UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

sabretoothtigger

I was just going to say about Marc Faber, he is positive on stocks because cash is risky he says (inflation , devaluation, etc) . Very good insight by that guy but I dont think he is positive on anything really :laugh:

lvader wrote: »

Even doom merchant Marc Faber is positive on stocks at the moment

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Greece was always a non event but it draws parallels to many governments and their debt to spending. There isnt any safe place to put money

Another 'bear' mentioned this time last year also is Meredith Whitney. Tons more mainstream then Faber -
Meredith Whitney Doesn't See `Earnings Power' at Banks
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pfzoDAJceQI

How cheap is Shell with Oil near $80 a barrel? Cheap as chips.

You aint wrong. Thats the basic reason for buying BP too. They still make money everywhere but usa but the share price is cheaper now then when oil was $30. If right now the oil price went down 20 or 30 dollars it'd be real nasty for them I think

Ultimately I agree with you and marc faber, shares, oil will be good investments better then cash just not sure on exact timing.

world gdp will be positive no matter what I reckon, the chinese currency rise is very bullish in theory but its not immediate. Before any bullrun theres a bear trap

1echidna

Shell? Exposed perhaps if the Americans were to reassert their monopoly on the international oil industry. Wouldn't put it past them, when they are in a somewhat sore, lean and mean state from the recession.

cloud_dog

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

A Guide to Japanese candlestick charts:, probably one of my best decisions in the last year was switching to these. http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:introduction_to_candlesticks

Yeah, would echo this. I use stockcharts.com as my prefered site of reference for charting and have candlesticks as my default charting setting in iii etc.

lvader

Some good news for oil stocks.

Deepwater Drilling Ban Lifted by New Orleans Federal Judge



http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-06-22/u-s-deepwater-oil-drilling-ban-lifted-today-by-new-orleans-federal-judge.html

cloud_dog

The frequency and number of post on this thread have reduced significantly during the recent past.

I wonder if this thread could be used as a leading or useful indicator for investor sentiment. Perhaps we have invesnted our own investor index based on investment appetite?? The 'MSE Greed Index'

sabretoothtigger

I think people on this thread can be said to be 'smarter then the average bear' though its never easy to translate that into actual results Ive found



Tony is probably on holiday again, hence the ftse is falling.


Right now Im seeing Euro Dollar exchange rate as being even more positive then last week, it is lower but really more important is that it has not fallen alot. Within the context of 6 months of Euro gloom its actually acting positive.

Heres the accompanying 4hr bar chart, look for 1.236 to be maintained otherwise it failed I guess
http://img94.imageshack.us/img94/2231/img12776792378000.gif


Interesting article on options for investment trusts, seems even ordinary brokers deal these things
http://www.fool.co.uk/news/investing/investing-strategy/2009/12/14/a-perfect-investment-for-optimists.aspx



Recently sold a bit of TEP IGG TATE and bought AAL which fell but I mostly funded that with LLOY which fell even more so I dont feel so bad about that

Looking this week to buy back LLOY and also BG I think could be good also have bought CHK again as I think the natural gas price has beaten its falls though with such massive supply that would surprising


Sunday Times says 800m barrels of Oil found in the North sea by Encore Oil. Biggest find in 9 years


Why gold is going to new highs - http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2010/06/gold-daily-chart-form-of-cup-and-handle.html

cloud_dog

Will put my stick in the ground....

I started light selling in to the recent top and am now looking to significantly reduce my exposure to stocks (have reduced another 20% today). Will retain some exposure to my favoured PM stocks (but will have reduced them shortly).

Part of my reasoning is that there appears to be a lot of negative sentiment, some of which is only (?) TA, and the other part is that I will be on hols in a couple of weeks and wont be able to monitor things so closely in the run up and whilst I'm away.

turbobob

You're probably right to reduce exposure in this sort of market. My hunch is that equities will move in sideways range for a while, but really it's just anyone's guess. There doesn't seem to be particularly good news from anywhere though, and I get the feeling any bad economic news will not be ignored.

Some news coming up this week:

28/06/2010      09:00 EU M3 Money Supply y/y
                09:00 EU Private Loans y/y
28/06/2010      13:30 US Core PCE Price Index m/m
                13:30 US Personal Spending m/m
                13:30 US Personal Income m/m
29/06/2010      13:55 US Redbook
29/06/2010      09:30 UK Net Lending to Individuals m/m
                09:30 UK Final Mortgage Approvals
                09:30 UK Money Supply
29/06/2010      10.00 EU Business Climate
                10.00 EU Business and Consumer Survey
29/06/2010      15:00 US CB Consumer Confidence
30/06/2010      07:00 Uk Nationwide house prices
30/06/2010      09:30 UK Final GDP q/q
                09:30 UK Current Account
30/06/2010      10:00 EU CPI Flash Estimate y/y
30/06/2010      13:15 US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
30/06/2010      14:45 US Chicago PMI
30/06/2010      15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories
01/07/2010      09:00 EU Markit Manufacturing PMI
01/07/2010      09:28 UK CIPS Manufacturing PMI
01/07/2010      13:30 US Unemployment Claims
01/07/2010      15:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI
                15:00 US Pending Home Sales m/m
                15:00 US Construction Spending m/m
                15:00 US ISM Manufacturing Prices
01/07/2010      15:30 US Natural Gas Storage
02/07/2010      10:00 EU Unemployment Rate
                10:00 EU Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate
                10:00 EU PPI m/m
02/07/2010      13:30 US Non-Farm Employment Change
                13:30 US Unemployment Rate
                13:30 US Average Hourly Earnings m/m
02/07/2010      15:00 US Factory Orders m/m

The ISM (Institute of Supply Management) data could be interesting.

Baz_2

It's carnage today.

I wouldn't care but I was told the market would fall around the date of the general election and I decided to just sit on it.

I wonder how far its going to go.

fairtrade

Baz wrote: »

It's carnage today.

I wonder how far its going to go.

..and the European Central Bank wants its loans repaid by Thursday.:eek: