UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

ess0two

Just sent you a PM @ tigger

worldtraveller

worldtraveller wrote: »

Yes, I agree & accept that the average commodity prices were mostly up in 2011, but that was largely based on the strength in the early months of 2011 and particularly the surge in April, at which point I personally sold up most of my holdings.

The Q2 2011 falls, that I expected, mainly resulted from the eurozone issues, slow U.S. growth and the start of a slowing economy in China.

More recently I also accept that commodity prices have, IMO unexpectedly, improved slightly. However, I personally don't see this happening for much longer, as I expect the same issues to continue, on the whole, over the next few months, at the very least, but particularly the slowdown in China, which I expect to be worse than most analysts are currently predicting.

As always, I guess that only time will tell...:)

After yesterdays lower China growth target I'm expecting that we will continue to see a marked downward trend, pulling commodity prices back further, to a point where it's maybe worth reinvesting more heavily again. The boom over the last ten years or so in China is now running out of steam and the massive demand for commodities, due to the huge growth in housing & infrastructure, is likely to slow much further from where it has been more recently.

sabretoothtigger

I dont invest in China, dont like it especially but obviously its a strong influence. Im just interested in Asia growth mostly so long as its going up in general which I think it will.

My first thought is this is a buyable pullback. I'll add a couple things as they come back, ABG already under where I mistakenly sold it so I dont mind this really.
I sold the BP, the FTSE tracker for just such an occurrence so no biggie (yet)

Ess0two - sent very my rough opinion, not heard of that one.

Euro down, something about Greece yet again. This time its a trillion, *yawn*


Already cheap shares? HOIL - nobody loves gas, looking for others like that hopefully

JamesU

Big drop in CEY today....."Egypt-focused miner Centamin said it has temporarily halted operations at its flagship Sukari gold mine due to "illegal labour unrest", sending its shares down over 12 percent on Tuesday...."
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/03/06/centamin-strike-idUKL5E8E62IS20120306



JamesU

sabretoothtigger

Owch, I think they rank as one of the cheapest major gold mines in the world in more normal times
8 PE it shows as but they were increasing production still. I think they have a policy of taking care of their employees as a priority but apparently its not enough


Spotted KAZ as too cheap, no good reason? I sold at 1088 so I'll buy back a bit I think instead of anything else I bought recently. 6 PE :think:


Possible SP500 uptrend line here, I have a short which I wont close hence buys ^^


Copper losing almost everything its gained in last month. not actually sure of longer term but Kaz isnt just copper, about 40% of the company worth is ENRC I think

JamesU

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Spotted KAZ as too cheap, no good reason? I sold at 1088 so I'll buy back a bit I think instead of anything else I bought recently. 6 PE :think:

Nothing at KAZ that I have read about recently. Very good KAZ rally pre-Xmas to end Jan, followed by retreat of miners generally through Feb. But up to mid last year 80-90% of KAZ copper output was contracted out and they were on target to meet full year targets, so cannot see why the recent sharp falls are company specific. More likely continued negative analyst sentiment towards miners on higher costs and potential weaker demand. But with KAZ some time before major growth projects come on line also, e.g. 30% increased copper production at Bozshakol, but not until 2015.

http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/2011/09/05/shares/news-and-analysis/production-falls-at-kazakhmys-08jDv76HO0wvhVaetqhBhI/article.html;jsessionid=36822FACE85E3FA22694ECBFC2657EFA.mps-apr-01-8104

Looks to me like KAZ downtrend could continue from 924 to 850 before any resistance though? (and Nov/Oct lows of 800/750).




Edit: KAZ owns about 25% ENRC up until 2010 reporting
http://www.kazakhmys.com/en/investors_media/company_overview

JamesU

lvader

It doesn't look that much different from the BHP chart I was looking at today. I bought.

sabretoothtigger

Decided to buy Kaz again, is copper at a top here though. I think BHP is alot less risky then KAZ but they both produce power and raw metal, which not all miners do also gold

VIX lowest prices as market has no worries - ominous!



calm before the storm imo 14.8 -

gadgetmind

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

VIX lowest prices as market has no worries - ominous!

Yes, I tend to keep an eye on the FTSE and S&P VIX.

What's interesting is that the last time prices were this high, p/e's were much higher and VIX too. If you go right back to pre crunchy credit, the same was true.

Dunno what it really means, but I choose to take it as an encouraging sign.

sabretoothtigger

Yea PE does not seem high. I think inflation explains inaccurate prices.
The EPI or some privately made index says 8% inflation in USA which is probably right if you include the stuff people actually use like fuel

I will stick with commodities

PRECIOUS METALS: Gold Slumps As QE Hopes Fade
--Comex April gold down 3% at $1,643.20/oz

--Fed's upbeat outlook Tuesday dashes hopes of monetary stimulus

--Gold pressured by bearish technical signal as prices slip below 200-day moving average


By Tatyana Shumsky
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Gold futures fell 3% Wednesday, building on the previous day's losses as traders continued to digest the Federal Reserve's brighter economic outlook.

The most actively traded contract, for April delivery, was recently down $51, or 3%, at $1,643.20 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The Fed's policy setting statement Tuesday continued to make waves, as hopes of further monetary stimulus dimmed in the face of the bank's upbeat comments about the U.S. labor market.

"The statement had clearly a positive tone regarding the economy, triggering another heavy round of sales of gold, which rapidly fell onto the defensive," said James Steel, precious metals analyst with HSBC Securities (USA) Inc., in a note.

Gold prices had roared higher during the Fed's second quantitative easing program, as the metal is considered a store of value and a hedge against the falling value of paper currencies. Moreover, hopes of a third round of so-called QE had stoked investor interest in the yellow metal in recent months.

While gold prices gold prices are swiftly shedding any premium ascribed to the likelihood of a third round of monetary stimulus, they "may be nearing price levels that will encourage emerging-market demand, which should help stabilize prices," said HSBC's Steel.

TD Securities said that gold futures faced additional selling pressure from technical indicators. "Gold is now back below the 200 day moving average support level of $1682.00 and looks increasingly more likely to take a look at the $1600.00 level," it said.

A move below the 200-day moving average is considered bearish for the market, and often signals a shift in price trends, further pressuring gold prices lower.

A stronger dollar, which gained against the euro, also weighed on gold. The euro was recently trading at $1.3062, down from $1.3083 late Tuesday in New York.

Prices of dollar-denominated gold futures tend to fall as the U.S. dollar strengthens against other currencies because the contracts appear more expensive for foreign investors, damping their interest in the precious metal.

-By Tatyana Shumsky, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-3095; tatyana.shumsky@dowjones.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 14, 2012 09:40 ET (13:40 GMT)

1720 has been a fair price in 2012, still think far higher prices are well in order eventually. Like double but who the heck can afford such an expensive metal, central banks apparently? I hope so
Have to try and estimate a bottom I guess but theres nothing wrong with gold imo


The reason for being bullish despite FED is that the gravity of the debt and interest rates and inflation supports higher gold prices and just generally loose money cannot be ended like Ben B has the reins tight.

Its a slippery slope to put it colloquially, I dont see the FED as being able to force control on markets or globally.
I know they are the reserve but it doesnt make sense for the world to just submit itself to their own detriment, dollar is the weakest link in the chain

Thats my rough logic, Im not bearish gold but trade wise its probably lower now