We’d like to remind Forumites to please avoid political debate on the Forum.
This is to keep it a safe and useful space for MoneySaving discussions. Threads that are – or become – political in nature may be removed in line with the Forum’s rules. Thank you for your understanding.
Debate House Prices
In order to help keep the Forum a useful, safe and friendly place for our users, discussions around non MoneySaving matters are no longer permitted. This includes wider debates about general house prices, the economy and politics. As a result, we have taken the decision to keep this board permanently closed, but it remains viewable for users who may find some useful information in it. Thank you for your understanding.
📨 Have you signed up to the Forum's new Email Digest yet? Get a selection of trending threads sent straight to your inbox daily, weekly or monthly!
Why house prices may fall another 38%
Comments
-
You can't talk about "the housing market" as a single entity. It has become pretty clear that the property BTL bubble led to the construction of tens of thousands of small inner-city apartments that are now almost impossible to shift. The demand was artificially created by BTL - remove that market and there are scarce few people queueing up to pay £200k for a set of door keys to a flat in a mostly empty building in what until last Wednesday was a demilitarised zone.
But what we have heard over and over again are first time buyers and families struggling to afford somewhere to live, and essential workers living miles from their job because of prices. Even in a recession that demand is still there - wages aren't crashing en masse nor is half the population out of work. Once things pick up again supply will once again outstrip demand of family housing in suburbs.
Thats not to say that prices will spiral rapidly upwards again, the bubble has burst. But if there are more buyers than properties for sale - and until we start building lots of new houses that will be the case - then prices inevitably will increase.0 -
where all mortgages where 6x income?
60% of property is mortgage free so that can be factored down even more
I could say exactly the same for Japan! What proportion of mortgages were 100 year?
Do you really think that something has intrinsically changed people's ability to afford houses to the extent that they are now on average valued at ~6X average annual salaries compared to the long term average of about 3.5X?
If so, what?0 -
I could say exactly the same for Japan! What proportion of mortgages were 100 year?
Do you really think that something has intrinsically changed people's ability to afford houses to the extent that they are now on average valued at ~6X average annual salaries compared to the long term average of about 3.5X?
If so, what?
exactly my point - you're making assumptions just like i am.
affordability is the key and... the key to affordability isn't just 3x or even 6x income - there are other factors that determine this0 -
I could say exactly the same for Japan! What proportion of mortgages were 100 year?
Do you really think that something has intrinsically changed people's ability to afford houses to the extent that they are now on average valued at ~6X average annual salaries compared to the long term average of about 3.5X?
If so, what?
Er, inflation expectations/interest rates. currently 1% were 15%. the maths are a little tricky:D'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher0 -
affordability is the key and... the key to affordability isn't just 3x or even 6x income - there are other factors that determine this
Exactly my point in #6 above.
Yes Stevie you are right - abnormally cheap money has meant that people can stretch themselves further, however the days of abnormally cheap money are over.
The pendulum has swung the other way and though - financing is hard to come by, making houses much harder to purchase than before.0 -
Exactly my point in #6 above.
Yes Stevie you are right - abnormally cheap money has meant that people can stretch themselves further, however the days of abnormally cheap money are over.
Are they? I would say this debt as got to be paid back so low rates are going to be long term I think just stricter lending.0 -
Are they? I would say this debt as got to be paid back so low rates are going to be long term I think just stricter lending.
No one knows how long base rates interest rates will be low. Lending will be stricter but having not priced in risk, I'd be very surprised if banks continued to make that mistake.
Where do you think the bottom will be?0 -
No one knows how long base rates interest rates will be low. Lending will be stricter but having not priced in risk, I'd be very surprised if banks continued to make that mistake.
Where do you think the bottom will be?
I would not call a date, but 25%-35% below peak.
But if you could get near that and if you could live with your self if it was a wrong decission, why not?0
This discussion has been closed.
Confirm your email address to Create Threads and Reply

Categories
- All Categories
- 352.1K Banking & Borrowing
- 253.5K Reduce Debt & Boost Income
- 454.2K Spending & Discounts
- 245.1K Work, Benefits & Business
- 600.7K Mortgages, Homes & Bills
- 177.5K Life & Family
- 258.9K Travel & Transport
- 1.5M Hobbies & Leisure
- 16.1K Discuss & Feedback
- 37.6K Read-Only Boards