UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

amictus

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Can never tell its just I already own tons of miners.

...

Long story short, its in the region and judging short term is very hard. I do have 1640 as a bottom in one view.

OK thanks. Yeah, in the long term $1600 to $1700 as an entry point won't make a huge difference if there is a significant rise or fall.

blinko

I think gold is being driven by fundamentals here, the bottom line is there really isn't much bad news out there at the moment.

Economic figures look pretty, Greece has gone away for now, everything is right with the world. I think at least another 2 - 4 weeks of bull market and then a euro debt hefty drop. Markets take years to climb but seconds to fall

gadgetmind

blinko wrote: »

I think at least another 2 - 4 weeks of bull market and then a euro debt hefty drop. Markets take years to climb but seconds to fall

I know this recovery will be patchy and suffer many notches, but you only need to look at the low gilt yields and high gold price (yes, it's still very high) to know that a lot of money is still sitting on the sidelines. I think that money is already getting nervous, and when it commits, it will commit BIG TIME.

I think we'll see a few solid years of good returns from equities, and gilt yields getting back close to long term trend. I also think this will be pretty much Euro-proof and that it will take big trouble in the US (mega debt!) or China to dent this.

I reckon that the UK has *just* caught its debt in time, but the US ... dunno!

sabretoothtigger

UK is fourth largest holder of USA debt apparently so we are screwed anyway.
If we had any sense we'd be selling but by the sounds of Cam & Obama thats not too likely

1640 still holding as low today for gold so thats three days pretty much but dollar is down today


This is GLD the ETF fund as a trend


http://i.imgur.com/nTvYL.png

ABG dire again today, but ex div in 5 weeks and I will look to add maybe next week unless I read anything out of line over the weekend

high gold price (yes, it's still very high) to know that a lot of money is still sitting on the sidelines. I think that money is already getting nervous, and when it commits, it will commit BIG TIME.

It sure is but I see moneyflow from bonds into gold. I know gold has no yield but both are used for FOREX which is the worlds largest marketplace and apparently only very small percentages of gold are currently used as collateral between countries and it used to be 30 or 40% backing to money.

Any swing in its favour brings us the higher price even when it appears expensive, it benefits from those bond gains comparatively may be one way to look at it.
Bonds are extremely expensive so I guess it could be that somehow explains higher gold long term. Read this guy and his book - https://twitter.com/#!/JamesGRickards

South Korea for example recently started buying gold as a reserve, just a little % but its what drives price I guess and if momentum and pressure is up then up prices go

worldtraveller

....according to Citigroup:

As the FTSE 100 closed tonight at a 2012 high of 5,965.58, Citi predicted the UK market would enjoy ten years of continuous earnings growth and cash rich corporate balance sheets.

This, the bank says, will help fuel mergers and acquisitions as well as a new golden era of generosity for shareholder dividends and share buy-backs. Increased valuations will be driven by earnings going up 6pc a year and dividends increasing 4pc for the next ten years - sending the FTSE 100 beyond its December 1999 bubble of 6,930.

Citi acknowledges its bullish prophecy comes at a time of "misery all around", writing: "Financial crisis. Bank collapse. Bear market. Fiscal austerity. Eurozone on the brink. Double and treble dip recessions...That's the obvious bad news. But history shows that some of the best investment opportunities present themselves when the outlook is grim.... The FTSE could double over the next 10 years."

The Telegraph

Interesting reading, but merely a prophecy and 10 years is a long time, especially when most city economists are unable to succesfully forecast more than a few days ahead. As Commander Shore used to say, "Anything can happen in the next half-hour!"

gadgetmind

worldtraveller wrote: »

Interesting reading, but merely a prophecy and 10 years is a long time, especially when most city economists are unable to succesfully forecast more than a few days ahead. As Commander Shore used to say, "Anything can happen in the next half-hour!"

Stingraaay! Stingray! Ba, da da da daaa da!

I suspect Citigroup are relying on historical data regards most likely outcomes given investment at certain p/e levels.

At current levels of "10 ish" annualised total return of 8-10% over the following decade isn't out of the question. However, one wonders how many of those historical decades started with oil prices, interest rates, and sovereign state leveraging at current levels?

blinko

I wouldn't trust banks at all, banks make money on activity and selling you junk shares, goldman sachs is very good at this.

In the short term the problem is this euro debt. Once we get this out of the way the world economy is in alot better shape, imagine that who would have thought Greece would drag the world economy down ?

Dr_john_4

blinko wrote: »

I wouldn't trust banks at all, banks make money on activity and selling you junk shares, goldman sachs is very good at this.

In the short term the problem is this euro debt. Once we get this out of the way the world economy is in alot better shape, imagine that who would have thought Greece would drag the world economy down ?

Yep, the banks financial advisors are to be regarded as cars salesmen -the only difference is the products they sell.

There are other clouds on the horizon including oil prices, US debt and Chinese slow-down. I think gold is still an interesting investment but am a bit unsure of whether to try and buy physical gold or go for "paper" gold. Anyone here with experience?

sabretoothtigger

Its not dragging the world down, its the politics riding them and the situation that is. They are smaller then USA one state, the drop in the well we can hear just indicates how big the fall is in total - possibly


Capt. Scarlet and those darn spooky mysterions were clearly the best by the way

Dont forget Facebook and the worlds most valuable company Very nice peak possible with such things for GS and friends, utility of them is not so great


Essar risen 40% recently, lovely rebound after being FTSE kicked
Cairn Im still waiting on for similar
Why is KAZ still so cheap!
SKR rose 40% today :laugh:

gadgetmind

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Capt. Scarlet and those darn spooky mysterions were clearly the best by the way

I dunno, us old-timers; Goldman Sachs say "muppets" and all we can think about is puppets!