Why house prices may fall another 38%

Wookster

Really2 wrote: »

It was you who said the bottom would be at the peak of unenployment not me.

I don't think the bottom will be 2009 or 2010. Maybe 2011/2012, but even then there will be high unemployment for an extended period while the economy rebalances.

Really2

Wookster wrote: »

I don't think the bottom will be 2009 or 2010. Maybe 2011/2012, but even then there will be high unemployment for an extended period while the economy rebalances.

Even if you do belive that it does not make people financialy inactive.
Your view is based on what you would do which I can understand.

But unforutnantly you can not judge the UK on what you or i would do.

Wookster

Really2 wrote: »

But unforutnantly you can not judge the UK on what you or i would do.

I don't at all.

I think this recession is definitely worse than the recession of the 90s, worse than that of the 80s, and of the 70s. As such, its going to be a long and drawn out...

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Lets be honest, nobody knows when we will hit bottom, the only thing you can look at is all the economic information that is out there, then make a judgement on what best suits you.

If I was staying in the UK, I would want to be still bobbing along the bottom in Q4 2012, because that's what suits me the best, my investments would have matured,. Will that happen ??, I have no idea really. We are in extraordinary times, we could be on the up in 2 years, or we could be heading for economic oblivion, in which case house prices would be way down the list of priorities.

Really2

Wookster wrote: »

I think this recession is definitely worse than the recession of the 90s, worse than that of the 80s, and of the 70s. As such, its going to be a long and drawn out...

Did you work through any of them?

Wookster

Really2 wrote: »

Did you work through any of them?

No.

What's your point?

HappySad

chucky wrote: »

exactly my point - you're making assumptions just like i am.

affordability is the key and... the key to affordability isn't just 3x or even 6x income - there are other factors that determine this

How do they measure affordability. Is there a form you fill in your income and outgoings? Is there somewhere where I can see how they calculate affordabilty????

Really2

Wookster wrote: »

No.

What's your point?

So how the hell do you know.

You are speaking purely on opinion. The cost of living in this recession is much lower (inflation, IR etc)

So stop going on like you know because you dont, people always fear the future and look at the past with rose tinted glasses.

Ask some one who lost their job in the 70s 80s or 90s and see how they got on.

The low IR at the moment mean a lot can still survive on one wage unlike then.

I hate the "uni" crowd going on how worse it will be this time without living through one.:rolleyes:

chucky

HappySad wrote: »

How do they measure affordability. Is there a form you fill in your income and outgoings? Is there somewhere where I can see how they calculate affordabilty????

Yes there is; have a peak here
http://www.york.ac.uk/inst/chp/hsa/papers/kiddle.doc

otherwise speak to this chap - he know everything http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/member.html?u=220762

Wookster

Really2 wrote: »

So how the hell do you know.

You are speaking purely on opinion. The cost of living in this recession is much lower (inflation, IR etc)

So stop going on like you know because you dont, people always fear the future and look at the past with rose tinted glasses.

Ask some one who lost their job in the 70s 80s or 90s and see how they got on.

The low IR at the moment mean a lot can still survive on one wage unlike then.

I hate the "uni" crowd going on how worse it will be this time without living through one.:rolleyes:

I could say exactly the same to you... stop going on like you know - you don't! And the fact that you take the optimist's view simply illustrates that you do not understand why 1. we are in this recession 2. why it is so serious.

I don't know for a fact what will happen, no one does but I work int he financial sector and have a basic understanding of economics and the inter-relatedness of things financial and it really scares me where we are. The fact that if there hasn't been bailout part I the entire western financial system would have collapsed is terrifying.

Take your anger at the "uni" crowd elsewhere!