UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

amictus

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

+1 on reserves to buy with but I think FTSE 5000 (or lower) is a brief spike down only. Its an election year and stock ownership is a big thing in USA.
Its wrong but they do directly influence markets, this system is broken no doubt in my opinion
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Working_Group_on_Financial_Markets

Thought this may be of interest:

http://www.safehaven.com/article/24484/spx-and-2012-elections

Have been tempted by XEL lately... but can't summon the courage!

sabretoothtigger

Thats fine , keep reading and considering their potential. When it seems too cheap I guess thats when you buy.
Sounds like you fear a share price fall but it just matters can they get the oil on current funding plans

You might be better off just buying shell or BP. They give money back!

Uk actually needs companies like Xcite to succeed, we need that oil. I'd like to buy Sea Energy again but its not falling back, they have a share of oil appraisal well in Irish sea plus cash.
HOIL is the cheapest, at cash value I think.

None of these are insolvent, I dont think Xcite is exactly poor but something is causing selling. Future share sales need to be balanced by plannable oil sales


ABG is weaker then I thought maybe. A quick fix to costs of $800 an ounce is for our gold price to rise again, its just stalking 1600 which is still great

it is actually a downgrade on target abd BUY reiteration.

Here's the note from Deutsche:

1Q12 results preview
A slow start in Q1 is unlikely to be a catalyst
African Barrick are due to report their Q1'12 results on Thursday the 19th of
April. We maintain our view that the stock is undervalued, but that the
company has to deliver an improved operational performance on the back of
realistic guidance as a first step to a re-rating. Furthermore, the company's
growth options need to be developed further to start being factored into
valuations. The company had a slow start in Q1, which is unlikely to
demonstrate the latent improvement within the company. Maintain Buy.
Power disruptions still hampered Q1
We forecast Q1 production of 153koz, which is 4% lower than Q4’11, and 12%
lower than Q1’11. The company still struggled with erratic power in the
beginning of the quarter at Buzwagi and Bulyanhulu. Buzwagi now has full
diesel back-up, and Buly is expected to be in the same position by the end of
Q2. The company expects power to be derived in a 30% diesel - 70% grid ratio
on a group basis. We forecast a cash cost of US$821/oz, which is 5% higher
than Q4’11, a function of higher reagent consumption and lower production.
We forecast an earnings decline YoY, despite the higher gold price
We forecast a Q1’12 EBITDA of US$102m, and an EPS of US$0.11/sh, 3% and
13% lower than Q1’11, with lower production and cost inflation outweighing
the higher realized gold price. We still forecast net operating cashflow to be
strong and the company’s net cash position to build modestly by US$6m to
US$590m. Operation improvements, particularly the grades at North Mara
should result in improving financials through the course of the year, although
this is dependent on the mine receiving the necessary disposal permits.
Valuation cut by 10% on lower gold grades
Our 12-month price of £5.60 (down from £6.10) is based on 1.5x our end 2012
NAV. This equates to c.12x 2012F EPS of US$0.72/sh. We believe African
Barrick Gold will continue to trade at a discount to its more established peers,
given the company’s modest visible growth compared to peers and its
chequered operational track record up to now. Our NAV of £3.94/share, is
based on life-of-mine discounted cash flows, using a WACC of 5% (with beta
of 0.3x). Key risks include lower than expected gold prices, higher than
expected costs and an appreciation of the Tanzanian Shilling.

HSBC upgrades Premier Oil from neutral to overweight, target price unchanged at 455p.

Thats a good one to consider instead. 360 is a buy for me, its close

http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/31611/gold-why-bother

amictus

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Thats fine , keep reading and considering their potential. When it seems too cheap I guess thats when you buy.
Sounds like you fear a share price fall but it just matters can they get the oil on current funding plans

You might be better off just buying shell or BP. They give money back!

Yup that sounds about right. I don't have any spare cash to invest right now so I'm very much at the "considering" stage. RDSB was at about 5% yield today, which would have been good to take advantage of!

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

ABG is weaker then I thought maybe. A quick fix to costs of $800 an ounce is for our gold price to rise again, its just stalking 1600 which is still great

General consensus is that it'l reach $2000 by the end of the year. There are arguments for and against... I'm favouring the bullish side but not completely convinced. $1600 would be a good entry point I reckon.

