Nationwide: prices down 1.4% in October, down 14.6% since last year

chucky

baileysbattlebus wrote: »

An interesting point, Nationwide's market share of mortgages has dropped to 7%, I'm not sure in the great scheme of things if that will have any bearing on their figures. I would imagine it could make areas where they don't have much exposure, or areas with small numbers of sales quite vulnerable.

HBOS/Halifax has market share of 20%

Abbey market share 26% - but publish no figures?

At the end of the day I suppose it doesn't really matter as both Nationwide and Halifax are pretty close anyway.

so there are people taking notice of property prices for a company that only has 7% of the market share and doesn't really cover all of the UK?

oh dear...

WTF?_2

chucky wrote: »

so there are people taking notice of property prices for a company that only has 7% of the market share and doesn't really cover all of the UK?

oh dear...

They were happy enough to accept their figures on the way up :rolleyes:

mitchaa

Generali wrote: »

Perhaps they rebuilt Aberdeen in Northumberland.

See signature:p I shall dig out Central Aberdeen price info aswell if you wish;)

The report in the article states Scotland has dropped 7.1% YOY, but yet Britain has just averaged a 15% YOY drop:D

So with Scotland having an effect on that 15% for the better, what are the real English drops?

Doesn't take Einstein to work out that south of the border is falling much harder than north.

It also doesn't take Einstein to work out the reason as to why when you take salary multiples and average home prices into the equation;)

Some people never learn;)

Generali

chucky wrote: »

so there are people taking notice of property prices for a company that only has 7% of the market share and doesn't really cover all of the UK?

oh dear...

Well 7% is quite a lot and it would appear a statistically significant sample as the Nationwide index is about the same as the Halifax (and the LR one the lag is taken into account).

If they were to diverge then I guess you'd have to ask yourself why they did and what significance it has.

WTF?_2

mitchaa wrote: »

See signature:p I shall dig out Central Aberdeen price info aswell if you wish;)

The report in the article states Scotland has dropped 7.1% YOY, but yet Britain has just averaged a 15% YOY drop:D

So with Scotland having an effect on that 15% for the better, what are the real English drops?

Doesn't take Einstein to work out that south of the border is falling much harder than north.

It also doesn't take Einstein to work out the reason as to why when you take salary multiples and average home prices into the equation;)

Some people never learn;)

Oh, if only those damned Sassenach could run their country as well as the Scots, eh?

:rolleyes:

Generali

mitchaa wrote: »

See signature:p I shall dig out Central Aberdeen price info aswell if you wish;)

The report in the article states Scotland has dropped 7.1% YOY, but yet Britain has just averaged a 15% YOY drop:D

So with Scotland having an effect on that 15% for the better, what are the real English drops?

Doesn't take Einstein to work out that south of the border is falling much harder than north.

It also doesn't take Einstein to work out the reason as to why when you take salary multiples and average home prices into the equation;)

Some people never learn;)

It was a joke. I quoted the phrase "house prices head south" and removed the word price.

Aberdeen's house market seems to track the oil price quite nicely. We'll see what happens to prices there as the oil price drops back to $30-50/barrel (if I'm right and that happens at least). Edinburgh is likely to feel the impact of the banking problems.

Maybe the rest of the country will escape unscathed.

IveSeenTheLight

Generali wrote: »

Aberdeen's house market seems to track the oil price quite nicely. We'll see what happens to prices there as the oil price drops back to $30-50/barrel (if I'm right and that happens at least). Edinburgh is likely to feel the impact of the banking problems.
.

I don't see how the Aberdeen Housing market tracks the oil price.
Sorry but that's just crazy.
We didn't see house prices double and then half again in the last year

The Aberdeen Oil Industry has diversified from being predominantly North Sea, to now predominantly working on Global Projects.

This massive increase in work actually means that there is a shortage of experienced personnel, meaning that average salaries are increasing as companies compete for perople with experience.

WTF?_2

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I don't see how the Aberdeen Housing market tracks the oil price.
Sorry but that's just crazy.
We didn't see house prices double and then half again in the last year

The Aberdeen Oil Industry has diversified from being predominantly North Sea, to now predominantly working on Global Projects.

This massive increase in work actually means that there is a shortage of experienced personnel, meaning that average salaries are increasing as companies compete for perople with experience.

Of course the housing market doesn't track the oil price exactly - housing markets are like a huge cargo ship whereas volatile markets such as oil are more like a jetski.

The point is that should the oil boom subside - as it shows signs of doing - places which have benefited from the stimulus on the way up are going to suffer badly from it being taken away.

Same as the 'City bonus' effect on the London market. It was massively pumped by the banking boom to the extent where people thought that the massively good performance of the last decade made it an special case with immunity from falls elsewhere. Nothing could be further from the truth - as the booming economy (and in particular the banking sector) collapses, it will be especially hard hit.

Edit:

PS. Of course, as Aberdeen is in Scotland, God's chosen country, it will of course also benefit from the general immunity that Scots people seem to think that they and all things Scot have from bad things which affect the English. Hmmm - remind me again what happened to the two big Scottish banks?

Cannon_Fodder

Will people never learn? Some people can't seem to remember...


http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn4158/is_19990902/ai_n14247976

"In the period from 1985 to 1988, when the rest of the country enjoyed the so-called "Lawson boom", the oil industry was in the doldrums and house prices were falling in Aberdeen by 10 per cent a year. People were so desperate they just handed in their keys at the bank"

Sept 1999 - "the town has Scotland's highest burglary rate"


http://emagazine.credit-suisse.com/app/article/index.cfm?fuseaction=OpenArticle&aoid=159513&coid=7805&lang=EN

"Constant Ups and Downs
Oil has made Aberdeen rich – and periodically driven it into crisis. When the oil price slumped to nine dollars a barrel in 1986, with production costs at ten dollars, Aberdeen went down with it. Workers moved out of the city, property prices plunged, retailing stagnated. The oil price subsequently recovered, and so did Aberdeen. In 1998 the price collapsed again, leaving the city facing another meltdown – but this time the consequences were less severe. Many supply companies managed to find customers abroad."



and the future?;

http://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/Article.aspx/908651?UserKey=

"But he had a warning for the short term: “You have to expect house prices will cool but not collapse in the way they have elsewhere. There may be redundancies, but I would not expect them on a huge scale.” "



Cooling because of Oil price, on top of a recession and financial crisis, could well = a crash.

Recession-proof? We will have to wait and see...

IveSeenTheLight

mewbie wrote: »

The Scottish Myth (no not Nessie, house prices), has been exposed.

http://www.theherald.co.uk/news/other/display.var.2456491.0.Housing_market_downturn_has_crossed_border.php

A class quote from Fionnuala...

"However, house prices north of the border have now also taken a more decisive turn south."

P'raps she's finally Seen the Light?

Let's trully see the light
Information on Scotlands house prices is hels in the Registers of Scotland Executive
You can see their statistics here

The latest released report is August 08. This shows the average price as £157,949
Checking YoY the report for August 07 shows the average price as £160,019

This is a YoY drop of 1.29%, not 7.1% as per Nationwides figures.

I'm generally happy to view Nationwides or Halifax's figures, but this maybe suggests that their market share can be skewed when the sale numbers are small