UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

sabretoothtigger

turbobob wrote: »

Pretty impressive short covering rally happening today.

Very much so. I was just noticing that SPY or SP500 is slightly above its 5 day average price (ie. a trading week)

In asia, Japan reached a big support level so I was looking for a bounce. Overall I still assume we continue down some more but I made sure to have some more neptune fund for today anyway


Bit of a crossroads


Disappointing USA industry data means a weaker US Dollar. Euro continues to recover against the dollar, looks set to continue

StevieJ

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Very much so. I was just noticing that SPY or SP500 is slightly above its 5 day average price (ie. a trading week)

In asia, Japan reached a big support level so I was looking for a bounce. Overall I still assume we continue down some more but I made sure to have some more neptune fund for today anyway


Bit of a crossroads


Disappointing USA industry data means a weaker US Dollar. Euro continues to recover against the dollar, looks set to continue

What does that mean?

sabretoothtigger

I think bob owns this fund, its turning around at the moment - Neptune Japan Opportunities

http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/snapshot/snapshot.aspx?id=F0GBR04GM7


Price for this generally relys on Nikkei and also the manager is shorting Yen and long Sterling which is very unusual

I dont really think its the bottom exactly but all the same its a reasonable place to buy some and longer term I think it will be higher so thats why I have it

Neptune


Sterling Yen sideways for 5 days - It should accelerate up or down from here I expect. Its a spring loaded situation Im guessing
http://img202.imageshack.us/img202/228/w4112346.png


Nikkei again its sideways. The reason being its at support. Its the same place now as it was Nov 09 July May and Dec 08.
http://img683.imageshack.us/img683/5243/w4335512.png
Obviously it could just be a rubbish market thats the obvious conclusion, in practise its better value then most markets and very unpopular internationally.

Some of the best recent stocks in this fall have been the stocks that were already the worst performers so thats my general premise. Such as EMG and LCG both mentioned here have gone up not down.

Other stocks I would place in the same way would be BG group which has done poorly over the last year, good fundamentals it seems.
GSK maybe but I dont know it really

HSBC recently has had some good stories. Buying out RBS on the cheap in asia and also today maybe acquiring some goods from failed irish banks also appears to be good judgement on their part for future group growth so I look at them more favourably.

They are one of the more secure banks but they own HFC I think and have USA debt exposure

Unfortunately I tend to buy to pay most attention to the worst stocks, not always wise


Sorry for the long post again, I use these forum posts as a kind of ledger or its easy to just forget afterwards why exactly didnt I buy that awesome stock

Just noticed EMG fell down again, not sure why exactly. Either buyers made a mistake or its a good second chance to take in a very uncertain market. They go ex div in 2 weeks and are near support now I think








Worst & best FTSE stocks over 1 yr - could be considered a value check?

http://www.investorresearch.mdgms.com/tools/heat_maps.html?INDEX=1918069&SECTOR=&DPCATEGORY=SP&SPPLOT=W52&CBPLOT=CAP&DDPLOT=BUY%3A1MONTH&ORDERBY=TOP

turbobob

EMG went ex div on 30/06 - the final dividend is 17p per share. Think Wall Street just snuffed out our rally...

StevieJ

turbobob wrote: »

EMG went ex div on 30/06 - the final dividend is 17p per share. Think Wall Street just snuffed out our rally...

Heading up again

lvader

Another nice boost today. :beer:

lvader

The only way is up, baby...

http://www.businessinsider.com/uber-bull-barton-biggs-throws-in-the-towel-slashes-stock-holdings-2010-7

Who sells at the bottom? classic newby error!

sabretoothtigger

“I sold stocks pretty aggressively in the U.S., and we had a lot in tech,” Biggs said, referring to this week. “I’ve taken basically all of it out in the U.S., and we had a broader exposure to consumer stocks

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/uber-bull-barton-biggs-throws-in-the-towel-slashes-stock-holdings-2010-7#ixzz0t7mSlse2

He puts consumer in with tech which is quite worrying. The difference to me is tech can be exported and consumer or retail is more local.

