UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

tonygee_3

Its actually fallen by 9% today
Theyve added a Zero(x10)to old shareprice
IPF picked up a bit,typical I looked at (but didnt buy)
several fallers AHT,TNI,PVCS,LAD they all bounced up
Still should be opportunities next week

sabretoothtigger

I noticed one of the emerging funds I was moving into held part of a gold stock and I looked into it further and wondered why the parent company wasnt a higher price.

today I see it tipped, just thought I'd post. Anglo American, a good commodity play?

http://iball.iii.co.uk/2009/05/12/anglo-american-aal?campaign=tips0001&link=tips0001_anglo_259_258&cp_c=qvjk5z


Oh yea now I remember, they hold a large part of de beers and diamonds arent so attractive in a recession I guess

tonygee_3

Today FTSE sheds 122 points(almost 3%)
News of record public UK borrowing on top of global sell off
Bought TNI & AV.(and quite a few cases of LAGER from TESCOs:beer:)
Best to buy something on panics

sabretoothtigger

Is this a panic or a downtrend you reckon


You seem to buy something new everyday :laugh: What makes the case for you, a stock screener and charts?


Anglo American is up 10% since the above comment.

tonygee_3

Hi Sabre(been away for few days)
Reason I started this thread was to gauge peoples opinion of where market was heading.I originally thought 2 month rise followed by 2 month fall.Then(after looking at last recession charts) I could see a poss rally to August followed by correction.Ive actually sold most of my portfolio and buy something during panics,just incase markets 'take off'again

tonygee_3

My gut feeling is we will see falls soon(possibly new lows)thats why Im holding plenty of cash(banked profits)but because nobody really knows where were heading it pays to have some holdings.
I guess youre more of a funds man than individual shares,but how do you 'bank'profits in the good times or do you just let it ride for the long term?

tonygee_3

Regarding my selections,being contrarian I tend to go for distressed(panic sold)shares.I find the market has a short memory and before long these bounce and deliver good returns.I think buying into something that has performed very well can leave you exposed when profittakers get stuck in,for that reason Ive avoided commodities and banks lately.Ive also stayed away from tourism,housebuilders for time being

duck_3

tonygee wrote: »

Hi Sabre(been away for few days)
Reason I started this thread was to gauge peoples opinion of where market was heading.I originally thought 2 month rise followed by 2 month fall.Then(after looking at last recession charts) I could see a poss rally to August followed by correction.Ive actually sold most of my portfolio and buy something during panics,just incase markets 'take off'again

There will and are
Invest now

sabretoothtigger

tonygee wrote: »

My gut feeling is we will see falls soon(possibly new lows)thats why Im holding plenty of cash(banked profits)but because nobody really knows where were heading it pays to have some holdings.
I guess youre more of a funds man than individual shares,but how do you 'bank'profits in the good times or do you just let it ride for the long term?

We might be seeing the effects of inflation or currency devaluation.
This would cause stock prices to rise, I think cash should be avoided beyond short term and it might be more about being in the stocks which rise very fast vs the ones which just rise a bit.
Could get confusing but moving sideways over purely moving to cash might be the best strategy


I hear about lots of cash is going into the markets from index trackers and general investment.
Also pension funds and insurance companies are still investing in stocks, they might all be valuing these companies wrongly with false yields, etc but that is alot of momentum and until some real bad news appears it'll keep on coming I guess

But yea I have sold alot because how else can I buy at the bottom. I should have done this more coming out of the autumn lows but held a bit too much.

My general bias is always to the upside, shorting is for clever and/or rich people

I prefer trackers or indivual shares over managed funds. I dont like the entrance fees or spreads they have, but there is some real performers there

I have alot more time to comment on the forum then I do cash to invest but my general plan would to be long in general, wait for correct timing on western stocks in general but right now dont be afraid to enter emerging & commodity sectors and also exporting companies with good cashflow

If the dollar does have a general decline over the next year or so then I have stocks I would like to invest in there, exporters and technology but generally I'd avoid any big dollar commitment or stocks reliant on western markets in general.

I think their value will improve, theres no need to rush with the herd like right now

So Im short on the ftse index slightly, long overall still & sold some western based stocks back but not completely and Im looking to invest in things I believe might rise exponentially in future years or 'parabolic' is the new buzz word


A parabolic stock chart




Which website would you use for stocks?

tradetime

Which website would you use for stocks?

To do what?