UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

tradetime

Yes I've heard him refer to cash rich tech companies such as these being good investments some time back. one might need to look at the price performance of such companies since that particular recommendation, as if they have appreciated too much, the value may be lost. Nasdaq is again leading the markets and has now broken to new highs, s&p, Dax, and Dow remain in a test of the h&s pattern which is likely to resolve this week. Earnings from Citi and BoA were ok as expected, with earnings season now in full swing there will be no shortage of market moving news in the coming weeks.

sabretoothtigger

Anything interesting likely to happen this week? Not sure on important results or dates especially, will check later I guess


Ive watched a couple videos this weekend, potential upside for the sp500 is given as 1100.
Obviously that doesnt have to happen next week but just putting it out there that we wont necessarily stop at 4500 ftse like we have done before, who knows


Just stumbled across some old ftse data I put online, taken from yahoo who give this out freely.
It examines the case for regular investment using the last 10 yr ftse data

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=r2qvgg_VO1fas3orkIOEkAg

The average ftse100 for the last ten years was 5100 I think thats correct




http://www.youtube.com/user/thermal1



Added WPP & ENRC to my watchlist

turbobob

A tech company that caught my eye is Autonomy Corporation (AU. on the LSE). It plummeted last week on what appeared to be pretty good results. Apparently the statement that accompanied the results was not as upbeat as was expected. I'm thinking about it as a possible long term buy.

ENRC is on my watchlist too. Its very volatile.. It broke above 750p last week which is a resistance point, I think. Considering it as one to buy on the dip.

tradetime

Yes, ENRC is also one I have been watching, don't really know anything about it though.

A break out above the highs, re-opens my original target of 1014 on the S&P, which represents a 38% retrace of the entire move down. The Nasdaq is already there, or thereabouts and will seek to fill a gap left over from October, 1900 -1940 on the COMPQ
Not sure where the s&p 1100 figure comes from, though the 50% retrace is at 1121, so could be a rough expression of that. Not sure where that all relates to the FTSE, though for the DAX 5318 would be the 38% retrace which comes in close to a reaction low from 2006. Volume still seems to be printing light, though as I'm not sure just what real volume is anymore since the deleveraging cycle, we may have to reset to new normals for volume.
On the earnings front most of the big banks have now reported, only Morgan left much later I think.this week will bring many smaller regional banks.
Companies of note to report this week are many, but here's a few of the early ones.
Texas Instruments today
AMD, Apple, Yahoo and Caterpillar Tuesday.
Asia looks to have been strong overnight, so it likes like we carry on from where we left off.

sabretoothtigger

July 20 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. boosted its forecast for the Standard & Poor 500 Index, saying improving earnings will spur the steepest second-half rally since 1982.
The benchmark index for U.S. stocks will advance 15 percent from its June 30 level to 1,060 on Dec. 31, an increase from David Kostin’s prior projection of 940. The chief U.S. investment strategist at New York-based Goldman Sachs also lifted his 2009 and 2010 earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies to $52 and $75 a share, which are 30 percent and 19 percent higher than prior estimates.

I think this is bs but I wouldnt want to fight the tide either, 930 still seems more reasonable for year end whatever occurs meantime

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=alcaYpBt0PvY



Enrc is partially owned by Kaz, 25% if I remember right and they have come from like 200 to 700 and now yield half of enrc
Im not sure if they planned a take over at some point, probably worth reading up on all these miners tbh

Kaz was tipped by Anthony Bolton - Fidelity Fund Manager

tradetime

I think this is bs but I wouldnt want to fight the tide either

Agree, somewhere over 1000 is doable on the S&P, but imho, it happens now or not this year, but that's an opinion and they can prove expensive to trade From a technical perspective odds would favour a failure of the H&S test, in which case we breakdown, but I'll take it whichever way it goes, we should get a definitive break one way or the other fairly soon.

sabretoothtigger

Noticed (a bit late )what looked like a double bottom on the 8th of July and today at 949 the sp500 looks to have given a double touch in a similar (smaller / compressed) way.

