Why house prices may fall another 38%

Wookster

Really2 wrote: »

I would not call a date, but 25%-35% below peak.

That assumes a fairly quick recovery economically.

Truly the optimist's view.

Really2

Wookster wrote: »

That assumes a fairly quick recovery economically.

Truly the optimist's view.

Why 10% unenployment leaves 90% employed.

If you think prices will follow the economy exactly you are wrong (care to explain today?)

Why is a 25-35% a "optomist's veiw" I presume you class your self as a reallist.:rolleyes:

StevieJ

Wookster wrote: »

That assumes a fairly quick recovery economically.

Truly the optimist's view.

No it isn't my prediction is -20% ignoring inflation of course.

Wookster

Really2 wrote: »

If you think prices will follow the economy exactly you are wrong (care to explain today?)

I don't think prices exactly follow the economy but I don't think they will bottom out until unemployment has peaked and there are no significant numbers of forced sales/ firesales.

Really2 wrote: »

Why is a 25-35% a "optomist's veiw" I presume you class your self as a reallist.:rolleyes:

Well I'd say 25% is an optimists view, 35% less so.

The IMF stated that proeprty was 45% overvalued in the UK. I doubt we will see a 'bull' market return until employment rises.

Really2

Wookster wrote: »

I don't think prices exactly follow the economy but I don't think they will bottom out until unemployment has peaked and there are no significant numbers of forced sales/ firesales.

.

Peak un-enployment is predeicted end of this year/start of next.

So you either agree with me or see 30% falls this year.

Wookster

Really2 wrote: »

Peak un-enployment is predeicted end of this year/start of next.

I think that really is the optimists view. Just like the predicted 2.8% contraction - its too optimistic! We had a 1.5% contraction in Q4 and that was in a good quarter (the Christmas quarter where spending is normally higher). If anything I would bet that pace increases at least for the first two quarters this year...

Really2 wrote: »

So you either agree with me or see 30% falls this year.

There is still 2010, 2011 and 2012... all of which will be very tough years.

StevieJ

The credit card companies seem to be doing well, all very confusing

Visa ($53.77, $4.64, 9.44%) reported a 35% jump in fiscal first-quarter net income amid strong increases in payments volume and processed transactions, especially from its international regions and debit operations. Meanwhile, MasterCard Inc. (MA, $150.74, $10.59, 7.56%) shares also rose as it reported fourth-quarter earnings that beat analysts' estimates.

Really2

Wookster wrote: »

There is still 2010, 2011 and 2012... all of which will be very tough years.

It was you who said the bottom would be at the peak of unenployment not me.

ad9898_3

I have to say I was slightly surprised today with the Halifax figures, however this would have to continue for 3-4 months to really hold any water, I don't see that happening. Although I'm sure it will be spun for all it's worth by VI's in the media. I'm a FTB'r and could buy what I want now with a 60% LTV, but buying property anytime in the next 18 months is still only slightly more appealing than eating a turd.

Even Halifax are saying 'don't believe our figures', they probably mortgaged one house in January for 155k . This could be the bulltrap of the curve, it seems to happen in every downturn.

Lets face it, prices were never going to continue down 2% a month indefinately, it just doesn't happen.

Wookster

ad9898 wrote: »

buying property anytime in the next 18 months is still only slightly more appealing than eating a turd.

Exactly! I'm waiting 2-3 years before I think seriously about property purchase.