UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

grumpycrab

Stavros wrote: »

FTSE 100 has broken through the 5700 level

Amazing - that's +45% in 12 months. I wish I could've had a bigger slice of that than I have done. But then I'm not an investor...

tradetime

US futures already suggesting another breakout, may have to raise my year's target for SPX based on the pace of this up move. Will have to check, but 1230 was low end and already we are less than 60 points from that, high end of that targeting would be 1300 - 1325 before year end after a correction of some sort from the 1230 area

Stavros_3

tradetime wrote: »

Yeah I expect 6200-6300 this year barring some black swan event.

Or Labour being re-elected :mad:

cloud_dog

Stavros wrote: »

Or Labour being re-elected :mad:

I don't think markets are that bothered, they just want certainty.

sabretoothtigger

Natural Gas Storage inventories in 7 minutes.
-37B was forecast last month and it was -11B instead, more supply then expected and this month its 10B forecast but Im figuring we may have an overplayed dynamic in action and even if the figure is high it'll be actually expected


Also I stumbled across another stock that looks much more appealing then CHK on the surface. It has a 8% dividend and they are a carrier I think

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=RGNC

Again its american but then so is half of shell or bp pretty much, its just they are listed here as is true of lots of commodity companies

I figure 8% makes it worth investigating and its badly priced considering they have revenues regardless of gas price?

I don't think markets are that bothered, they just want certainty

Whoever gets elected is going to have similar problems and likely do similar things. The government is not fully in control is my opinion because we have let reins get away from us on the debt to gdp ratio thats the whole point really, its unsustainable

worldtraveller

Stavros wrote: »

FTSE 100 has broken through the 5700 level

IMHO I don't see much more movement north over the next couple of months and expect another retreat of around 10% in the next few weeks. The market is getting ahead of itself and there's really no more certainty about the future of world economies than there was a year ago.

When all the Government smoke & mirrors, largely brought about by QE, has to come to an end, reality will hit.

sabretoothtigger

http://www.benzinga.com/191010/sure-looks-like-a-top-vix-nyse-dow-gold






Sounds similar to my simple theories



Gas inventory came in 11B only slightly above forecast, will this help gas company prices now or is this falling knife unstoppable


[USA Unemployment Claims slightly below forecast]

largely brought about by QE

QE, weak currency and a poor economy is not necessarily bad for nominal stockmarket prices. Its not very fair, ironic even but shares could be the best place to be

http://img146.imageshack.us/img146/3176/zimb.png
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=31035971&postcount=22

lvader

Looking at trade volume levels and the money pumped into buying gold it looks to me like lots of people have missed out on one of the greatest stock bull runs in modern history. If the current run continues for much longer I can see people ditching gold as it continues to drop in value, if that happens there will be no stopping this rampageing bull.

tradetime

worldtraveller wrote: »

IMHO I don't see much more movement north over the next couple of months and expect another retreat of around 10% in the next few weeks. The market is getting ahead of itself and there's really no more certainty about the future of world economies than there was a year ago.

When all the Government smoke & mirrors, largely brought about by QE, has to come to an end, reality will hit.

From an investment standpoint, there is certainly more downside risk here than upside, and from that standpoint investors would be wise to protect their gains as fit. I had expected that there could be some sort of meaningful correction from the 1150 level in the S&P500, and other markets from corresponding levels, however the market seems to have other ideas at the moment, and until proved otherwise dips remain buyable.for short term traders, for longer term I would probably lighten up on holdings.

sabretoothtigger

I was just shorting Euro Yen currency pair today because it looked like a good bet to short.

If this correlates to the wider market as some people say, then it could match dollar strength and some retractment in equity markets.

On a weekly basis Yen looks like it could strengthen vs the Euro, this would continue a trend going back to October 2009 but also would not be far off confirming falls since 2008 so I just figured its worth noting and seeing how markets perform with a possible currency tide change.

Euro/yen has been sideways since 5th Feb when we all can recognise there was a bottom also in equity


The neptune bet of GBP vs Yen still looks like it could rise which seems contradictory