UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

sabretoothtigger

Seems like a repeat of last week. Its looking like it'll break the downtrend thats been around since April. 1090 & 1105 is above and 1065 is where it should be to keep on doing the same as it has every week till now

The old 1066 uptrend point has become 1076 which the SP500 just rose from now on open, its an increasingly tight range I guess but the boundaries are hardly sacrosanct


New index members including CEY - http://www.fool.co.uk/news/investing/2010/06/11/commodities-is-in-tourism-is-out.aspx



I sold up on commodities generally and bought Hyder (engineering is this years best performing sector Questor says) and some more BP so Im holding about 5% overall with an average price of 437 now which seems reasonable to me

Sold HOC and CHK and a commodity fund as sterling is doing slightly better I guess this has been justified somewhat

cloud_dog wrote: »

FRES is in an up channel and could still drop to 860p - 850p and remain in its uptrend.

I have it in a wider band I guess, positive till 808 or 786 even. 1067 would be the top price to match that.

silver itself seems to be going up? above support 18.11
I only sold hoc for the sake of cashflow and because it was fair value (just now, still a grower I think) ,in theory silver is volatile but now I dont really have any


I remembered one reason why I sold hoc, the SLV chart looks near resistance but its debatable as short term futures look bullish?


very positive close, up against resistance and top of trend. It could break upto 330 /323 quite easily I think. Its beaten the 200 day average
downside is 267 to 251



Hyder also closed very positive which I had been holding out, a rough target of about 303. I would have sold for 295 but my swing account had registered me as having zero shares while they were subject to a limit order (at 300)

So market closed before I could cancel and sell up , generally Ive found x-o people cheap and cheerful to use



For the world cup barclays and halifax are offering £5 commission on share dealing


BP political pawn - http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1518643352&play=1



Silver SLV on varying timescales, it does seem pretty bullish oh well

http://img820.imageshack.us/img820/3792/slv.png
http://img534.imageshack.us/img534/2269/img12762715514428.gif
http://img149.imageshack.us/img149/5578/img12762731595498.gif
http://img9.imageshack.us/img9/9021/slvshortterm.gif

lvader

So pretty much everyone expected a sell off today on the US markets, they even had the excuse of worse than expected retail sales. So on cue the markets went against grain and ended up. :rotfl:

sabretoothtigger

Apparently it was not totally unexpected to some as each selloff low has occurred on descending volume (which makes for a macd divergence (ie. market went down and this bullish indicator kept on going up))

http://img823.imageshack.us/img823/4121/6rp85g5663640.png


Currency is the worlds biggest market so its probably more to do with that really.
Options expire friday this week I think ? I had all my dollar index info wiped because of that but I redrew on just the last week and its in a downtrend for now

Euro starts this week not at the bottom of its range for once. Which sounds good but it means we have far more leeway for it to turn down again or it can continue to recover of course


Some discussion on BP:

questor wrote:

There are many reasons why analysts are saying you should buy shares in BP. They argue that the £50bn plus wiped off its share price is out of kilter with what the clean-up will eventually cost and that the company has the cash generating ability to deal with its obligations.

However, there are unknowns – such as US litigation and the US barring BP from future licences – that are unquantifiable. The well continues to leak and the dividend is at risk.

If you are not brave enough to take a risky punt and buy BP then you should take a serious look at buying shares in Royal Dutch Shell. The environmental and political disaster in the Gulf of Mexico has combined with concerns about European sovereign debt and the potential for a double-dip recession to drag the shares lower.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/questor/7823108/Cheap-Lookers-is-a-place-to-park-your-cash.html

UK-Analyst.com wrote:

(BP.). My initial reaction was to hold back from buying shoulder to shoulder with the "ridiculously cheap" brigade. And, as I write, the stock is down another 100p at 395p.

However, I reckon The Commander in Chief is overegging it such that the market actually believes that he can suspend not merely diplomatic nicety but law. And he has not got that in mind. (He slightly reminds me of Elizabeth Bott.) So the inescapable fact intrudes: this is that BP is ridiculously cheap and that, when the dust settles or the oily globules have been scooped up, the share price will be a lot higher. Certainly, way past 500p.

Looking at the big four weekly prices for some guidance on the whole index, looks neutral to positive.

