UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

turbobob

From quickly looking at that cloud I can see what you mean. I don't think it's a textbook example of an inverted H&S (three distinct valleys and two peaks) as there seem to be quite a few different ways you could draw it. Will have a closer look in a bit

Incidentally I bought some FRES quite recently.

turbobob

This is just how I've looked at it and others might look at it differently. I believe there was an inverse H&S pattern, but that pattern has now completed. Just bearing in mind that they should be distinct peaks and valleys, this looked about right. There was also a bull flag in March which is usually a continuation pattern.

The orange lines are drawn in to try to illustrate the inverse H&S.

cloud_dog

turbobob wrote: »

I believe there was an inverse H&S pattern, but that pattern has now completed.

Isn't the completion of an inverse H&S supposed to be very bullish for a SP?

turbobob

It is. Going by this guys method, and based on my interpretation of the pattern, the target would be around 916p (break out was at 780p on 1 March). Personally I'd just aim to ride the trend. Looking quite positive at the moment though

sabretoothtigger

This thread has made 100 pages by my reckoning, or 2000 posts! Being popular has its downsides ^^


Looks like Fres just broke a negative trend thats been in play since november [last week and it opened above this week to confirm]

On a daily basis its lost uptrend since feb. Its natural that'd it slow down at higher altitudes


I dont generally go for hns because Ive not been able to use it particularly for much benefit. Double bottom usually works a bit better and just general price channels I use all the time.

Fres does look bullish but really isnt it about the silver price and maybe also the dollar index though this doesnt seem to be such an influence so more

If my above theory is correct, we should have more upside then downside. Topside 920 to 940 and downside limited to 840 or so






I was considering LCG, EMG & DRX recently. I reckon its better to compare risk reward across several stocks and put them in competition for investment before deciding which one
All high dividend in theory and all suffering for various reasons and possibly representing value or a lost cause.


LCG cut their dividend altogether for now but may recover I think. The chart shows the deadline for big squeeze on the price is more then a month away, it would need to break a negative trend. Nasty chart but some support there. Reasonable cashflow I think

EMG is over 10% div and a blue chip in theory. The devil of the detail is its a hedge fund, very erratic and opaque it seems. Plenty of cash apparently. Chart said a broad negative trend was in play, could break out but could also fall so decided to go with,

DRX seemed the best choice, again a horrible chart and this company suffered from commodity shock. They produce 7% of uk elec from coal and suffered losses on speculation from their trading arm and also falling elec demand so a candle burnt at both ends hence the fall.
[DRX's price is also about coal vs the low price of gas, is coal really that bad a bet? ]


Of the three I think they were the most undervalued. They were tipped by questor which is not exactly the best personal reasoning but only a small position and relatively safe I think vs an otherwise maybe highly priced market

turbobob

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

EMG is over 10% div and a blue chip in theory. The devil of the detail is its a hedge fund, very erratic and opaque it seems. Plenty of cash apparently. Chart said a broad negative trend was in play, could break out but could also fall so decided to go with,

Man Groups AHL fund should do well when the markets it invests in trend nicely (up or down). When they move sideways it'll likely suffer draw down (scratched trades). This worth a read - http://www.mangroupplc.com/assets/pdf/about-man/understanding-managed-futures.pdf

StevieJ

I notice Shell is well outperforming BP today presumably as result of the increase in gas prices, it sure looks like a good gas prices play.

cloud_dog

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

[DRX's price is also about coal vs the low price of gas, is coal really that bad a bet? ]

Well the price of thermal coal is going up (up 38% in recent contracts) so it depends how much leeway they have to increase their prices and stay competitive against other electricity suppliers. Although my vague understanding of UK electricity supply is that we are not awash with spare capacity.

EDIT:

StevieJ wrote: »

I notice Shell is well outperforming BP today presumably as result of the increase in gas prices, it sure looks like a good gas prices play.

Yes, but it has underperformed BP over the last 3 - 6 months so, still a bit of catching up to do (hopefully )

sabretoothtigger

I dont think coal is in the CRB, strange

I noticed it was doing well recently, of course oil is very high

Ashraf_Laidi wrote:

Wach oOil-heavy CRB index of 23 commodities struggling at low 280s despite latest metals rally"

2010.04.09 10:24: DAILY CRB CHART Index (23 commodities) http://chart.ly/kqqkhy failed to break above the right shoulder resistance of 280, which corresponds with the 61.8% retracement of the decline from the December high to the February low. The CRB is based on 23 commodities, but is dominated by WTI crude (23%), followed by natgas, gold, copper, corn each of which has 6% share in the basket. We continue to draw attention towards oil prices and their expected underperformance relative to gold and metals. This helps support expectations for a short-term slide in CAD vs. USD, GBP.

cloud_dog

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

I noticed it was doing well recently, of course oil is very high

I beleive the dynamics around coal in the short, medium, and long term are very different to oil, and the price of coal will stand on its own merrits / supply constraints going forward.

(you can probably tell I've got a fair bit in coal atm)