Its not exactly reliable but it qualifys as a short term indicator in my book.

The dollar index has gained since 14:30 but is still down from friday and usd has slow gains against the yen
10yr gilts gained and fell flat from friday



I liked this quote because I think it explains why market movements are so confusing, with the market valued in dollars everytime that goes down something else goes up. Its a bit like a seesaw, its hard to tell where we are moving or if we are at all

S&P Could Go To 50,000 said Jim Rogers



"It's a bear market rally. I was going to say I don't think S&P 500 will see new highs. But I have to quickly temper that by saying against the dollar because the S&P 500 could triple from here if they print enough money and the value of the US dollar collapses, then S&P could go to 50,000, Dow Jones can go to 1,00,000. Which is one reason why I am not shorting stocks right now. Because there is a possibility of this sort of a thing. There is a possibility that stocks could go through unheard of levels, but would be in worthless currency."
said Jim Rogers in an interview with The Economic Times of India

tradetime

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Noticed (a bit late )what looked like a double bottom on the 8th of July and today at 949 the sp500 looks to have given a double touch in a similar (smaller / compressed) way.

Its not exactly reliable but it qualifys as a short term indicator in my book.

The dollar index has gained since 14:30 but is still down from friday and usd has slow gains against the yen
10yr gilts gained and fell flat from friday



I liked this quote because I think it explains why market movements are so confusing, with the market valued in dollars everytime that goes down something else goes up. Its a bit like a seesaw, its hard to tell where we are moving or if we are at all
Quote:
S&P Could Go To 50,000 said Jim Rogers



"It's a bear market rally. I was going to say I don't think S&P 500 will see new highs. But I have to quickly temper that by saying against the dollar because the S&P 500 could triple from here if they print enough money and the value of the US dollar collapses, then S&P could go to 50,000, Dow Jones can go to 1,00,000. Which is one reason why I am not shorting stocks right now. Because there is a possibility of this sort of a thing. There is a possibility that stocks could go through unheard of levels, but would be in worthless currency."
said Jim Rogers in an interview with The Economic Times of India

LOL yes I saw that quote, I'd stick my neck out and say for me that's not even an option, least ways not anytime this decade (famous last words ) I think if we could go there in any less time, the stockmarket would be the least of our concerns.

sabretoothtigger

I agree but the end of the decade is a canny hedge to say, when its only 5 months away now!
I dont think it'll happen all at once



Just doing some rough calcs on rough data but if the dollar index has fallen 4% since June 8th when we had a high of 946 that same day, it would now make the same figure today as 982

The temporary high of 949 we see today for the moment only equates to 913 in diminished dollar value.

This assumes that stocks adjust perfectly for currency which is probably not true of anything besides gold and maybe some commoditys, it puts alot of doubt into the figures I guess


Seen a few articles on this dollar demise just pop up today, really I would like to see a chart ratio of dollar index vs sp500


In comparison the Ftse and the pound have risen together recently, which makes us more highly valued or more subject to fallback depending on your perspective. Large parts of the ftse are oil and miners, in our defence though




This chart shows it roughly, we've gained vs usa about 1.5% or a grand total of 66 pts going on todays close :laugh:








American discusses how dollar will copy the uk currency weakness

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JtjGYC0ti4Q

tradetime

I agree but the end of the decade is a canny hedge to say, when its only 5 months away now!

Hehe, badly worded I guess, what I meant was not within the next 10 years.

S&P closed at around 950, I guess you could say we have reached the tipping point. Texas Instruments, beat expectations after the bell but is trading down currently by about 1%

Amongst the pre-market earnings tomorrow, these should set the tone,Caterpillar, Merck,. Schering-Plough, Coca-Cola, United Technologies, DuPont, to name but a few, though to be honest they are coming so thick and fast any group can have an effect even they are not big name. I'd expect many of the smaller regional banks to disappoint and this may spook the market. Looking at the big banks earnings, much of the upside came from their trading desks, the regionals do not have trading desks so they'll give us a better view of how standard banking is coping.