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UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond
Comments
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worldtraveller wrote: »
And I'll take advantage of the resulting dips to buy low. I'm hoping we'll see sub 5000 soon, and sub 4000 would be nice.The extended economic and financial crisis of the last four years means shareholdings are no greater in cash terms than in May 2006,
Mine are!For the first time since May 2007, investors sold all sectors in net terms.
Warning: this bath water may contain babies.I am not a financial adviser and neither do I play one on television. I might occasionally give bad advice but at least it's free.
Like all religions, the Faith of the Invisible Pink Unicorns is based upon both logic and faith. We have faith that they are pink; we logically know that they are invisible because we can't see them.0 -
I'm still deciding whether next year's ISA allocation should all be in TMPL, all in RICA, or a combination of the two.
[Edit] By which I mean the 2012/13 tax year..Living for tomorrow might mean that you survive the day after.
It is always different this time. The only thing that is the same is the outcome.
Portfolios are like personalities - one that is balanced is usually preferable.
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worldtraveller wrote: »In the past three months investors sold £695m of their investments as trading hits six-year low.
Private investors have turned their backs against equities for the first time since early 2010.
The last quarter’s selling has been the most aggressive since September 2009. According to Capita Registrars, private investors hold around £213bn of equities, a loss of £24bn since their holdings peaked in May at £237bn. The extended economic and financial crisis of the last four years means shareholdings are no greater in cash terms than in May 2006, it said.
Charles Cryer, chief executive of Capita Registrars, said: “Investors are clearly getting worried – they have taken advantage of the FTSE’s recovery from its summer lows to sell shares for the first time since mid 2010."
For the first time since May 2007, investors sold all sectors in net terms. There was also much less two-way trading than usual. As a result, the total amount traded was the lowest since Capita Registrars began its research six years ago, at just £695m, half the average quarterly total.
Telegraph
Err Have I missed something? The FTSE is down about 10% since May and private investors hold some 10% less value in equities since then. Perhaps there is a connection???0 -
Ark_Welder wrote: »I'm still deciding whether next year's ISA allocation should all be in TMPL, all in RICA, or a combination of the two.
[Edit] By which I mean the 2012/13 tax year..
Please let me know what you decide.
I'll only be doing one of our ISAs in April as we need to hold back all of our CGT for "goings on" in Oct 2012, and I usually use disposals made for gains management to fund the ISAs.
I'm considering either, 1) capital preservation ITs, 2) income and growth ITs, 3) a portfolio of trackers and bonds as per my recent SIPP.I am not a financial adviser and neither do I play one on television. I might occasionally give bad advice but at least it's free.
Like all religions, the Faith of the Invisible Pink Unicorns is based upon both logic and faith. We have faith that they are pink; we logically know that they are invisible because we can't see them.0 -
Does anyone here hold the Ishares £ corporate bond (SLXX)? Looks quite steady even when the market crashed and currently yielding 5.67%
Have you also looked at ISXF? Might suit those who have a serious aversion to the financials.I am not a financial adviser and neither do I play one on television. I might occasionally give bad advice but at least it's free.
Like all religions, the Faith of the Invisible Pink Unicorns is based upon both logic and faith. We have faith that they are pink; we logically know that they are invisible because we can't see them.0 -
gadgetmind wrote: »Please let me know what you decide.
I'll only be doing one of our ISAs in April as we need to hold back all of our CGT for "goings on" in Oct 2012, and I usually use disposals made for gains management to fund the ISAs.
I'm considering either, 1) capital preservation ITs, 2) income and growth ITs, 3) a portfolio of trackers and bonds as per my recent SIPP.
I've just realised that TMPL's final dividend is due at the end or March, and as both this and RICA are in an 'income for the future' pool (so re-invested dividends) then it will end up being both. I'll probably be favouring RICA though, which is partially due to the existing size of the holding in TMPL. But because 3 months is several investment lifetimes (;)) I'll probably have changed my mind by then!Living for tomorrow might mean that you survive the day after.
It is always different this time. The only thing that is the same is the outcome.
Portfolios are like personalities - one that is balanced is usually preferable.
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gadgetmind wrote: »Have you also looked at ISXF? Might suit those who have a serious aversion to the financials.
Nice, I bought ISF or FTSE tracker on the March Tsnumami low and its still underwater. Something 'smarter' like that would have worked out +7% vs -5% for ISF
Got this unusual tip today.
My take for 2012 is stocks are in a bear market, commodities are a bull market, western currency bear market (which is what will make stock price go up inversely but bonds are tied to go down with currency!) and also Volatility is a bull market
Vix is price of options, its a cost that rises with uncertainity
[QUOTE=
Buy the VIX says John Piper of John Piper's Trading]
The chart below shows two of the trades recommended by JohnPipersTrading in 2010.
I will start with the VIX and set out below a chart from Yahoo Finance (the symbol is ^VIX) . The VIX is an index of volatility based on the S&P 500 and you will see from the chart below that it fluctuates between 0 and 100 although it rarely reaches those extremes.
I get interested in buying the VIX when it is below 20 and we did exactly that in May 2010 selling out in August and September by which time we had a profit of 115%! The vehicle we used to trade the VIX at that time was the Exchange Traded Fund (ETF).
Although the VIX will always move up at some point in the future it is not good enough to simply buy it below 20 - you also need to expect increased volatility ahead. The point being that the ETF and futures tend to fall back if the VIX goes sideways for any length of time and it can do that in spades.
In 2010 this trade worked out well for us as volatility came in within a few months of us getting on board. I believe that next year will bring increased volatility and the difficulty, as ever, is time.
Rallies tend to be less volatile and the VIX tends to fall back.
Wave patterns remain somewhat confused right now and the surprise may be a decent rally into the start of 2012. [/QUOTE]
This is only 3 years, not enough data but this is the case for bear market in stocks by comparing to gold. Could also try measuring FTSE in Yen or Swiss to show similar longterm decline
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I think the old Warren Buffett saying comes to mind here. Be fearful when others are greedy...when others are fearful be greedy. I'd say on balance that the amount of fear doing the rounds at present provide a solid case for those of this mindset. The general consensus at among the Traders Own community seems to be to enjoy Christmas and the New Year! Provided that the Euro still exists, the ECB makes further cheap money available in 2012 and that Merkel, Sarkozy et al continue to work toward a permanent solution, (not another fudge) then at least we should see a period of extended stability for the markets rather than the white knuckle ride that made up Q3/Q4 2011.0
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when others are fearful be greedy.
I was a very greedy boy in 2011, particularly during August and September, so I really hope you're right!
Not only did I move already invested pots away from cash and gilts and into equities, but I moved money from cash accounts and dug deep into income.
Genius or fool; only time will tell.I am not a financial adviser and neither do I play one on television. I might occasionally give bad advice but at least it's free.
Like all religions, the Faith of the Invisible Pink Unicorns is based upon both logic and faith. We have faith that they are pink; we logically know that they are invisible because we can't see them.0 -
There is a pleasure in the pathless woods, There is a rapture on the lonely shore, There is society, where none intrudes, By the deep sea, and music in its roar: I love not man the less, but Nature more...0
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