US ($) Currency Thread 2

sabretoothtigger

Nice timing as I might need to buy something in dollars is a possible breakout in sterling.
If it holds with confidence above 1.315 Im willing to be optimistic for now. I guess it will take time to build, test or possibly fail. Not sure if any news is swaying it and could turn it back down

Friday tomorrow, but after Im just pondering if its starting something or not

Targets/limits 1.333 1.365 1.39 1.417 1.43

sabretoothtigger

Failed move higher is showing great weakness now, like slipping on a rung of a ladder I guess.
Dollar is stronger, this could be drawn parallel to a likely Trump loss.:money:
forex is very political I guess




https://www.ft.com/content/f1465348-8b72-11e6-8cb7-e7ada1d123b1

My own estimate, I have 1.263 as a low with a 1.288 as a target to beat, its weak till it does at least that much. Falling since the start of September for so long, a bounce attempt of some kind would be normal is my guess

sabretoothtigger

I was correct on this area for an inflection point, wrong on the direction as it has failed to hold that low or channel bottom and Sterling is down with quite some momentum.

1.263 is the price it must regain, its off my chart and out of bounds of the regular downtrend of the last two years.
Extremely negative sentiment is in play apparently, wish I knew if this marks the nadir but dollar isnt perfect either just better supported globally

Followed Ashraf Laidi a while
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000557344&play=1

Popppet

Hi All,

I'm normally a fairly sensible sort but now I've gone and booked a US holiday, less than two weeks before the US presidential election. The travel dates will be March 2017, around the time Article 50 might be triggered.

I'd greatly appreciate some reassurance regarding exchange rates and when to get the cash. My current game plan is to exchange some (half?) money before the election, and the remaining amount afterwards (either straight away if Mr T wins and markets go into meltdown, or at some point in the winter otherwise)

I do have a good travel credit card but that may not be the cheapest given the fluctuating (or nosediving) exchange rates. Perhaps it would be worth bringing more cash than normal - but on the other hand I probably don't want to sell back $ after article 50.

I don't expect anybody here has a crystal ball, but if someone thinks I've failed to consider some obvious aspect, please do advise. Perhaps the banks have a "horrendous rates the week after halloween" tradition?

Many thanks

jackieblack

Popppet wrote: »

Hi All,

I'm normally a fairly sensible sort but now I've gone and booked a US holiday, less than two weeks before the US presidential election. The travel dates will be March 2017, around the time Article 50 might be triggered.

I'd greatly appreciate some reassurance regarding exchange rates and when to get the cash. My current game plan is to exchange some (half?) money before the election, and the remaining amount afterwards (either straight away if Mr T wins and markets go into meltdown, or at some point in the winter otherwise)

I do have a good travel credit card but that may not be the cheapest given the fluctuating (or nosediving) exchange rates. Perhaps it would be worth bringing more cash than normal - but on the other hand I probably don't want to sell back $ after article 50.

I don't expect anybody here has a crystal ball, but if someone thinks I've failed to consider some obvious aspect, please do advise. Perhaps the banks have a "horrendous rates the week after halloween" tradition?

Many thanks

As you say, no-one has a crystal ball and no-one can give you any cast iron reassurance.
I travel to the USA every year and this is my philosophy on the fluctuations in the exchange rate.
I work on an average spend while away of $2500.
If the rate drops by 10c from what it was when I booked, that's going to cost me under £200 more. Of course, I'd prefer not to have to spend the extra, but would I have not booked had the cost been £200 more at the time? No.
Of course, some trips the rate has improved after booking, so overall I'm probably no worse off. But, realistically, currency rates fluctuate all the time and there's nothing I can do to influence them, so I choose not to get too stressed about it.
I know I'll have a great time and the memories will last far longer than any angst over any increase in the cost

gazzaj69

of to vegas in 2 weeks time.should i chose to pay in dollar's or sterling when using my CC

sabretoothtigger

I always think half and half is fairest, spend half or get half of the holiday money just before you go.
Trump getting in will shock the system, again its all speculation. The USA system is he wont get any actual power to change till Jan 20th.

But as a shock that event will change prices most. The direction is hard to say but the FED chair is a Democrat and very loose on money (rates etc) Trump is a hawk ? Ive no idea but perception would be harder money i guess


I wont change my opinion from above, Sterling is weak. Till it clambers above where it fell at least.
Right now its hitting its head, not sure really
http://i.imgur.com/fHWHEQ9.png

sabretoothtigger

1.25 Its a good fight but it nearly aint won yet

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-21/pound-jumps-almost-1-percent-in-one-minute-of-trading-chart?cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/gbp-usd/2016/11/21/daily-classics-gbpusd-11-21-2016-srepstans.html?ref-author=Stanley


Ashraf Laidi a forex trader Ive followed since the big fuss back in 2008.
[URL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cSMTSfpSGHw"][IMG]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cx9SmNrWIAQjtss.jpg[/IMG][/URL]
 [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cSMTSfpSGHw[/url]

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/news/pound-jumps-amid-speculation-uk-can-reach-single-market-deal/ar-AAl0gdc?li=BBoPWjQ&ocid=iehp

sabretoothtigger

Im inclined to think sterling should rise in 2017 more then fall. Since brexit is ongoing thats purely a guess, the dust is not settled and theres no clear view.
Doubt is not a bullish prospect :think: - I clipped a positive news article though

1.235 is the first rung on a long slippery ladder

On the economic front, the good news continues to roll in, confounding those (myself included) who feared the worst in the Brexit aftermath. Figures released Monday, for example, show U.K. manufacturing growing at its fastest pace since mid-2014 in December as the weaker pound boosted exports and helped the industry shrug off its post-Brexit dip:

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-01-04/sterling-s-post-brexit-depression-looks-melodramatic?cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&cmpid%3D=socialflow-facebook-brexit&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

jackieblack

Happy New Year sabretoothtigger!
Thanks for the updates
(Current travel plans on hold at the moment, but I always have an eye on the rate with a view to future travel plans.)