I see his point of view and he isnt selling at the bottom as these guys have been investing for years - not a 'noob' :laugh:, tech was up 100% at the top I think.
Not sure about double dip but I doubt usa will bounce up any time soon economically

EMG went ex div on 30/06

That'd explain it then, my bad. Still looking good then




108.5 is resistance above but Dollar continues down on the same track for a while now. Next monday is start of earnings season with Alcoa and 23rd of July is European bank stress test results apparently
I dont count what we had as much a correction, more ahead?


I like this bounce, hoping to rebalance a few things and Ive offloaded a few small long term positions some of which are near their highs, like Centrica who found some gas luckily, cashed them to justify BG which is cheaper?



Cairn are doing well, India has uncapped oil price controls apparently as the country progresses out of nationalism. Along with inflation, growth elsewhere world gdp demand will force factors into play rather then usa talking heads

worldtraveller

Equity funds worldwide suffered more than $11 billion of net outflows in the first week of July, while money market funds saw the biggest inflows in 18 months amid fears of a double-dip recession, EPFR Global said on Friday.

Money market funds, an equivalent of cash for many investors, had inflows of $33.5 billion, while equity funds saw $11.25 billion move out of the door, fund tracker EPFR said in a statement.

Bond funds in aggregate absorbed another $3.64 billion for the week ended July 7 and global emerging markets equity funds took in $517 million.

Investors have become increasingly concerned about faltering economic growth after a rash of weaker than expected data. Last week, a report showed U.S. employers cut far more jobs than expected in June and the unemployment rate hit 9.5 percent -- the highest in nearly 26 years.

Double dip is a term that refers to a recession followed by a short-lived recovery. The World Bank said in June that a double-dip recession could not be ruled out in some countries if investors lose faith in efforts in Europe and elsewhere to tackle rising debt levels.

'Worse than expected U.S. labor and housing market data and fear of what stress tests of major European banks will reveal continued to weigh on sentiment toward the major developed market and the funds that invest in them during the first week of July,' EPFR said.

EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES

Investors regained some confidence in the fund group in the latest week, sending fresh money to Asia.

Global emerging market equity funds saw $517 million in inflows and Asia ex-Japan equity funds absorbed $124 million.

Europe, Middle East & Africa funds and Latin America focused funds had outflows, suggesting willingness to take risks is still tentative.

Latin America posted its 13th consecutive week of outflows, driven by fears of a knock-on effect if the U.S. economy slows significantly.

DEVELOPED MARKET EQUITIES

Funds investing in the United States, the European Union's biggest export market had a rough week, with overall redemptions from U.S. Equity Funds exceeding $10 billion for only the second time this year.

Japan equity funds also posted outflows, their seventh in the past nine weeks, as a dip in domestic capital spending, questions about the effect of the yen's appreciation on Japan's exports and uncertainty about economic policy made investors cautious.

SECTOR FUNDS

The lure of gold and precious metals as a hedge against uncertainty helped commodity funds top the list of EPFR Global-tracked sector funds once again in early July, with investors committing $419 million to this fund group, taking year-to-date inflows past the $11 billion mark.

The consumer goods sector funds were the second biggest absorbers of fresh money, pulling in $226 million.

FIXED INCOME FUNDS:

Emerging market bond funds continued to soak up fresh money, despite waves of risk aversion.

In the latest week, the fund group saw $740 million in inflows.

Investors pulled $113 million out of high yield bond funds. U.S. bond funds attracted over $2.3 billion for the week, with funds investing in short-term and municipal debt posting the biggest inflows.

Global bond funds took in a net $631 million as brisk demand for recent European sovereign issues alleviated concerns about their generally heavy exposure to this region.

Fidelity International

lvader

worldtraveller wrote: »

Equity funds worldwide suffered more than $11 billion of net outflows in the first week of July, while money market funds saw the biggest inflows in 18 months amid fears of a double-dip recession, EPFR Global said on Friday.

Money market funds, an equivalent of cash for many investors, had inflows of $33.5 billion, while equity funds saw $11.25 billion move out of the door, fund tracker EPFR said in a statement.

Bond funds in aggregate absorbed another $3.64 billion for the week ended July 7 and global emerging markets equity funds took in $517 million.

Very odd that their week ends on a Wednesday, but I can't help think that even it does they must have been looking at data from the week before. As very often occurs, news articles are already out of date by the time they get published.