Very tasty Bull Food this week.

IveSeenTheLight

Graham_Devon wrote: »

So can I laugh at you equally then, considering you said 15% and we have passed that already

LOL, go ahead, if I recall exactly I said something like 15% drop over 3 years would re-align house prices to the long term average.

If you think that prediction is laughable when I think records show that the drop only went to circa 18% over a shorter period against your prediction of 70%.
I wonder who is the closest

Graham_Devon wrote: »

We all know the LR is the one to use, though I understand it's hovering around your prediction, and past ISTL's.

This is why I can't really see why it's so hilarious to be going around mocking everyone elses predictions, when so far, they are not wrong, and you and ISTL, are.

Twist all you want Graham, I said 22% immediately or 15% over three years (which catered for inflation).

P.S. I also said that was to re-align with the long term trend and that it could overshoot as per historical evidence.

But since you want to focus and stick on my 15% over three years prediction rather than the 22% with likely overshoot from peak I did predict over a year ago and state I am wrong (out by 3% I believe), can you not see how laughable your prediction of 70% (52% out I believe so far) is given it was only 4 months ago?

ruggedtoast

You lot really need to get out more.

Graham_Devon

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

LOL, go ahead, if I recall exactly I said something like 15% drop over 3 years would re-align house prices to the long term average.

If you think that prediction is laughable when I think records show that the drop only went to circa 18% over a shorter period against your prediction of 70%.
I wonder who is the closest



Twist all you want Graham, I said 22% immediately or 15% over three years (which catered for inflation).

P.S. I also said that was to re-align with the long term trend and that it could overshoot as per historical evidence.

But since you want to focus and stick on my 15% over three years prediction rather than the 22% with likely overshoot from peak I did predict over a year ago and state I am wrong (out by 3% I believe), can you not see how laughable your prediction of 70% (52% out I believe so far) is given it was only 4 months ago?

Twist all you like and use the 70% instead of the 50%

See, we can all twist

Ruggest toast is completely right.

As for predictions, watching where the US is heading, and where that would leave us, and the fact they are already past 30% declines (I believe), 50% may not be so laughable soon.

That deflation that bulls keep laughing about has now happened in the US. They are now looking at further stimulation packages as a dose of medicine, but they simply cannot afford it. Unemployment has shot to 10%, deflation, China could now lead the recovery.

But good old UK. We of course have our own little bubble surrounding us. Could never happen to us, oh no!

IveSeenTheLight

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Twist all you like and use the 70% instead of the 50%

See, we can all twist

Is it a twist? It's within your prediction range?
Ok, I choose the extremity, just like you chose my lower prediction over three years rather than take in the context as I had written it and ignored that I refered to the historical overshoot

Still, even choosing your lower prediction, I was 3% out of my three year 15% option from over a year ago and you would still be currently 35% out since your march prediciton which seems to be getting worse since then

Graham_Devon wrote: »

50% may not be so laughable soon.

We'll see.

You back in your 50-70% prediction then?
When do you predict this will occur? By saying soon, I would think this would infer in the coming months (something in the near future) or do you want a wide tolerance ala your percentage prediction say 0 - 10 years :shocked:

Graham_Devon

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

You back in your 50-70% prediction then?
When do you predict this will occur? By saying soon, I would think this would infer in the coming months (something in the near future) or do you want a wide tolerance ala your percentage prediction say 0 - 10 years :shocked:

No, I'm sticking with my revised 45-55%.

I don't predict when it will occur, too much interference from the government, and no doubt if Obama get's the go ahead for a second dose of medicine, the UK will follow.

Graham_Devon

StevieJ wrote: »

Sorry, remind me why I am wrong

Because were past 20%, or were.

I know, I know, you use a unique index no one else uses, that you don't understand yourself, as it's lower than your current prediction, therefore your not wrong etc etc yadda.

But I doubt you would like me saying "ahhh, but my prediciton is flats, therefore I am not wrong".

All this pressure and silly posts trying to demean others for their predictions, and yours is already wrong.

All this trying to make me look silly by ISTL about my revised predictions, but he too has revised from 15% to 22%.

No other bull wants to predict, but wants to laugh around at others.

Dan:_4

Graham_Devon wrote: »

No, I'm sticking with my revised 45-55%

I don't predict when it will occur, too much interference from the government, and no doubt if Obama get's the go ahead for a second dose of medicine, the UK will follow.

This does not mean a thing without a time scale.

Conrad

Graham

Sorry to butt in, but I wanted to bring your attention to something you said tuther day, in terms, 'bulls should ignore local anecdotal stuff'.

However, last week you cited 'all those same houses in my area that had been for sale for a year' which you proferred in your 'the evidence is all around you if you open your eyes' line.

No, I'm can't be @rsed to dig them out, life's too short.

Bears have a propensity to indulge in mental fact filtering, to a far greater degree than bulls. I bet you would be someone to say everything was somehow better when I were a lad - just as EVERY generation at all times claims.

Graham_Devon

Dan: wrote: »

This does not mean a thing without a time scale.

The "bottom" can only be realised when were out of it.

I cannot put a timescale on this. What was your prediction dan? We past that too?

chucky

Graham_Devon wrote: »

No other bull wants to predict, but wants to laugh around at others.

now now Graham - tonka toys back in the pram please...

my prediction is that House Prices will go up 50%