UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

sabretoothtigger

Well suffice to say the Euro did not breakout upwards, it failed. All the same this is suddenly negative but should not be a big surprise as its just another repeat, more of the same

BNC lost 6% today, sounds alot but it gained quite alot recently also so its just reseting. Im unsure myself how liquid Santander is, I just think they have reasonable assets for this price so in theory should be able to secure funding to continue making profits

fairtrade wrote: »

..and the European Central Bank wants its loans repaid by Thursday.:eek:

ECB http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/aea96aa6-82e2-11df-b7ad-00144feabdc0.html


I bought back some Lloy today, also BG which has some support and if you check the graph its barely risen in 1 yr anyway so what is there to lose
Also CEY I think has reasonable potential so added some there. It did close below the 5 day average
POG was looking like it could fall and it did, still rising overall though it seems.

Almost got GKP but realised the chart looks very similar to HDY. A descending triangle or lower highs with a flat base.

The support will fail and the price falls a fair amount if that plays out the same, that'd fit with the funding they need most likely


New year low for FTSE and a close below support I think. It doesnt have to fail and fall but it has become more likely.
No doubt it'll surprise with a rally before then

worldtraveller

cloud_dog wrote: »

I started light selling in to the recent top and am now looking to significantly reduce my exposure to stocks (have reduced another 20% today). Will retain some exposure to my favoured PM stocks (but will have reduced them shortly).

As posted earlier this month, I'm still holding back on starting to drip feed any further funds back from cash into equities until we get to a FTSE level of around 4.6K. It may take a few days, weeks, months..., I'm in no rush, but IMHO we will see that, and quite likely below, in the short-medium term.

turbobob

Feels like the market is teetering on the edge of a cliff (again). Significant move today, and according to Bloomberg the volume was up in the US. Here I think the volume is showing as about average, which contrasts with the very bearish days in May, where volume increased to 2-3 times its average on some days.

My hunch that the market would be range bound was based on the possibility of the FTSE moving aimlessly between the two expanding trendlines (a broadening top or megaphone top pattern) for a while, probably somewhere between 5400 and 4900. With what's happened today, I think now a decisive break below May's low, and through the lower trendline could see significant falls.



One interesting thing was BP seemed to be one of the better performers today (as it fell a lot less than most shares). Could be that it's stamping out a bottom at around 300p? We'll see.

fairtrade

It seems the Administration and the Market haven't learnt the lessons from history.

“The doctrine of regulation and legislation by “master minds,” in whose judgment and will all the people may gladly and quietly acquiesce, has been too glaringly apparent at Washington during these last ten years. Were it possible to find “master minds” so unselfish, so willing to decide unhesitatingly against their own personal interests or private prejudices, men almost godlike in their ability to hold the scales of justice with an even hand, such a government might be to the interests of the country; but there are none such on our political horizon, and we cannot expect a complete reversal of all the teachings of history.”
Franklin Delano Roosevelt,1930.

StevieJ

Shell took another hammering today (agin) - 4% (£15.61), can only put it down to cost cap being lifted in the Gulf, ironically BP is up.
Strangely enough there was a cameo on Bloomberg showing gas breakeven to be about £2.7 and with prices at £4.6 that is a 70% mark up.
Anyone know of any other reason for the price collapse apart from the general malaise?

sabretoothtigger

Just reading some article - http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/07/01/276666/shells-vulcan-mind-meld-returns/

(this site will let you put in a string of symbols if you like and email you daily headline stories on each)

29/07/10 10:00 Results second quarter Q2 2010 Results


http://www.investorresearch.mdgms.com/factsheet/factsheet.html?ID_NOTATION=12556703



Forecast earnings for shell may fall for various reasons but long term they are good I think





Overall Shell falling fits with the general failure of investment optimism we have right now. Its overshooting I think but thats just my opinion.
Strangely Euro is rising on nicer euro bank borrowing or something so we have a short squeeze rally and once again a possible breakout up. Dollar is falling alot inversely but strangely equities fall anyway. (bullish for gold?)
In theory this might mean it might turn around soon but really the index lost various levels of support recently which should be important

For example ftse has a weakness between 4900 and 4500 where negatives become exaggerated however unfair that is.

In summary, its a bit of a mess. It'll level out at some point though Iam expecting BP to fall again at some point just to shake people out a bit prior /during any news, which will help the index continue down





Fortunately I had some bid speculation on Hyder today as its sits alongside swg which has an actual bid. I thought it was a reasonable to sell the rest of what I have though I'd rather not give up a good company I need the cashflow to justify recent/future purchases and I thought it was at some resistance.

Could continue higher still to near 400 but I guessed not now (despite having lower volume at this price which exaggerates direction like ftse is lower volume here also I believe)

some of the highest market cap companies in the S&P 500 (and the S&P 500 is market cap weighted) are very low P/E stocks: XOM, the largest stock in the index, has a forward P/E of just 4. Microsoft (MSFT) has a forward P/E of just 10. GE has a forward P/E of just 10 and IBM has a forward P/E of just 10.

http://blogs.wsj.com/financial-adviser/2010/07/01/seven-reasons-the-sp-500-is-going-to-1500/

# $usd could find some support at 85.2, no idea what euro is doing except it looks like a breakout, 1.2523 negative trend and resistance about 1 hour ago via web






premier oil looks like it could break out. now owner of oil field with 800m barrels in north sea http://yfrog.com/j2img12779856440484573828g about 3 hours ago via web


Chart looks good to me, triangle with support from 200dma (orange line) about 3 hours ago via web

fairtrade

StevieJ wrote: »

Anyone know of any other reason for the price collapse apart from the general malaise?

The European Central Bank saying all loans must be repaid today and it will not bail out anyone henceforward. Mining stocks are also on the downgrade because of fears over the economy in China.

turbobob

General rout of pretty much everything this afternoon following the worse than anticipated PMI and housing figures from the US. BP was actually the only gainer in the FTSE100 last time I looked -

Stavros_3

The FTSE 100 is down a 1000 points since its recent rally. My folio has sure taken a hit

turbobob

Pretty impressive short covering rally happening today.