UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

tradetime

gfplux wrote: »

I have been lurking here for a while. I am a little intimidated as many of you know a great deal about the markets.

I wouldn't worry about that mate, it's just speculative opinion, your views / opinions are just as valid as anyone else's.

gfplux wrote: »

I am not into a lot of action or technical things. I think I read too much and act very little.
I luckily went to mainly cash in June 2007. The percentage I held in cash then has of course risen in the last two years as my remaining holdings visited the WC.
I have sat on my hands for two years now and frankly don't feel like getting into the market yet.
In fact some advisers I know have suggested selling into the recent rally to those that are still fully invested.
The returns for cash are as we all can agree very, very low. However a small plus return is better than any loss.
As my old Dad would say "no one went broke taking a profit"

At some point in the future we will probably look back on this as a time of great opportunity, but like most great opportunity times in the markets it comes hand in hand with considerable risk. I would be inclined to agree with "some advisers" now is not the best time to be accumulating stocks unless you are a very good fundamental stock picker and can find good value. If you are a long only player I would suggest it might be worth waiting a little longer. Even a short player takes considerable risk with all the money printing going on, unless very short term trading.

gfplux wrote: »

I would be interested to know what people on this thread think about where the markets will be at the end of this year.

TBH, I'd really have no idea, and there are far too many moving parts and as yet unknown variables to even hazard an educated guess that far out. I believe the market is rolling over to print lower prices in the next several weeks, this will allow us to form a right shoulder of a large inverted H&S pattern which has been forming since November last year and may eventually mark the bottom of this bear. If that scenario was to play out, then I might suggest an investor compile a list of stocks s/he was interested in holding and look to begin entry when the FTSE reaches somewhere between 3800 - 3900 as I believe the October lows should hold on this leg. But as stated that is merely speculative opinion, and I am not an investor.

turbobob

Probably worth mentioning for gfplux and others that H&S is a head and shoulders pattern. http://www.chartpatterns.com/headandshoulders.htm gives a good explanation. An inverted head and shoulders would typically be a reversal pattern in a downtrend.

tonygee_3

gfplux wrote: »

I would be interested to know what people on this thread think about where the markets will be at the end of this year.

Thats irrelevant unless youve taken out a specific bet on it

Regards short term FTSE,I was calling for correction at start of MAY(which incidentally was peak for most shares)and expect FTSE to settle midway between recent high and march low, approx 3950.


We should then have a decent rally



However the FTSE will stay within a range as it becomes apparent this is a long drawn out affair


I also warned over commodities hype and these have been the worst performers of late


No doubt this forum will become overrun with doom mongers shortly as FTSE slips

Just broken thru 4100,

[Deleted User]

oh dear, bulls and bears are getting well and truly sucked in. I wonder if any trader out there is making money? Whiplashes galore

I absolutely hope that 4100 holds but if not then it will be time to batten down the hatches for another torrid time. 3600 is not out of the equation but there are too many ifs to call anything for certain

[Deleted User]

don`t forget that the neckline has to break for a h and s pattern to be fulfilled and the projected drop is then the distance between the neckline and top of the head. R shoiulder should be lower than left

tonygee_3

kittie wrote: »

3600 is not out of the equation but there are too many ifs to call anything for certain

calm down kittie,you were bullish last week!!!

simply a natural correction,FTSE simply went up TOO fast
Dont be suckered by the doom mongers that will start popping up

Will be some great bargains soon:beer:

[Deleted User]

yes that is the psychology working. All gloom and doom now so very easy to get sucked in. I am long term bullish re the sipp`s holdings and I think there are great bargains right now but fact remains that 3600 is the bottom of the current channel. 200 day MA is 4197

tonygee_3

Exactly, the big boys will start spinning negativity in the hope small holders sell cheap/at a loss
Look at the way they attacked AVIVA last week

tradetime

kittie wrote: »

don`t forget that the neckline has to break for a h and s pattern to be fulfilled and the projected drop is then the distance between the neckline and top of the head. R shoiulder should be lower than left

Dow and DAX H&S have already completed, projected target for the DAX by my estimation is between 4100 - 4150 and a Dow target of around 7600. I doubt it will be made easy though since the correction has been called all over the media for days now, we'll likely need to shake out weak shorts.

[Deleted User]

well I am hunkered down anyway. All invested and staying that way, just letting the divis roll in and knitting instead. No point hiding behind the settee