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Very tasty Bull Food this week.
HAMISH_MCTAVISH
Posts: 28,592 Forumite
For those of you that have not seen it, there is an excellent website full of useful stats at ukhouseprices.net.
Latest data from there is amazing.
The house price futures market has swung dramatically upwards from the end of last year. The projection in blue dots is the spreadfair series from last december, which predicted substantial further declines. The series in blue dots is the current Tradition property derivitives series, and is now predicting only small further declines to the high 140K range, from a current low 150K range
Latest data from there is amazing.
The house price futures market has swung dramatically upwards from the end of last year. The projection in blue dots is the spreadfair series from last december, which predicted substantial further declines. The series in blue dots is the current Tradition property derivitives series, and is now predicting only small further declines to the high 140K range, from a current low 150K range
“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”
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Comments
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The next image is that of the mortgage approvals required for price neutrality. This has been quite a good predictor, but if anything has been too pessimistic, as we all know prices started rising in February, at a level below the predictor called it.
Approvals have now crossed the 51,000 level, and the chart has now achieved price neutrality, along with real world prices increasing.
However as the chart appears to have been a little off with price rises for the last few months, I would suggest that we should be firmly into positive price growth territory by now. It'll be interesting to track this moving forwards to see how much rising prices raise the level of approvals required to sustain them though.
“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
And if anyone wants to query whether rising prices means approvals also need to go up, spline (the author of the site) just posted on HPC that current approval levels are consistent with price neutrality.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
All right Hamish. I'll give you a mercy bump. (ooer).
Just so you dont have to reply to your own thread a 3rd time.
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TBH hamish, 125K average price was always my get in point. Represents 35% off peak which from what I had calculated as 'fair price' from the peak. Besides, those curves show stagnation in prices which equates to real world price drops till 2015. Seeing as I am possibly b*ggering off abroad for 3 years tax free, that graph suits me down to the ground.
Its also interesting to see neither index seems to factor in pre/post election changes to the financial markets, unemployment benefgit and the likes of mortgage relief for the unemployed. All of which are about to see massive changes in the next 18 months IMHO. As for civil sector non-jobs, I believe the Tories are going to model their cuts on the Canadian model, which, if you were a civil servant in canada, you will know is a mainly bad thing for your employment prospects. (20% cut to public sector spending, further 50% cut on the way).
I like it though Hamish, you are actually backing up your argument with real world stats, which makes a first.0 -
A small drop and 5 years of price stagnation... Interesting how the definition of 'bull' is changing.0
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A small drop and 5 years of price stagnation... Interesting how the definition of 'bull' is changing.
It hasn't, most "bulls" weren't bulls to start with. I'm still yet to see anyone who predicts rampant HPI any time soon, even Hamish predicts drops into next year.This is a system account and does not represent a real person. To contact the Forum Team email forumteam@moneysavingexpert.com0 -
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Graham_Devon wrote: »And consistently tells us the crash is over.
Depends on the thread.
I take it you have a few examples of this then?
For the sake of consistency.....;)
I'm pretty sure I have been consistent in saying there will be further falls over next winter.
“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
Hamish you are deluded. Keep posting this stuff though, we all like a good laugh.0
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Graham_Devon wrote: »And consistently tells us the crash is over.
Depends on the thread.
The hyper-crash has just turned into a media induced recovery. The housing market is just smoke and mirrors; just like our economy. Gordon will do everything to keep things like they are until after the election.
The unsustainable nature of such a recovery just means that the problem has just been delayed for later. The threat of swine flu may accelerate the return to normality.0
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