UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

tonygee_3

Think theres just as many bulls as bears.
In my view this is just a correction,shares simply overshot,and once we hit 4000 ish there will be plenty of takers.
I will be staggered buying on panics because its very difficult to call a bottom,that only becomes apparent after time,infact for all we know THIS could be the bottom
I think though Financials should take a few more % off the indexes

tradetime

Think theres just as many bulls as bears.

That I agree with, may even be more bulls than bears right now, but...........
The bears, are obviously calling foul and predicting the next leg down, nearly all the bulls feel the rally has come too far, needs to correct, so they have been calling for the downside correction, net result, too many people calling downside.

Totally agree with everything else there, only time will resolve those possibilities, and you simply play what you can see. Longer term is only relevant to the investors.

sabretoothtigger

Hyder went ex div and their share price went up but their spread has more then doubled now to over 5%
This confirms to me small cap is weird business. I presume they will adjust downwards at some point
Im told their international business quality is superior to domestic. Water development is one of those infrastructure plays hyped up but it makes sense to me, if this little company can compete theres a big upside

eg
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_water_crisis





Holding a Short or leveraged etf - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mbum2hGUGj4

tonygee_3

tonygee wrote: »

SOLD AVIVA (just to get cash back)
Been quite resilient lately but will follow market down and should hit £2.80ish if FTSE hits 4000


Phew!!! got out in the nick,might hit low £2s currently £2.78
FTSE ends week 4127
See what next week brings
Have a nice weekend all:beer:

sabretoothtigger

Yield over 11%? They are the biggest ftse100 loser, surely even if they do cut the dividend it will be worth buying these soon and before the aug 6th results
No reason for new lows is there

http://english.capital.gr/news.asp?id=773349

tradetime

Markets hung in pretty well through the course of the week, a sloppy H&S has now formed / is forming (still a work in progress) on the Nasdaq which has been the leader of the rally so far, in the western world. Dow and S&P have pretty much completed the pattern save for a definitive breakdown, both indices have tested below the neckline but still remain at that level, retracing just over 25% of the rally. Dax has completed the pattern with a breakdown and has now retraced approx 38% of the rally from the March lows. FTSE which had no discernible, comparable pattern has also retraced about 38% of the rally off the lows. We are very short term oversold, wouldn't be surprised to see a bounce next week, US earnings season is now under way, investors are looking for proof that the 40% run up hill has not been a waste of effort. The coming week sees earnings from Citi, Goldman, Bank of America, and JP Morgan.

sabretoothtigger

Thats alot of big results. These shape indicators are most usefull just when they've fully completed the shape and you have to decide which direction it will take, if we get that then I guess I will bet down.
Like a double top isnt true until it draws the whole of the right leg of the M then we have the confidence indicator to carry on shorting but until then its nothing special

Someone pointed out we had an inverse HS during the week, can get very silly


I think they'll be opportunities to buy a share before ex div and not see the price drop so much. I did that last year before the market crashed, it actually rose upto sept

tradetime

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Thats alot of big results. These shape indicators are most usefull just when they've fully completed the shape and you have to decide which direction it will take, if we get that then I guess I will bet down.
Like a double top isnt true until it draws the whole of the right leg of the M then we have the confidence indicator to carry on shorting but until then its nothing special

Someone pointed out we had an inverse HS during the week, can get very silly


I think they'll be opportunities to buy a share before ex div and not see the price drop so much. I did that last year before the market crashed, it actually rose upto sept

All such technical patterns, indicators, whatever, allow a trader to take trades based on probability, sometimes they work, sometimes they don't, good management protects when they don't and keeps losses small and when they do you make profits. The H&S pattern currently forming came up on Bloomberg the other day, that's not a good sign
I think it's very possible the banks produce "good" results.

We are in the process of carving out a giant inverse H&S which is likely to take several more weeks to complete, assuming it doesn't get violated before that, not sure if that's the one they were referring to

gfplux

I have been lurking here for a while. I am a little intimidated as many of you know a great deal about the markets.
I am not into a lot of action or technical things. I think I read too much and act very little.
I luckily went to mainly cash in June 2007. The percentage I held in cash then has of course risen in the last two years as my remaining holdings visited the WC.
I have sat on my hands for two years now and frankly don't feel like getting into the market yet.
In fact some advisers I know have suggested selling into the recent rally to those that are still fully invested.
The returns for cash are as we all can agree very, very low. However a small plus return is better than any loss.
As my old Dad would say "no one went broke taking a profit"
I would be interested to know what people on this thread think about where the markets will be at the end of this year.

sabretoothtigger

remaining holdings visited the WC.

What did you remain holding, has the price just fallen or has the prospects of each company actually got worse along with their annual reports.

Sometimes the price falling means you would better value on your shares and in fact the company is doing better now then in 2007 and/or will do better



I would estimate this market will be at this level at year end and maybe for years to come, hedge your bets on other markets