UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

lvader

worldtraveller wrote: »

Again, as I expect they will, as posted earlier, IMHO, with further general falls in commodity prices.

Remember to factor in exchange rates, drops in commodity prices due to USD strength won't affect these compnaies. Average commodity prices were mostly up in 2011, even when priced in USD.

worldtraveller

lvader wrote: »

Remember to factor in exchange rates, drops in commodity prices due to USD strength won't affect these compnaies. Average commodity prices were mostly up in 2011, even when priced in USD.

Yes, I agree & accept that the average commodity prices were mostly up in 2011, but that was largely based on the strength in the early months of 2011 and particularly the surge in April, at which point I personally sold up most of my holdings.

The Q2 2011 falls, that I expected, mainly resulted from the eurozone issues, slow U.S. growth and the start of a slowing economy in China.

More recently I also accept that commodity prices have, IMO unexpectedly, improved slightly. However, I personally don't see this happening for much longer, as I expect the same issues to continue, on the whole, over the next few months, at the very least, but particularly the slowdown in China, which I expect to be worse than most analysts are currently predicting.

As always, I guess that only time will tell...:)

lvader

There is still a lot of money around that has to go somewhere, I can't see US government bonds doing well again this year. If China and Europe do badly and commodities drop where will the money flow?

gadgetmind

lvader wrote: »

There is still a lot of money around that has to go somewhere,

Too right! Where is it all? Gilts, gold, and cash?

Global investors seem to have turned into a "thundering herd", so where might they thunder next? I'm now over-weight in global equities, particularly mid/small cap, and Asian Pacific, so let's hope it's in that direction!

However, I'm fairly well diversified, so unless the big boom is in gilts (is there really any more upside to be had?) then I'm well positioned.

sabretoothtigger

Should look at ratios more then anything. Supply vs demand is a ratio. There is more money supply, I think this will likely exceed any drop in demand for commodities and many other things hence the prices will rise.

Ditto for all the housing arguments, price and value are not the same. Housing demand doesnt vary that much, people are going to live somewhere. The bigger change is again in money, so with excess supply of money and flat or even a decline in housing demand means house prices will still rise over a period of years

Thats why I presume mortgage banks will return a profit at some point

We have positive world gdp growth. What has to happen eventually is money follows the growth not the debt and promises of future growth to pay for it. So 1bn people in India or 1bn in China or 1bn for rest of Asia will some day matter more then 300m USA people

DJ MARKET TALK: BofA Merrill Cuts Essar Energy Price Target

1026 GMT [Dow Jones] Bank of America Merrill Lynch cuts Essar Energy (ESSR.LN) target price to 265p from 360p. It comes after the Indian Supreme Court set aside a prior ruling from a lower court which would have allowed Essar to defer payment of sales tax to the Gujarat state through the end of the decade. BofA says the company now faces two issues: it may be forced to pay the outstanding tax benefits in a short time frame. Secondly it will forgo the remaining $585 million of sales tax benefits it was entitled to, which will hit EPS. However BofA keeps a buy recommendation arguing that the risk/reward balance remains favorable. Shares are 9.4% higher at 138p. (michele.maatouk@dowjones.com)

Im just trying to gauge how unstable ESSAR is at the moment. India has disappointed over the last year in general and this particular section of the conglomerate is especially beaten up. 7 PE

Im thinking its fair value but that JII is far less risky to hold. If the Rupee can gain value vs the dollar they will do much better instead of continual oil price rises. Oil & gold is all they import really


blue just highlights a significant price. Holding that area as a low is positive


I sold some VGM on friday. I'll sell much more if or when gold gets to 1720. Sainsbury started doing better at last

Natural gas is back to 2.5 recently on excess supply but energy is not cheap so there should be opportunities here. I sold Cisco and was pondering buying Cheasapeake once again unless there is a better idea? BG isnt cheap

I'd back gas over bonds and dollars any day however saturated the maket appears. Genius Obama just refused to take an oil pipeline from Canada while he tells voters he cant solve a quadruple increase in their petrol costs. This is why nat gas is too cheap, oil wont get cheaper in dollars (over years)



^^n.gas
Also looking at agriculture supply as a good commodity long term. Wish I'd looked at SXX more !

rockitup

Nice weekly chart (lower chart) on Essar Sabretoothtigger, the way it has busted through the bottom trend line looks ominous. I will pull up a daily chart later today.

Looks like 3 waves down, do you think a rebound towards middle trend line and then a 5th wave down to ???

sabretoothtigger

Exactly, its grim but it matches the successive bad news they've had. So its a case of judging if its been oversold or not.

Even this latest 1bn tax ruling isnt fatal because they had to pay this sometime anyway. Can they finance or not, only 30% of the company is public surely the billionaire essar brothers can pull it out of their pockets. Not a fan of Indian politics

145 is top for this recent gain, like you say its pretty broken. The wave thing, I dont do though markets do move in waves of sell/buys. Im just looking for them to form a base to rally from, I hope they can cap the bad news
Fib levels can be fair for figuring out prices with any recovery. 216p would be 50% of the recent big fall then 191 and 159 was the prior Jan low just prior and also would also mark 23% recovery
159 and above deserves some optimism I think

Arcticle of some new discoveries for the group I think
http://businessworld.in/businessworld/businessworld/content/Big-Oil-Play.html


Market very well today and Nat gas prices reverse some. 7% up for CHK. Shame I did not take the plunge, I blame my broker for making it difficult. Still very low

CAD pulls back harshly, to be expected. Again we could look at fib levels to gauge it but its normal profit taking. I could have sold some but
27 as a low now means this share is back on track for gains

ses6jwg

Pretty exciting times for me at the moment, I hold Rockhopper shares at 49p and Gulf Keystone shares at £1.01 - both are getting heavy takeover speculation at the moment.

TDM850

I also hold RKH, noted the grant of director share appreciation rights yesterday too

sabretoothtigger

Argentina continue to make noises I saw.


Just bumping for sake of this latest rally courtesy of the FED stating 0% rates till 2014

I halved my HOC. I see it as reasonable to sell around 525 and I already own tons of gold miners.
1720 was my target for this winter on Gold and it has recovered no doubt with +$80 in last 20 hours

I expect higher but taking profits all the same.
Bought back some VGM and nice to see POG make +10% but over 900 would be nicer

Vid on EMED -
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GPPAgOhIFQM&context=C3ef5ac9ADOEgsToPDskIzt3o83nXgSNs7KvIsIqWx
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EIJzVyoNITU&feature=player_embedded
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T8UFcbrCFCY&context=C315fe88ADOEgsToPDskI0m5XN1t-VVksYzrm5FQAB
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8wjipCwWOiw&context=C39169ffADOEgsToPDskLhoOkltxmwUlLpegmw8n83