UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

lvader

The correction has started.

tradetime

StevieJ wrote: »

I think you have been watching this Tradetime.

The benchmark measure of U.S. equities closed above its January high of 1,150.23 for two consecutive weeks on higher- than-average trading volume, after failing to stay above that level in the previous week. That breakout confirms the S&P 500 has entered a new phase of its yearlong rally and may reach 1,325, said Stockton, who boosted her projection from between 1,220 and 1,230.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20603037&sid=asmvHeRC_MA8

Yeah saw that, came out yesterday, quite interesting because she gets her targets differently from me, but arrives at the same figure more or less. According to the program she uses a measured move off of the previous advance, not a technique I've used other than for very defined patterns such as flags, double tops, and H&S etc so I don't know.
My projection comes off a simple Fib extension that fits reasonably closely with a likely supply level.

As more and more people start putting out bullish targets we will have more risk of a failure occurring, to resurrect the bear side.

tradetime

lvader wrote: »

The correction has started.

How much of a "correction" are you looking for?

lvader

Nothing big a 5-10% correction might be even healthy for the longer term outlook. But it seems even bad US job figures can't get enough bears out to affect the stocks much.

tradetime

Yes a correction would be "healthy" for the market, shake out weak hands and allow fresh money to enter more confidently. Be aware that this is the lead into a big holiday weekend in the US the market can do anything here, and it will be meaningless, most traders will wrap up their positions today and finish the week early. Today also marks end of quarter.

sabretoothtigger

Anything is possible, I like the amateur videos of using parabolic mirrors to focus light for purposes like that. Apparently you can cover satellite dishes with high quality sticky foil, works better in Nevada then here no doubt but still


My CHK shares are showing 50% gain which seems to be less about the slight recovery they are having in price and more to do with the broker quoting an exchange rate of over 2 pounds to a dollar.
Who knows some day that could be real, I guess they would not honour this if I sold now

A real gain is Cairn energy shares which are up 40% in about a 6 weeks since feb they have more then regained their previous highs. Very big movement for a ftse 100 company, indian oil


Excellent trade on GRT that sounds Tony, how do you tell the bottom. Do you judge volume, watch charts, the level 2 data or ?


The broker just fixed the exchange rate, so back to flat on chk. A Commoditys trader says this kind of brief rally is common so Im still not sure if I would sell and switch to IID if possible as that has less risk


SP500

Im told 1240 area is a target on drift up dynamics, even if it falls after. The reasoning being fib levels from the big fall and resistance around that area.
My own chart seems to draw similar conclusions I guess, its just I always have disbelief at how the market is on autopilot
http://img707.imageshack.us/img707/7418/img12700477710449778203.gif

Its true there appears an air pocket in volume, 125 for spy topside
http://img717.imageshack.us/img717/5184/spy.gif



Cable and Euro/Yen appear to have broken downtrends, has to be taken as bullish markets in action I think [cable is still below march 1st so its still maybe]



Gartmore frontrunning - http://www.citywire.co.uk/personal/-/news/money-property-and-tax/content.aspx?ID=391431&re=8977&ea=249194



Reputation counts for alot but its not a material loss so I guess a big fall is likely over played but Im not good at judging these things like Tony.
TA wasnt giving clues imo




OIL vs GAS - http://www.etftrends.com/2010/03/natural-gas-etf-poised-gain.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+etftrends-feed+(ETF+Trends)

tradetime

LOL, I assume that is with iii, I have the same, they are quoting the current price in US$ and the purchase price in Sterling I noticed that last night. Looks like they have just corrected it

SP500

Im told 1240 area is a target on drift up dynamics, even if it falls after. The reasoning being fib levels from the big fall and resistance around that area.
My own chart seems to draw similar conclusions I guess, its just I always have disbelief at how the market is on autopilot
http://img707.imageshack.us/img707/7...0449778203.gif

Yes 1228 is the 61.8% retrace of the entire move down and marks the start of the waterfall, where we just dropped off the cliff, so likely still a supply level until proved otherwise.Above that 1325 is the 100% Fib extension off the last retrace. Everyone needs a reason to act, and a point to act at, price levels simply provide the focus point, it's up to us to work out what the action will be, buy or sell.

tonygee_3

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Excellent trade on GRT that sounds Tony, how do you tell the bottom. Do you judge volume, watch charts, the level 2 data or ?

Only gut instinct,try to spot a reversal(it past thru my £1 floor then returned)Not for fainthearted

tradetime

Nice little ranging day, pretty meaningless in the big picture. Some pre-holiday profit taking in the afternoon as traders locked down their positions. Interestingly there is a major jobs number, Non farm payrolls, out on Friday when the market is closed, so everybody will have plenty of time to mull that over before reacting. US$ broke a minor (previously violated) trendline and is still trying to hold 81.3 a failure here is very possible given the trading conditions, would expect the trendline at about 80.5 to hold in that case.

bobbyj_2

HVE news out, now this could be a right old recovery story.