UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

worldtraveller

I've pulled about 50% of my exposure to China in the past 3-4 months and reinvested those funds in Latin America, more heavily into Brazil. IMHO I see Brazil as a better medium term bet than China now. I agree that European exposure is like walking on eggs, but have drip fed a bit more into that market in the current downturn over the past few months, largely as a medium-long term view. As for Japan, I haven't moved yet, but I probably will very soon, depending on what happens in China (a major export market for Japan), and have a punt. How much longer can you have such a long term downturn on the Nikkei before a large rise north and take advantage? As for commodities, I sold up around 80% into cash just before the Q2 major pullback and I'm still not comfortable about getting back in, slowly, until maybe another overall fall back of around 10-15%, which I expect over the next few months.

gadgetmind

worldtraveller wrote: »

How much longer can you have such a long term downturn on the Nikkei before a large rise north and take advantage?

Two decades and counting so far. Don't get me wrong, I love the Japanese, and have visited the country dozens of times over the years, mainly because I was the only non-Japanese director on the board of a company for the best part of a decade.

Any move towards the pacific region decoupling from the west would really benefit Japan, but I still see no good reason to over-weight beyond my investments in Ruffer.

worldtraveller

gadgetmind wrote: »

Two decades and counting so far. Don't get me wrong, I love the Japanese, and have visited the country dozens of times over the years, mainly because I was the only non-Japanese director on the board of a company for the best part of a decade.

Any move towards the pacific region decoupling from the west would really benefit Japan, but I still see no good reason to over-weight beyond my investments in Ruffer.

Agreed gadget, but I'm currently thinking more about a relatively small exposure short term and (hopefully?) making a good return and then pulling back again. I guess, as always, time will tell.

sabretoothtigger

I always thought he was saying Angel
George is too into politics, the answer should be simple. Economics and market flows should not exceed the complexity of supermarket prices because an economy is about people

Ultimately that simplicity makes gold a good bet as a growing prospect,
Swiss were the last currency in the world to leave a gold standard a decade back and yet today they are printing money to keep a link with Euros.
Contrarians should getting out the marker pen and putting a big tick on such ideas as the world has turned upside down, it will right itself sometime



The present fear rocking us is overplayed because Germany was trying to sell bonds below 2%
Well 2% is a crap interest rate, would you want that. Apparently neither do bond holders
USA will be the next shock scenario as it must also pay more which would be the first time in 30 years pretty much.


BEM turned up on friday. On balance volume says there was enough trades to believe its turned a corner now.
My own chart says its likely broken the downtrend just by holding its ground more or less.
Not sure if there is any news or reason for it to go straight back up but I may take a further interest beyond the very small one I have

1 key point I heard was they have not yet found the ends of the seam, lots of possible improvement to JORC resource is my rough understanding?


Japan is like alot of places, I think its solution or resolution will be ironic ,unintended and will stem from their debts failing. Ultimately they have population problems, that wont change.
Even so I think their productive companies are good value and expandable via foreign workforces and markets not reliant on Japan.

Same for UK I look for a company that can work globally. Over 50% of Hyder profits are from Australia apparently

gadgetmind

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

The present fear rocking us is overplayed because Germany was trying to sell bonds below 2%

Quite so. "Hey, look at us, safe haven, give us your money at a !!!!!! rate!", to which Mr Market says, "Nice try, but no sale."

Just a few bp more and 10x as many would have been snapped up.

sabretoothtigger

Was quite pleased to hear this guy recommend Telefonica corporate bonds as oversold vs the idea of buying government debt. For similar reasons to myself in that they have a good basis of strength outside of Spains problems http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u_-BzooT01w&feature=g-u

I bought them in the Feb 2010 selloff which unfortunately was not a one off !
Lucky they pay a good div as they havent risen, same for the ftse tracker I bought in the Japan tsunami dip this year, struggling to make any headway and today markets are suffering badly again

FTSE is below 10 PE I think, I dont think its overvalued or a bad idea to own it long term.