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Thats a good one to consider instead. 360 is a buy for me, its close

Another one to add to my watch list

worldtraveller

More opportunities, IMHO, to get back into commodities this week. General further drifts downward and oil is off around 4-5% today alone. Reality is maybe now coming to the markets that things are nothing like as bright as many thought. I've fed a bit more cash in today, but, as posted before, I still expect further movements south, so still largely holding back.

gadgetmind

worldtraveller wrote: »

Fed a bit more cash in today, but, as posted before, I still expect further movement south.

We've funded our S&S ISAs but I've invested very little so far. With the usual May to September lull. and some inevitable knocks from Europe, I'm going to be patient. For once!

coastline

We've got the 20 and 50 day moving averages pointing down...
I'm thinking the stochastics will hit the bottom range and the RSI will continue its downward path...
So I'm going to guess we're going to take out the 5500 region shortly...lets see...and if growth has been downgraded that won't help...

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?type=chart&display=chart&code=cotn%3AUKX.L&it=li&timeframe=1y&index=&versus=&linetype=line&overlay=SMA_20&overlay2=SMA_50&overlay3=&overlay4=&indicator=slowstoch&indicator2=RSI&indicator3=&indicator4=&chartwidth=500&buylines=on&triggers=on&Go=Plot

worldtraveller

coastline wrote: »

So I'm going to guess we're going to take out the 5500 region shortly...lets see...and if growth has been downgraded that won't help..

In terms of Footsie investing now, I'm not even looking at it when it's above a level of around 5300!

coastline

worldtraveller wrote: »

In terms of Footsie investing now, I'm not even looking at it when it's above a level of around 5300!

Could well get there...all a guessing game....sell in May go away..or March on the chart...been up 20% since last October.
Maybe we need some stats on election years from the states...;)

http://money.usnews.com/money/blogs/On-Retirement/2012/05/01/how-to-play-the-election-year-stock-market

sabretoothtigger

owains wrote: »

Another one to add to my watch list

Looks like we've arrived. PMO was especially unpopular today and on higher volume which makes some research this weekend essential I think to figure out why.
If it doesnt hold this area roughly then 285 is next

Premier Oil PLC (PMO.L)
-LSE Ticker: 43G057 / ISIN: GB00B43G0577

352.10 Down 22.30(5.96%) 16:35

Actually this is largely it probably

to plug and abandon the Stingray exploration well in the UK North Sea after it came up dry. Premier (BSE: PREMIER.BO - news) holds a 50% stake in the well. The next exploration well to be drilled by Premier in the UK North Sea is the Carnaby well on the Catcher acreage, which Premier expects to start drilling towards the end of next week.

Bought Weir and Fresnillo recently then sold at profits and rebought Fres today despite the weakness I will take a chance that silver could rise here. Not a new theory, charts I drew years ago have an uptrend here and Ive regretted being too careful in the past on such things.
Weir is more complicated but Questor like them and I agree. They lost 1700 which puts them over the edge of a larger fall possibly like last Autumn.
20% of its stock has been short sold


I just sold Plexus well head design to buy BG group then today both companies do a deal together!
Natural gas is upto 4x cheaper then oil for the same energy potential, cheap is essential when demand pressure is forcing margins down not up (in value terms)

Could well get there...all a guessing game

Same old dilemna, I think its best to just focus on value and profit potential. Then sell bits here and there when markets booms upwards which gives rainy day money.
I dont like the idea of guessing the entire markets, on average everything is cheap

Maybe we need some stats on election years from the states

Federal Reserve to the rescue!

rockitup

coastline wrote: »

Could well get there...all a guessing game....sell in May go away..or March on the chart...been up 20% since last October.
Maybe we need some stats on election years from the states...;)

http://money.usnews.com/money/blogs/On-Retirement/2012/05/01/how-to-play-the-election-year-stock-market

I have a handy little table with the Dow Jones Performance figures for each year of the Presidential cycle from 1901 until 2009 of anyone is interested. Just pm me if interested but this is in .png format