the lengths that they will go to to screw you over.

Generali

AIUI, a recession starts when GDP has fallen in real (inflation adjusted) terms for 2 consecutive quarters. Officially it ends when GDP rises in real terms for just one quarter. Personally, I would prefer it to be measured as either when GDP returns to the level it was before the recession started or as being when unemployment stops rising. Nobody economist I've ever heard of agrees with me.

It's worth thinking about why GDP is rising and why it may or may not be sustainable. If the Government borrows money and spends it, that will increase GDP as GDP = consumer consumption + investment + Government spending + exports - imports. However, if the Government spends more today and funds that with borrowing it implies that there will be less money spent tomorrow as borrowing moves spending from the future to today. GDP is being increased today at the expense of GDP tomorrow by definition.

Really2

nearlynew wrote: »

It is government figures anyway, so is meaningless. They just make it up to suit.

Remember, government only has 2 aims.............. to tax people and to stay in power.

One of the ways of staying in power is through issuing mis-information.

Never underestimate the lengths that they will go to to screw you over.

I am not a labour fan but if that is the case why say we are going in to recession anyway.

They could just say we have been growing so why entertain a recession if they just make up what the people want to hear?

nearlynew

Really2 wrote: »

I am not a labour fan but if that is the case why say we are going in to recession anyway.

They could just say we have been growing so why entertain a recession if they just make up what the people want to hear?

They obviously can't deny the recession itself.

But they have lied, and will continue to lie, about its severity.

They want us to think they are somehow in control of the situation and that only they can provide the solutions.

This, by the way, applies to any government not just the current lot.