UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

tradetime

tradetime wrote: »

US$ Index now at 80.8, well on it's way to the 80.5 or as it is now 80.6 trendline of the rising channel.
.

Off the channel support shorts scamper to cover US$ remains on target for 83 before year end, Sadly I made no money off this, into a holiday weekend, too risky a play for me all my currency plays are closed and equity plays locked down, but I thought I'd share it anyway in respect of those ballsy enough to take that on.



S&P remains on target for somewhere between 1230 and 1328, FTSE 6200 - 6300. before year end, watch for volume as a contra indicator now. Everybody has been Wah wah wah, no volume on the rally. It's a point but at the end of the day price pays irrelevant of volume, if there is a spike in volume at this stage I would close all longs, but thats just my opinion..


Fair disclosure I hold SSO from $35 exercised on an option sale and from $38 on my own buy. I have scaled out of some of my position at $40 and $42 and have locked down the rest of my position into the weekend with SDS at $30.60

US markets are open today, I expect the upwarrds trend to re-establish at some point this week

cloud_dog

tradetime wrote: »

US markets are open today, I expect the upwarrds trend to re-establish at some point this week

TT, there is lots of 'talk' around PMs (Gold) getting ready to rise imminently. If your prediction around the US$ comes to fruition (the chart seems to support this) abnd the 'talk' comes true, we would be back in an environment where the US$ and PMs are rising together; not the norm.

sabretoothtigger

I did think strong dollar would have more effect on commodities but it hasnt.
Ive heard its down to international demand from countries outside the dollar and outside the dollar index so emerging economy commodity demand

At some point one of the two will prove weaker I guess


Ive been looking at isa funds and Ive managed to convince myself Japan represents the best value at the moment in terms of potential upside
http://img405.imageshack.us/img405/9499/nikb.jpg

http://img709.imageshack.us/img709/247/japanjt.jpg

If the Yen did get substantially weaker I wonder how that outflow of currency would change the world and also trade balance. The pacific economy and trade between china and japan seems likely to change but its beyond my reckoning really but a few fund managers seem to have interesting theories on this. A big point being shorting Japanese bonds has very little risk to the potential reward

Nikkei was closed today I guess


The other alternative to Japan for me is tech stocks, also a long term downtrend but great unique potential to service world economic growth.

Unless USA continues the falls of friday some more I wont go with this. Sell on the news following jobs numbers seems unlikely though they werent that positive were they ?

MSFT downside target is $28 but its already retracted from march lows and risen strongly on [strike]friday [/strike]thursday!

INTC is at support, it retracted from 23 like I thought it might but right now I wouldnt be so interested again unless it came back to $20 which is a 10% fall and unlikely today, week or this month even I guess


Apple I dont even follow but that stock is short term probably not great value either, like the ipad.

Looked at the graph and it needs to fall about 7% to $22 to be worth buying I think. Its most negative move is to go sideways so if that happens it needs to consolidate for 6 months since its now done so well since Feb

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/isas/7474099/Questors-tips-for-self-select-share-Isas.html


The other factor was euro vs pound, I thought euro could rise strongly perhaps and be good value now (comparatively) The euro companies I like in this index are in the minority though so probably wont do this



Where do the blue vertical bars come from on the $$ chart, target estimates right






http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Why-Stocks-are-Extremely-etfguide-3274078168.html?x=0&.v=1





^^ The conclusion of this chart (or how its been drawn at least) would be bullish I think


[each bar is that days movement, when theres no bar or very little it means market didnt really move which is a kind of statement in itself like a storm brewing perhaps]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doji



http://stockcharts.com/help/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:introduction_to_cand

tradetime

cloud_dog wrote: »

TT, there is lots of 'talk' around PMs (Gold) getting ready to rise imminently. If your prediction around the US$ comes to fruition (the chart seems to support this) abnd the 'talk' comes true, we would be back in an environment where the US$ and PMs are rising together; not the norm.

Yes, whilst not a common condition, it is possible for US$ and PM's to rise together. Had a lazy weekend, well more a party weekend, so have not analyzed across the markets. A quick look at the Gold futures seems to show price has popped up above the downtrend line from early December on April 1st so we have to see if there is follow through there, this week. Upper 1080's - low 1090's appears to be providing short term support and we have mid 1040 - 1050's to fall back on

tradetime

Where do the blue vertical bars come from on the $$ chart, target estimates right

Vertical blue lines on that chart approximate the lowest price of the flag, and from there project an approximate target on a measured move basis which currently would be about 83.3 from the last flag, which would also line up with the top of the current channel

ses6jwg

Nice rise on Rockhopper today

cashbackproblems

Does anyone have any opinions on HSBC Holdings UK (HSBA), the sp has slightly dwindled since their poorer than expected results, but still feel they should break the resistance of 700p within 6 months? Have a few k to spare and having lost abit on PMK recently am sticking to ftse 100 stock in the future!

sabretoothtigger

Sorry to hear about PMK, I thought they were successful. Pretty sure they have appeared on a few contracts notes Ive had.
Company looks smaller then fred goodwins pension ? Uk Stockmarket is being opened up to more companies I read



I looked at HSBC last summer in comparison to Standard Chartered who have a similar yield.

I decided on mostly my own reasons that SC have better prospects for growth.

Since then the two were quite similar until Feb and now March when they became opposites in behaviour.

Im not sure why HSBC is acting so negative but it doesnt look good to me. They've been falling the whole of March, whatever the reasoning the consensus is strong I would guess



The most important thing from the chart is that HSBC has a negative trend going back 4 years or so and SC less so. SC rose 33% since feb because its broken this trend now, so its a justified move imo

HSBC is really weak, it failed to beat the lows of pre crash 2008 about 4 times. They have a PE of nearly 30 ?
This was what made them look bad last July, the big money doesnt think the earnings are going to rise? Havent they capped their usa losses yet.

Im surprised how bad they look when they have listed in China now and also I think looking to move focus to the east in general

Nothings changed unless you know different, I dont usually look at hsbc.

I would expect it to start rising as it nears 640 or so and if it loses 630 thats probably bearish for the ftse as it has low volume below and could really fall some though I know of no news to justify that

[Deleted User]

I got back into the oil biggies yesterday first thing and also put an offer in on a house

No stress from the oils but plenty of stress re house hunting

I can only guess re ukx just now and that isn`t my style so am still realistic about being hunkered down behind the settee

bobbyj_2

cashbackproblems wrote: »

Does anyone have any opinions on HSBC Holdings UK (HSBA), the sp has slightly dwindled since their poorer than expected results, but still feel they should break the resistance of 700p within 6 months? Have a few k to spare and having lost abit on PMK recently am sticking to ftse 100 stock in the future!

Does make me laugh when somebody gets burnt in a tiddler and then declares only 'blue chips for me'. Should have started there and worked your way down, not seen some stuff put on here lately? SOLO (had to get in b4 test results there though like i did say), TMC, COV, HVE (a near 100% gain in 2 trading days), KEA. My guess you'll be out of the market shortly after seeing sideway movement in your stagnant blue chip portfolio - although this is what you may be after so why you're not scouring for the best fixed rate bonds i'll never know.

ps PMK biz model always flawed so best do research next time.