Nationwide: prices down 1.4% in October, down 14.6% since last year

baileysbattlebus

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Let's trully see the light
Information on Scotlands house prices is hels in the Registers of Scotland Executive
You can see their statistics here

The latest released report is August 08. This shows the average price as £157,949
Checking YoY the report for August 07 shows the average price as £160,019

This is a YoY drop of 1.29%, not 7.1% as per Nationwides figures.

I'm generally happy to view Nationwides or Halifax's figures, but this maybe suggests that their market share can be skewed when the sale numbers are small

Thanks - that really was the point of my original post about the size of Nationwide's market share - that it could be vulnerable in areas of with few sales or in areas where they have little exposure. But in the main it followed the same trend as HBOS/Halifax

mitchaa

Where is the information that nationwide only share 7% of the market?

I find that surprising especially when so many people and the media alike take that much notice of it. Surely then the only indicator that we should be taking any notice of are the official LR figures?

Unreliable data if only 7% of the market and as you say they can be skewed by the number of sales in the area at the time.

IveSeenTheLight

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

ISIL - I don't think anyone is disputing that Scotland's -ve HPI started later than England...so, yes August was maybe 'negligable'.

Halifax http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/17_10_08Scotland.doc
shows "Annually, house prices in Scotland fell 6.0% in Q3 2008"

HBOS should have a decent Scottish base, surely?

But we don't know how much momentum it has still to gather, or how long after England finishes being -ve, will Scotland continue...

I accept what you say above, however, we don't all go running to HBOS as the only supplier. In fact, neither of my mortgages are with them, so it's still a percentage supplier.

I was roughly working out with regards Nationwides figues. The have a reported 20% of the market. Roughly 20% of the 33,000 approved mortgages is 6,600 approvals.
Now given the UK population is approx 60 million and Scotland is 5 million, again roughly and theoretically only 550 of these approved mortgages are for the whole of Scotland. For Aberdeen, it's roughly 27.
With a guestimate 27 approved mortgages for Aberdeen, is it possible that these can affect the monthly average? I would think so, it would depend on what type and price of properties those 27 are for

I don't quite see the lag thing as historically from the HBOS spreadsheet I showed earlier, areas are vastly different and places like Aberdeen or Edinburgh etc, do not follow the UK average. It certainly didn't the last time prices dropped.

Getting back on Topic, if Scotland is only 7.1% drop, what regions are the other side of the National 14.6% average drop

Cannon_Fodder

ISIL -"The demand is global now. I know of orders into 2012 in South East Asia.
Do you know of an industry that has orders for 3 1/2 years later in this economic climate?"

Plenty of long-term/global contracts in IT. Doesn't mean they can't be shelved/deferred. Same for any industry.

Globalisation is what caused this mess, why should Oil avoid what happened to Banking - any French(?) oil companies out there waiting to pounce when a slump hits UK Oil companies, like the Spanish have cherry picked our Finance industry? - Paris is very nice in the spring...

You don't think that a growing list of countries going to the IMF for billions in loans is in anyway unusual and that demand for the product could fall - not just further, but for an unusually extended period of time?

Demand would fall in a normal recession. Throw in the financial mess many countries are in - "The World Bank classifies Ukraine as a middle-income state", yet they need loans...not just some third-world junta screwing up their economy...this will affect demand further. This is unprecedented stuff.

baileysbattlebus

mitchaa wrote: »

Where is the information that nationwide only share 7% of the market?

I find that surprising especially when so many people and the media alike take that much notice of it. Surely then the only indicator that we should be taking any notice of are the official LR figures?

Unreliable data if only 7% of the market and as you say they can be skewed by the number of sales in the area at the time.

This is just one of many reports - mind you although their share is 7% at the moment - it was never huge anyway.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2008/may/23/mortgages.banking

Cannon_Fodder

"Nationwide...Unreliable data if only 7% of the market"

That is VERY ironic, Mitchaa. LOL.

Just check your signature again... whose figures are you basing your "profit during this HPC" on...

Cannon_Fodder

"guestimate 27 approved mortgages for Aberdeen"...


With such numbers, it could be wrong in either direction. It COULD be a lot worse !! LOL.

WTF?_2

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

"Nationwide...Unreliable data if only 7% of the market"

That is VERY ironic, Mitchaa. LOL.

Just check your signature again... whose figures are you basing your "profit during this HPC" on...

pwned. :rotfl:

mitchaa

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

"Nationwide...Unreliable data if only 7% of the market"

That is VERY ironic, Mitchaa. LOL.

Just check your signature again... whose figures are you basing your "profit during this HPC" on...

My signature is to wind up the usual doormongers like !!!!!!;)

Im pretty sure when i do a bit of digging around my signature will also relate to HBOS figures and probably even better the official figures from Scotland that ISTL posted showing 2% drops in the last year;) (Not 7.1% like nationwide claim )

My signature is in direct comparison to what all you guys and girls quote and state every single minute you are on these threads.

Nationwide, just a little pinprick in the grand scheme of things but it's evidence enough:D

Try a little harder, you aint winning until my signature goes into the negative, long way to go yet

IveSeenTheLight

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

"guestimate 27 approved mortgages for Aberdeen"...


With such numbers, it could be wrong in either direction. It COULD be a lot worse !! LOL.

No it doesn't, it means the reported figures can be inaccurate.

If this month, most of those sold are around £100k then the figure is lower.
If next month there is a higher percentage of £200k properties the reported figures go up.
This doesn't mean that the average for the area is going up or down, but with so small figures, it could be reporting different types of property sold from month to month.

Another way

If you poll 1 guy on who is going to win the American election you might get 100% result for democratics
Poll a different guy the next month and you could get 100% republican
It's not a massive swing from one side to the other, its that they are polling different types of voters.

Any poll / statistic, is more accurate by higher numbers.
Lower numbers and they could lead to inaccuracies.