UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

Stavros_3

Been a good week for the Ftse 100 up to 4559.80 at end of play

tradetime

Hehe, head above the 960 level, and we had blast off. A little pop in volume, but dare I say it, still not inspiring, after the recent bear trap on the much publicized H&S pattern one does wonder could this market have something similar in mind for bulls?.
However, volume aside, this is a vicious market, extremely powerful moves and it is never prudent to get speculative against such a market, next level for me (assuming no bull trap emerges ) is as mentioned before is 1014, that represents the 38% retrace of the entire down move, and the first reactionary highs after the waterfall move late last year, it may give the market an excuse to correct..

uk_steve

another good day for me

sold 2 today with big plus marks

im feeling good for the weekend

sabretoothtigger

I was reading how some fund has bought 72 million options to place on the sp500 at 950 before year end, seems very bearish or cautious if its a hedge

Also CI or confidence indicators are lit up red showing an overbought market, doesnt have to mean anything I guess just like running a red is only bad if a car was coming the other way


Watching Hsbc ,ex div 19th aug results 3rd aug.
Since they are quite big in usa I think I'll look again after results and hope the news was awful They are listing in china



http://www.maniacworld.com/run-a-red-light.htm





dollar index trend is sideways since week start




British banking sector has not been this positive since summer 2007:

http://!!!!!!/11SXBo

tradetime

I was reading how some fund has bought 72 million options to place on the sp500 at 950 before year end, seems very bearish or cautious if its a hedge

I'm assuming, depending on how old that story was they must be OTM Puts, a lot of money there, unless it's old and they are calls and well happy now. Second thoughts, forget the calls, you'd be seriously brave, or in the know to have bought 950 calls. Wonder what month they are? A cool $3,960,000,000 I suspect that story is a little more complicated than the article presented, no strike trades in that sort of volume.

sabretoothtigger

Options is 1000 units, should have said shares really but still its alot

One fund rolled UP its SPY August downside protection at 92 strike into December 95 strike, for some 72,000,000 shares of SPY (S&P-500 ETF) it holds. Yes, 720K put contracts on SPY, a "jaw dropper," was one trade today that cleared at the ISE in NYC.

http://www.hamzeianalytics.net/


He said today would be big maybe, I dont really believe that because any big day will probably be when the market is knocked sideways by something it didnt see & till then we have the stupid 'less worse' bs :laugh:

If average for the ftse this decade has been 5100 then we're still in less worse territory I guess. Alot of our big shares have yields over 5% and I dont think they have that in america, their average pe is probably way above ours.
I cant see any good reason not to buy and hold vodafone or hsbc and alot of the big commodity stocks. Thats practically half of the ftse net worth


Just because I prefer being pesimistic (on usa at least), I'd guess we're forming a M formation on the sp500. We're in the top right hand corner, just need a fallback end of today or monday will do

A pullback before we get four figures would make sense anyway and if the dollar index isnt falling anymore it puts more pressure on the nominal value of stocks to be justifyed

tradetime

Hehe, that makes a little more sense SPX options (S&P500 index) are cash settled options, they deliver $100 per point.

Stock options are for 100 shares per contract btw.

tradetime

Imho the stockmarket is in La la Land, totally out of touch with reality. Even if you set the fundamentals to one side, there is uncertainty everywhere, the market hates uncertainty, volume is totally unsupportive of the move, even we allow for the fact that volume has a new norm at lower levels, there is no significant spike on the rise to confirm institutional participation with any conviction but I'm not going to fight it, it matters little to me why it goes where it goes.. A low volume market is very easy to manipulate, I suspect it is now more than ever the chosen medium of communication between the government and the people, if the stock market is doing ok, then the government must be on top of the economic problems.. The sad thing is that it will be the average man in the street investor who gets sucked in to the next bust. 401k's that are now 201k's will soon be 101k's

turbobob

tradetime wrote: »

The sad thing is that it will be the average man in the street investor who gets sucked in to the next bust. 401k's that are now 201k's will soon be 101k's

What are your thoughts? Sometimes I wonder if we are in a very big and very long term asset bubble, that could take decades to play out. Maybe the last crash is just the start of a return to a much longer term norm? This Dow chart from 1970 to date illustrates.



Whatever happens, if its bad, the "man in the street" who only knows he pays into his pension or endowment mortgage or whatever and expects it to do what it was taken out for, will probably suffer the most.

sabretoothtigger

Secular bear market in shares and secular bull market in commodities. Secular I think means we cant possibly know if its correct till after the Olympics maybe.

I think western markets have been over valued, they'll level off but growth will be in emerging markets where it should actually be.

If we consider the markets were actually corrupt in this last 10 or 20 years even then the readjustment should mean money actually flows to where the growth is justified by company performance and no more of this ridiculous 40 PE valuations on stocks that arent growing that fast or have that much potential


Ive thought this for a few years vaguely but its like a tide change, you cant tell which way its moving when its turning, its harder to see till after its happened

This isnt a proper explanation but there is more on their website:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t1eRaWpRi78

SENSEX 100000 in 15 years: 14% annual gains for the next 15 years (ex-dividend)

Consistency is what matters really, traders can make money in a bear market but most people will want to be immersed in overall growth so thats what Im looking for

7% average growth every year for ten years means you double your money. Ftse long term average is 3%
96% vs 34% that would be over 10 years