Nationwide: prices down 1.4% in October, down 14.6% since last year

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poppy10 wrote: »

Here we go - here's our Fionualla on todays's figures:



:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/constructionandproperty/3126307/23000-what-average-house-lost-in-a-year.html

Stabilisation in falls, I've said this before, but just for you fionaullalalalala, it doesn't matter if you hit the ground at 500mph or 700mph, the result is the same dear.

Cannon_Fodder

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

The last three months were -1.8%, -1.5% and -1.4%...
Up till now, the YoY graph has been comparing a -ve month with a +ve month, meaning that next month the YoY is comparing -ve with -ve.
...So predicting forward, your going to see a rough levelling off at 15% YoY falls.

You also have to factor in the small -ve moves;

2007 Oct 373.5 1.2
2007 Nov 369.1 -1.2
2007 Dec 366.2 -0.8
2008 Jan 363.8 -0.7
2008 Feb 360.9 -0.8
2008 Mar 356.8 -1.1
2008 Apr 352.6 -1.2
2008 May 343.5 -2.6
2008 Jun 340.2 -1.0
2008 Jul 334.7 -1.6
2008 Aug 328.7 -1.8
2008 Sep 323.6 -1.5
2008 Oct 319.0 -1.4

i.e. Dec07 -0.8, if rate of change stays similar, say -1.3%, thats another -0.5% to add to the YoY effect... Jan07 adds another possible -0.6%...


Could easily add up to around 18% YoY, as earlier suggested.

When we get to May 09, and that -2.6 is stripped out, then we might begin to see some "upward" movement, due to the -ve versus -ve effect.

IveSeenTheLight

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

You also have to factor in the small -ve moves;

2007 Oct 373.5 1.2
2007 Nov 369.1 -1.2
2007 Dec 366.2 -0.8
2008 Jan 363.8 -0.7
2008 Feb 360.9 -0.8
2008 Mar 356.8 -1.1
2008 Apr 352.6 -1.2
2008 May 343.5 -2.6
2008 Jun 340.2 -1.0
2008 Jul 334.7 -1.6
2008 Aug 328.7 -1.8
2008 Sep 323.6 -1.5
2008 Oct 319.0 -1.4

i.e. Dec07 -0.8, if rate of change stays similar, say -1.3%, thats another -0.5% to add to the YoY effect... Jan07 adds another possible -0.6%...


Could easily add up to around 18% YoY, as earlier suggested.

When we get to May 09, and that -2.6 is stripped out, then we might begin to see some "upward" movement, due to the -ve versus -ve effect.

I did say roughly level off at 15%, this can be a little higher and a little lower

While what you say is roughly true, a .5% difference from -0.8 Nov 07 to -1.3% in Nov 08 you do not simply add this 0.5% to the YoY drops.

If we set a stabalised 1.3% drop this is how the YoY will look: -

Nov 2008 -14.82%
Dec 2008 -15.00%
Jan 2009 -15.36%
Feb 2009 -15.94%
Mar 2009 -16.92%
Apr 2009 -17.74%
May 2009 -16.49%

So a predicted 1.3% consistant drop will see roughly flat but still going lower of 15%, decreasing more sharper in Feb, Mar and April to almost 18% before finally rising in May 2009
IF there is a constant 1.3% drop

mewbie_2

I discovered this useful affordability questionnaire the other day, can't post link for some reason, so have to quote in full.

Housing Costs Affordability Questionnaire
Q. Can I afford it?
A. No.

Generali

bryanb wrote: »

Hope someone can answer for me. Are the BS price drop figures based on mortgage amounts or on actual selling prices?

The Nationwide figures are based on the agreed price for house purchases at the time that the mortgage is agreed. It uses purchases made using Nationwide mortgages only.

As such it will have the following limitations:

- It won't capture prices for transactions not using Nationwide mortgages so will be weak in areas or markets where Nationwide is weak. It will be particularly under represented in the area of retirement homes where there are a lot of cash transactions.

- It will include sales that have gone to the mortgage approval sale but not continued to completion. That means, for example, that if a sale falls through because the purchaser was gazumped at the last minute, it will still be included in the figures.

- There will be a lag of a month or two due to the time gap between a mortgage being approved and the sale completing.

- Their seasonal adjustment has probably broken down due to the collapse in sales volumes.

I would expect them to disagree with that last statement.

chucky

and it won't include cash purchases too

Generali

chucky wrote: »

and it won't include cash purchases too

True. I tried to say that with my first point but obviously not that clearly!

mewbie_2

The Scottish Myth (no not Nessie, house prices), has been exposed.

http://www.theherald.co.uk/news/other/display.var.2456491.0.Housing_market_downturn_has_crossed_border.php

A class quote from Fionnuala...

"However, house prices north of the border have now also taken a more decisive turn south."

P'raps she's finally Seen the Light?

Generali

mewbie wrote: »

"However, houses north of the border have now also taken a more decisive turn south."

Perhaps they rebuilt Aberdeen in Northumberland.

baileysbattlebus

Generali wrote: »

The Nationwide figures are based on the agreed price for house purchases at the time that the mortgage is agreed. It uses purchases made using Nationwide mortgages only.

As such it will have the following limitations:

- It won't capture prices for transactions not using Nationwide mortgages so will be weak in areas or markets where Nationwide is weak. It will be particularly under represented in the area of retirement homes where there are a lot of cash transactions.

- It will include sales that have gone to the mortgage approval sale but not continued to completion. That means, for example, that if a sale falls through because the purchaser was gazumped at the last minute, it will still be included in the figures.

- There will be a lag of a month or two due to the time gap between a mortgage being approved and the sale completing.

- Their seasonal adjustment has probably broken down due to the collapse in sales volumes.

I would expect them to disagree with that last statement.

An interesting point, Nationwide's market share of mortgages has dropped to 7%, I'm not sure in the great scheme of things if that will have any bearing on their figures. I would imagine it could make areas where they don't have much exposure, or areas with small numbers of sales quite vulnerable.

HBOS/Halifax has market share of 20%

Abbey market share 26% - but publish no figures?

At the end of the day I suppose it doesn't really matter as both Nationwide and Halifax are pretty close anyway.