UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

uk_steve

so honeslty guys and girls do you think this rally we are now seeing is going to last for awhile?

reason being i have a dilema i have a cash pot to re invest now but my heart is saying (WAIT) for 6- 8 weeks dont know why but just the fear we could slide back into a bear rally again very soon

everything seems to be on wafer thin foundations in the Uk Stock Market when i read

so many conflicting storys out there

sorry my grammer is rubbish



all the best

wombat42_2

uk_steve wrote: »

so honeslty guys and girls do you think this rally we are now seeing is going to last for awhile?

reason being i have a dilema i have a cash pot to re invest now but my heart is saying (WAIT) for 6- 8 weeks dont know why but just the fear we could slide back into a bear rally again very soon

everything seems to be on wafer thin foundations in the Uk Stock Market when i read

so many conflicting storys out there

sorry my grammer is rubbish



all the best

There is talk by some commentators of another 20% rise in the markets by year end. But nothing is certain. It is always very difficult to time the market, thats why you should really be prepared to invest for 5 years plus to iron out the ups and downs. Anything short term is a gamble and may or may not pay off.

uk_steve

wombat42 wrote: »

There is talk by some commentators of another 20% rise in the markets by year end. But nothing is certain. It is always very difficult to time the market, thats why you should really be prepared to invest for 5 years plus to iron out the ups and downs. Anything short term is a gamble and may or may not pay off.

thats something i just touched on in another thread (the quick in and outs) i do want to get out of this methord i have done
Ok i have done really well
(in the time frame off 5mths the best money making profit i have done in my life)
but i have the feeling its time to settle down on my next stocks i buy and go for good dividends companys and do the tortoise approach not my speedy gonzales hare approach (GAMBLE)

sabretoothtigger

The market could be described as frothy.
A good example I reckon would be to go heat a pan of milk till it boils over - a market high exceeding all expectations? :laugh: then see what happens the gas is turned off and how much substance is actually left over to be used practically

I think the above could be true and might describe the confusion as to the true value in the market. I didnt ever study economics just statistics but seems to me the gas is on full burner in terms of market heat or money movements? Its the performance in the weakest of times that matters mostly?

It really seems like it could go either way, my opinion is stick to an estimate of the real value of anything you buy unless your aim is to gamble

Some ftse100 shares are cheaper now then 6 months ago still, some are level over the last 3 months and its worth considering them at least

I reckon anything showing a V shape on a 1yr graph is worth considering for a 'special dividend' ie. taking profits
unless theres a reason why they should do better now then a year ago



http://www.investorresearch.mdgms.com/tools/heat_maps.html?INDEX=1918069&SECTOR=&DPCATEGORY=SP&SPPLOT=M3&CBPLOT=CAP&DDPLOT=BUY%3A1MONTH&ORDERBY=TOP


In a rough take on whats worth looking at, right in the middle here is Shell and wpp. I allready thought about those anyway. Others that imo seem worth a look at least would be bg, tesco.

I dont know the others at all but thats one valid point of view to weigh things up imo.
Really its just a sentiment indicator because its only showing share prices, everything else has to confirm it for a buy as well

tonygee_3

Hi everyone,
been away for a few days and pleased to see plenty of 'blue' in portfolio
uk steve are you still holding IPF? Showing +50% here
Dont panic,retain cash for next falls,I expect volatility for at least 3 more years.look for proven 'bouncers' or profit warnings
Ive bought/triggered CMS PTEC & LAD whilst away

tonygee_3

REX worth watching tomorrow,RI expected.

gfplux

kittie wrote: »

My dh has retired gfplux and I have been very busy re-investing his cash during the past few weeks. The sipp now hold £6 cash equivalent to zero and his shares are doing very well. Look at the interest you are getting on cash. You`ll probably find that it is actually less than the inflation on food. I have to qualify that he also has fixed interest items and many of his shares are rock solid with good divis ie yields of around 5-7%

You have been badly bitten in the past and I can understand your thinking but imo this rally has legs. You need to take into account the relative costs of selling etc

Hello Kittie,
I think you got the wrong end of the stick. I have been 85% cash since mid 2007 so missed (not badly bitten at all) losing around 30% of my money as I was out the market. However the remaining 15% (was +20%) have as you could see from my post 442, have lost various values.
I regret not going 100% in 2007 but I have missed most of the bad times.
My priority is (my) wealth protection so I do not know whether to sell my remaining holdings into the present strong market, so being 100% cash or just sit on my hands.
I am not inclined at present to invest further in the market as I want to sleep at night.
Even with very low returns for cash I am close to protecting my wealth.
Hope you understand my problems.
Thanks.

sabretoothtigger

In that context holding 30% seems more reasonable and I'd argue for dripping the 70% back into investments over some years, regardless of feelings on short or medium term direction

Obviously I dont know your circumstances but in general I wouldnt tell people to sell everything because you will end up holding all you have in british currency instead and thats just another kind of investment anyway

A company, its assets or its stock is more dynamic then just plain cash so long term I'd rate it more highly for 'wealth protection'. My personal guess is ftse100 wont crash from here, Ive not really heard anything to describe that, poor growth is what I'd expect overall but cash would still be worse imo. 20% possible decline doesnt merit being 100% cash

I rate the person whose held standard chartered shares 20 years and didnt care about the recent price drops, what does it matter when they are being held anyway. If they keep paying the dividends out and business is as well run as it always was then its not a problem.
Sure there was speculative money to make from that situation but thats another matter


PTEC looks a good case at first look but Im not sure I'd be interested in their business otherwise






Markets destabilising from the 'air pocket' in volume at prices above here is one explanation why we might well spike upwards though it seems incorrect

www.Bigcharts.com is where you can setup a chart like this for price by volume for any stock if you like




Ptec - Major support around here but might be better to wait till 350 to buy in. It could fall to 280 before finding any grip

[Deleted User]

I sold all my BGC (good profit, no yield) I have cancelled my limit buy for GSK. I have again spent the lot this morning eg added to one of my oils at rolling yield 6.39 and a P/E of 8.69. Some energies, more VOD etc. I decided I have got to make the cash work, its no good sitting on a lump at 0.0ziltch %. I still have no big % in littlies but hold PFL, BBA, OXIG and added to EMED. Thats all the little ones. I do have a good chunk in TEP and the rest are pretty defensive again but now I am not quite as defensive but safe enough. I am not ready for more manufacturing and the likes of media yet

The relentless rise seems unreal and dangerous

uk_steve

tonygee wrote: »

Hi everyone,
been away for a few days and pleased to see plenty of 'blue' in portfolio
uk steve are you still holding IPF? Showing +50% here
Dont panic,retain cash for next falls,I expect volatility for at least 3 more years.look for proven 'bouncers' or profit warnings
Ive bought/triggered CMS PTEC & LAD whilst away

Hi Tony
that was 1 of the shares i sold last week

i did well because i purchased twice on that share

thanks for the heads up on that 1;)


matter of intrest did that have dividends? did i sell too quickly maybe