Very tasty Bull Food this week.

Graham_Devon

Conrad wrote: »

Graham

Sorry to butt in, but I wanted to bring your attention to something you said tuther day, in terms, 'bulls should ignore local anecdotal stuff'.

However, last week you cited 'all those same houses in my area that had been for sale for a year' which you proferred in your 'the evidence is all around you if you open your eyes' line.

No, I'm can't be @rsed to dig them out, life's too short.

Bears have a propensity to indulge in mental fact filtering, to a far greater degree than bulls. I bet you would be someone to say everything was somehow better when I were a lad - just as EVERY generation at all times claims.

I never cited anything like that.

I stated that it is pointless us all talking about our local streets on a forum to state house prices are rising.

Last week you cited that houses would fall 36% and now you appear to be changing your mind.

Find your last sentence amusing when you have just told me I was saying something I never said.

IveSeenTheLight

Graham_Devon wrote: »

All this trying to make me look silly by ISTL about my revised predictions, but he too has revised from 15% to 22%.

No other bull wants to predict, but wants to laugh around at others.

I laugh at the 70% prediction which you did have and now revised.

For confirmation, my prediciton in May 2008 was for a 22% house price correction now or 15% over three years to cater for inflation.
I also inferred historically corrections have always overshot the long term trend.

Seems like I am spot on so far, but time will tell if this is closer or the 50-70% or revised 40-45% is correct.

Looks like you need a further 27.41% - 33.46% drop to be correct to your latest prediction (LR data £184,493 peak, £152,497 current).

In other words, LR England and Wales average house prices to be between £101,471 and £110,695 to represent the 40-45% drop from peak

Graham_Devon

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I laugh at the 70% prediction which you did have and now revised.

For confirmation, my prediciton in May 2008 was for a 22% house price correction now or 15% over three years to cater for inflation.
I also inferred historically corrections have always overshot the long term trend.

Seems like I am spot on so far, but time will tell if this is closer or the 50-70% or revised 40-45% is correct.

Looks like you need a further 27.41% - 33.46% drop to be correct to your latest prediction (LR data £184,493 peak, £152,497 current).

In other words, LR England and Wales average house prices to be between £101,471 and £110,695 to represent the 40-45% drop from peak

Exactly, which would make them affordable.

IveSeenTheLight

chucky wrote: »

now now Graham - tonka toys back in the pram please...

my prediction is that House Prices will go up 50%

Why so conservative? I predict they will double i.e. go up 100%.
I also gaurantee that I will never be proven to be incorrect, as no timescale has been set.

IveSeenTheLight

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Exactly, which would make them affordable.

They've always been affordable.
Maybe not to all, maybe not to the median population.
Your looking for a higher percentage of population to be able to afford than it has ever been in recorded history. It may simply not be possible to happen.

It seems that it was affordable to 51,000 people last month at the current more stringent lending criteria

chucky

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Why so conservative? I predict they will double i.e. go up 100%.
I also gaurantee that I will never be proven to be incorrect, as no timescale has been set.

i was using the graham devon methodology of predictions

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

In other words, LR England and Wales average house prices to be between £101,471 and £110,695 to represent the 40-45% drop from peak

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Exactly, which would make them affordable.

average salary does not equate to average salary for a home owner... it never has and never will...
tut tut, how many times do we have to explain it to you...

btw if they do get to that amount or even close to it - my cheque will be firmly out!!

Graham_Devon

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

They've always been affordable.
Maybe not to all, maybe not to the median population.
Your looking for a higher percentage of population to be able to afford than it has ever been in recorded history. It may simply not be possible to happen.

It seems that it was affordable to 51,000 people last month at the current more stringent lending criteria

Oi, I aint gonna be dragged into the "house prices are affordable now" argument

IveSeenTheLight

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Oi, I aint gonna be dragged into the "house prices are affordable now" argument

:silenced:

StevieJ

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Because were past 20%, or were.

I know, I know, you use a unique index no one else uses, that you don't understand yourself, as it's lower than your current prediction, therefore your not wrong etc etc yadda.

But I doubt you would like me saying "ahhh, but my prediciton is flats, therefore I am not wrong".

All this pressure and silly posts trying to demean others for their predictions, and yours is already wrong.


.

I ask again, why is mine already wrong Ah I see you only use the Halifax, I see you are not giving up on that Chewbacca defence.

I borrowed this off Dans sig, I assume it is up to date.


Average House Prices
Nationwide £156,442 -15.91% from peak of £186,044 in Oct 2007
Halifax £158,565 -20.65% from peak of £199,770 in Aug 2007
Land Registry £152,497 -18.03 from peak of £186,045 in Jan 2008
FTHPI (Acadmetrics) £197,802 -14.59% from peak of £231,595 in Feb 2008

nearlynew

Where is McTittish?

Has he been banned?