Markets are seriously attempting to reverse back down again right now, see if it can hold Dow 12000 as a sign




Recent lucky buys Ive thought about selling are Petra Diamonds which rose 40% though its already peaked for now
Diamonds as a market are not finished, its counter intuitive but rich people as a global market are not lacking. I think its cheap

Also got Euro goldfields which is a greek gold mine funded by Qatar. Some bid approachs means it rose 25% just after I got it.
Debating selling most of it just to balance out overall bad market performance but Im not sure thats the best strategy really

Taking profits is important at some point though, I see markets going sideways for years though inflation may raise prices.
Hopefully xmas low volume will mean more extreme worries delayed till 2012

Over 1 year biggest movers up I see as Telecom plus, Plexus, Drax power and Tate sugar. Performance above budgeted expectations is the common theme I think

movers down I have as Vatukoula , Petropavlovsk, Lloyds, Vedanta and Kazakhmys.
Lloyds is obvious with a big PFI mark down, the others failed to make enough profits to justify their debt? In general I think the 'losers' are able to improve and are cheap but maybe Im kidding myself

VED yields 3% with a forecast PE of 3.4 by 2013:eek: FT calls its a test of faith!
http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2011/12/05/cairn-vedanta-a-test-of-faith/#axzz1fyXxKO5x
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/3/2e951062-1f3b-11e1-ab49-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1fyYNnaYQ

Finance costs hit Vedanta earnings
By Mark Robinson, 14 November 2011

Vedanta Resources , the India-focused metals and energy group, turned in a mixed bag at the half-year stage as revenues surged strongly but earnings were squeezed by various factors.

The marked improvement in Vedanta's revenue stream was underpinned by improved prices across the majority of the group's mining operations, which helped boost free cash flow by 67 per cent to $746m (£469m).

http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/2011/11/14/shares/news-and-analysis/finance-costs-hit-vedanta-earnings-UoZx8x0NPKqIODJNKdvLTJ/article.html;jsessionid=990AFCB0C9DB55BB7DAA3C0D5A98B8B3.mps-apr-01-8104

gadgetmind

Does anyone here do bonds, prefs or PIBS? Too boring and only for old farts like me?

ses6jwg

Does anyone here hold the Ishares £ corporate bond (SLXX)? Looks quite steady even when the market crashed and currently yielding 5.67%

sabretoothtigger

Some more details here - http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/hl?s=SLXX.L

I've not heard of it before, I only hold a foreign bond fund in my sipp and that is about flat including income. SLXX rose 7% this year which sounds good, might have been a good idea a year ago if anticipating all these troubles but I dont know about now

In sterling terms especially I still favour the falling value of currency and higher inflation making shares a better bet. I always like companies with strong foreign earnings
How much can a 6% bond be worth if inflation were consistently at 5% or above, surely that matters

The prefs do sound good but if I had any, I'd want to sell them before the shares in any profit taking or rebalancing. I think they are more time limited. My bonds are not in sterling so I will keep them for years



Here is Questor talking about Greek gold prospects - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/questor/8941270/Questor-share-tip-Undervalued-European-Goldfields-shines-again.html Listed in Canada they did well again today which is a nice contrast to gold falling 2%

However he did back Thomas Cook also and that remains to be seen so employ your own brain power always of course

worldtraveller

In the past three months investors sold £695m of their investments as trading hits six-year low.

Private investors have turned their backs against equities for the first time since early 2010.

The last quarter’s selling has been the most aggressive since September 2009. According to Capita Registrars, private investors hold around £213bn of equities, a loss of £24bn since their holdings peaked in May at £237bn. The extended economic and financial crisis of the last four years means shareholdings are no greater in cash terms than in May 2006, it said.

Charles Cryer, chief executive of Capita Registrars, said: “Investors are clearly getting worried – they have taken advantage of the FTSE’s recovery from its summer lows to sell shares for the first time since mid 2010."

For the first time since May 2007, investors sold all sectors in net terms. There was also much less two-way trading than usual. As a result, the total amount traded was the lowest since Capita Registrars began its research six years ago, at just £695m, half the average quarterly total.

Telegraph