UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

tradetime

Markets holding steady so far, all the "Systemically important" earnings are good. I am inclined to believe that is the way it will stay. From watching testimony re the BOA and Merrill fiasco, I keep hearing the words"Systemically important" It seems that's the magic phrase that allows you to do anything, in the interests of the greater good. I am inclined to think that no "systemically important" company will post anything that might pose systemic risk. How's that for a conspiracy theory

tradetime

uk_steve wrote: »

thats something i need to do with my new portfolio i am building


all i have been doing is buying and selling over the last 4 mths



I am now learning i was proberly better off keeping stock i had with divideds
because the returns are good in the 1st place

mind you saying that i sold gemd today



its all learning for me

I suspect it's horses for courses, you need to take some time, sit down and plan what you hope to achieve, your objectives, and then set about determining the best way that you can achieve that. I personally prefer to move in and out of the market, even on my longer term stuff (obviously the short term trading speaks for itself) You have to balance the cost of transactions, lost dividends, missing out on a move because you are out, etc against what you can make by holding and any perceived risks, there is always the option of hedging, particularly if it's broad market risk that is the worry.

sabretoothtigger

conspiracy implies its illegal but when government decides to do it, who knows how to consider it.

Basically I have the same theory, markets wont go down because they arent really given this option. Lowering rates to zero is just the first part of a general strategy against cash, I think something has to give but Im really guessing about how it'll actually happen.

Generally if I have to buy shares it'd be with a bias against western currency, so commoditys but which companies will suffer most Im not clear on.
If SL has 3 bn cash or liquid assets does that mean their position is less valuable compared to a company with big debt and presumably improving prospects

Pic to go with your sig

[Deleted User]

It is best to get out at the top and in at the bottom of major cycles and that is what I did, several times, ie I have been 100% in cash when I thought it was appropriate. Just now, these are mini waves which, imo, are either forming a pretty good base or set to flat line to the future. Selling at one of hese mini high points is hardly likely to make profits if the intention is to get back in, taking into account the bid-offer spread, dealing costs plus stamp duty. There have been times when I have been glad to get back in on break even. I have been fortunate in buying back to gain a few hundred shares and other times when I look for a different stock after kicking myself for selling

If we knew what was after the hard right edge then we would all be rich

tradetime

Hehe like the picture. Another very strong day, Nasdaq leading as it should, as I type this looks like Google has a big beat on earnings, no surprise there. We are now in a full on test of the H&S patterns on the majors, a failure should produce a sharp selloff, and a successful break should produce a substantial rally, looks like we may resolve this one way or another this week. IBM beats as well, hold on to your hats

scottburke

anybody any idea when or if RBS and Lloyds are releasing there 2nd quarter financial reports?

tradetime

scottburke wrote: »

anybody any idea when or if RBS and Lloyds are releasing there 2nd quarter financial reports?

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/investors/shareholder_information/financial_calendar.asp

http://www.investors.rbs.com/shareholder_services/events.cfm

tradetime

GE, BoA, and Citi take their turn in the confessional today, I wouldn't expect any nasty surprises from either of the banks as the government holds large stakes in them. GE I have no idea about. We have options expiry today in the US, which usually produces quite a bit of volatility, volumes will be meaningless, and we can probably discount anything that happens today because of the options distortion.

scottburke

tradetime wrote: »

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/investors/shareholder_information/financial_calendar.asp

http://www.investors.rbs.com/shareholder_services/events.cfm

thanks thanks

sabretoothtigger

Just recently watched a video where Marc Faber backed intel prospects. Ive not heard this before and figured I'd post it up considering its been in focus recently
He makes mention of how nasdaq along with emerging markets did not achieve new lows, I think this does add to a more bullish outlook

Faber on the World Economy : February 2009

"The global economy may take as long as 10 years to return to the peak level reached in 2006", Marc told the South China Morning Post.

“The crisis won’t be over anytime soon”. Still, interest-rate cuts may cause a short-term jump for stocks, including a leap of as much as 30 percent in Hong Kong within three months, Marc Faber said.

"But in the second half of the year, stocks will likely dive again because of the slowdown."

"Commodities have a very strong rebound potential” over the next few years, citing silver, platinum and palladium as investments to consider.

Mar Faber said that gold is likely to outperform U.S. stocks over the next five to 10years, and that he is adding to its investments in the metal.

Technology companies, such as Intel Corp., Cisco Systems Inc., Oracle Corp. and Microsoft Corp., also look “quite interesting,” Faber added.

Still, investors shouldn’t have more than 15 percent of assets in equities at the moment.