UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

sabretoothtigger

That happened with RBS last year also and they went back down again.
Problem is when you own half the company, you cant really sell that quantity of gear at market price


More likely plan is what Ive read is the government makes a UK bank fund with all their shares in it and then they sell off units of that to interested institutions. They could easily raise billions with that route but they wont be able to sell everything.

NR is also been split up into a good bank that could be slotted in and also B&B good loans I think could be part of this fund

cloud_dog

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

What made you select this share and when did you buy it btw ?

First hooked on to WTN in 2006, unfortunately I can't remember the catalyst for that (possibly an article or something). They were basically a fairly small operation comming in to the position being a producer. They had issues (financing etc) which had lowered the price but fundamentally they were sitting on what could become a very profitable resource.

First purchase was in January 2007 and made a few more purchases during the first 6 months of 2007 (I think I had an average buy price of 84p). Sold 50% about a year later for 240p(ish), and rode the rest up selling out at 430p.

Then there was the credit crunch so I stayed out but monitored them, and the news comming through was very positive assuming demand would pick up (no certainty there).

Got back in in Jan 2009 at 35p. The timimg for this purchase was the same for most of my purchases around that time, the falls had been over done.

Linking this timeline back to a question you asked the other day... My initial purchases were done on company analysis and possible future growth (they weren't a big producer then), my re-purchase in early 2009 was triggered by the demand / supply information comming out regarding coal, especially metallurgical.

I still think WTN have a way to go. I have a price target of 450p. Having said that I am reconsidering this as there is the potential for it to reach C$10 (approx £6). I have nothing to really justify the £6 but the potential is there, especially with all the news around coal.

I mentioned in a previous post about BHP signin quarterley contracts and that the contract price was $200 per tonne, well the next contract is likely to priced at $240 per tonne. There was talk of coal (Met) reaching $300pt which I thought was pie in the sky but I'm not so sure anymore.

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

The chart for TMC looks good, if anything I wonder why they are cheap must be good reasons and they hold a net cash position ?

The mine basically wnet in to care and maintenance mode after the CC, therefore they are not producing therefore the SP reflected this. As bobbyj says they are undervalued and a price target of 91p is not unreasonable (I think they could go much higher but....). They are in going through the courts with one a customer who cancelled their off-take agreement which may play on the SP (although I think TMC will come out alright.

The recent run up is likely to be due to the re-commencement of mining.

Edit: sorry for the essay.

Edit, Edit: Meant to add, re TMC, the company is valued at £14m and they are sat on approx 2.75m tonnes of nickel (their share). Current Ni price just over US$10 per lb (2000lb to the US ton) equates to US$20k per ton. The maths looks great, they just need to deliver.

tradetime

Sounds like some very nicely managed position trades congrats Cloud. :beer:

sabretoothtigger

Interesting essay even, thanks. I would never have thought coal could be so profitable, black gold


A quick look at the chart reminds me of:

http://www.decisionpoint.com/tacourse/Parabolic.html

cloud_dog

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

A quick look at the chart reminds me of:

http://www.decisionpoint.com/tacourse/Parabolic.html

In my case I got out on the down leg on the first spike (00 on your chart, 430p on WTN).

tonygee_3

Well done cloud,lucky punt though,nothing to do with research/analysis.If you buy in panic you invariable do well(hence my cautious stance at moment)
Sadly those who toted JRVS on here not long back not so lucky

grumpycrab

fullstop wrote: »

Lloyds TSB shares are as of today ahead of the price the government paid to bail them out, how long for though?

Yes, I missed that one - that's nearly 20% rise this week. I thought I'd have a long time to wait to sell @ approx 74p. Just a bit higher...

tradetime

The upward grind continues.
Looking for Dollar support in the 81.3 - 81.5 area should this pullback continue.

Stavros_3

FTSE 100 has broken through the 5700 level

tradetime

Yeah I expect 6200-6300 this year barring some black swan event.