UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

JonnyBravo

Another good day so far.

Just 8 working days left at the most until EMED have promised to have the AAU submitted
:j
Another 7 working days after that the election campaign starts.
:j

My bet is news before March 9th.
:j:j

JonnyBravo

Yo ho ho.
AAU documents submitted today it seems (local news reports)
EGM called for 12/3/12

:j

:j:j

gadgetmind

gadgetmind wrote: »

Yes, that's why I'm close to 0% gilts. I will increase this (hard to go lower!)

I now appear to be short on long-dated UK gilts!

rockitup

Just had a trade on the VIX index via a Barclays ETN

Sabre can you have a look at your charts on the S & P Volatility Index and just give me your opinion, I have already put a limit order in looking for a circa 60% gain but will watch it carefully. This ETN rolls over each month so I got time to play with on this one, would like to get back some or all of my Tesco losses.

Cheers

sabretoothtigger

Vix is options which I dont do directly. I mostly look at VIX to counter my share cashflow. VIX is low so Iam cautious

Volatility is a bull market is my reckoning, we have the false dynamic of lowest interest rates ever so its very tricky to trade Im sure . Futures are leveraged and so a function of cost of money, this is where the guys with degrees in maths start to excel and I step off




Faber says futures will default and I side with him, the risk is off the scale due to outliers. Shares are actual ownership at least http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eFYSLFjmChQ&feature=player_embedded

I sold 2/3 of BP recently and looking at CNA to go long on a similar scale


Dont trade what you dont believe in. No idea if VXX really holds a trend as it has decay?
I would read this chart as suggesting a break in a downtrend is more probable then previously.
So target 3500, stop loss 2350. Not that I would do this

rockitup

Thanks for your chart & views on the VIX, i had already taken the punt on this one...

I was sure that the VIX will also rise with a decline in the markets, I was watching this during late 2008 when things were turning nasty and again in March 2011 after the Japanese disaster. The trade was only a small part of my portfolio anyway and I had intended to spread bet it.

I will add a stop loss to the position as advised, better safe than sorry,


Thanks Sabre

gadgetmind

rockitup wrote: »

I was sure that the VIX will also rise with a decline in the markets

I understand that some use INX and VIX as negatively correlated assets and rebalance between them, but it's not for me.

sabretoothtigger

This is why I like charts, always much simplier. I think I will sell off the FTSE tracker today.
Its been going nowhere, I got plenty other things to worry about and I might as well draw something from that possible breakout


This is Chicago options traders CBOE discussing it all. Confusing but he says VIX to hit 15, its 18 now ie. bullish market which is probably correct but I will take some cashflow here

http://youtu.be/fDGamNRvRjM?t=3m21s

JonnyBravo

JonnyBravo wrote: »

EMED (blah blah blah)

My bet is news before March 9th.
:j:j

Financing mandate for $175m with Goldman Sachs announced today.
4 days til election kicks off.
Up, up and away.
It's ok you can all thank me later

sabretoothtigger

Yes good volume too. Market is very wobbly here, not sure what next. It could wobble upwards till april then fall, its done that before

My ABG got battered, I started the day in profit and then was stopped out while not looking. Stupid thing, I will be buying again as its practically a dividend stock at this level and they make cash just fine.
2.2% div I think plus it can double with any good gold rise, not expensive.

There is a report comparing Randgold , ABG and Petropavlovsk for value.
ABG290212outlook.pdf
http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.co.uk/?ACT=18&ID=6760
Search for ABG if that dont work


I sold all ABG at 600p, Im just expecting to actually behave itself soon. I will collect that div :mad:


I was regretting not selling EMED first thing but you are right Jonny, it is doing well generally
BP I think Ive had enough, the trial might bring it down quite easily. The settlement is probably a sentiment high.

I bought more emerging bonds today, if we fall more I will get some Asia tracker

If copper keeps falling with a negative market, it could stop EMED gaining any more for now. It needs to have 14.75 as a low tomorrow
We are in the area of a natural top, it can break through and surge up but it needs continued momentum, good vol, all that
higstoric higher vol and potential sell offs at 16 and 18p