Vod is 140 now and I see it unrestricted between 132 and 146
HSBC is 645 and a range 637 to 693
BP at 395, who knows but 365 to 484 maybe
RDSB at 1710, 1643 to 1750



Just sold the Hyder shares I messed up on friday for an extra 4p a share so a nice mistake this time.
Briefly considered holding as they could get another 10%, should even but 300p was my price objective when buying at 250 and thats 20% gain in 8 trading days which is more then reasonable for a swing trade so kept to the plan.

Pretty volatile graph at the moment but I see them above support, still hold a few like I have for the last year but took tony's advice this time and traded some for once

Overall I dont really believe in this latest rally but typically Ive always been too pessimistic in the past but I dont feel there is momentum to this upswing, gravity is down! despite evidence of a trend break or breakout happening

bobbyj_2

keep your eye on BEOWULF MINING (BEM) which is listed in Sweden as well as london. 3.75p so it's a tiddler but the chap who presented it to me is convinced he's sat on a 'life changing' share and he got me into GKP under 10p - although he advised taking profits at 45p :-(
I'll put some thorough research up later on but basically they have a very large Iron Ore JORC proven resource up in an area of Sweden very prevalent in ore.

Geebee

JeffersonGrif reported to [EMAIL="abuse@moneysavingexpert.com"]abuse@moneysavingexpert.com[/EMAIL]

lvader

It looks like the correction has ended and the bull run is set to continue on. S&P500 hits 1115 and the Nasdaq above 2300. Greece downgrade treated as a non event.

sabretoothtigger

Only short term, Im not sure the bigger story is set to continue right now. The euro hit bottom but its not beaten the fall overall


BP is continuing at its most negative pace http://img199.imageshack.us/img199/9043/img12766920772066.gif
http://img256.imageshack.us/img256/2555/img12766920649351.gif

Euro is challenging the recent positive move at 1.225 or below
http://img691.imageshack.us/img691/3379/img12766927931057.gif

Greece was always a non event but it draws parallels to many governments and their debt to spending. There isnt any safe place to put money


I read about BEM before, seems reasonable but didnt catch my attention apart from that . EMED is about as cheap as it gets right now how about that

Very impressive FRES, top of its range I think but silver continues up also
Hoc is also capped but ultimately if silver keeps upwards it'll pressure price up
HOC is the more undervalued but then they had some downwards revision to mining I think

PetroPavlovsk pog gains are capped and cey has broken out as mentioned previously so not sure where that will end but it has alot of space above in theory



ISF weekly



This top just now has good confirmation, Im not sure it can be beat on low volume ? (check out the size of green bars that cross the lines previously)


[orange line is 40 weeks or 40x 5 = 200 days average price. Its flat which shows slowing momentum

Gradient is down of trend lines]

lvader

Even doom merchant Marc Faber is positive on stocks at the moment although he favours the Asian market. I think we should be OK now until around September.

sabretoothtigger

Im never sure unfortunately, theres alot going on at the moment.
My general idea is 13th of July earnings season start to be the fulcrum of present market direction

Currently, the UK borrows £1 for every £4 it spends and the deficit stands as the highest of all the G20 leading economies.

I wonder if it will mean much in total but should cause some spikes I guess. I hope they dont mess up CGT too much



The Euro gapped upwards today (and dollar down) due to China promising to revalue their currency but at the same time the chart says its due to fall back again.
Todays action was a reflection of that with a steady loss and negative close on american markets.

Very unusual market day, effectively doubling back on itself but very much linked to currency flow, etc
http://img267.imageshack.us/img267/8007/img12771563656417639870.gif


FTSE closed today 5299. The futures price now is 5251. I see lows of 5203/5194 & 5275 topside maybe :huh:



I noticed the thread has gone pretty quiet, did everyone wise up or maybe waiting for better bait





A Guide to Japanese candlestick charts:, probably one of my best decisions in the last year was switching to these. http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:introduction_to_candlesticks

lvader

The US had got a little ahead of itself and the extra uplift from China just caused a bit of profit taking. I think this leg of the bull run will be led by Asia and China in particular.

How cheap is Shell with Oil near $80 a barrel? Cheap as chips.